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Department of Statistic, Faculty of Science and Mathematics , Universitas Diponegoro Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro Gedung F lt.3 Tembalang Semarang 50275
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Jurnal Gaussian
Published by Universitas Diponegoro
ISSN : -     EISSN : 23392541     DOI : -
Core Subject : Education,
Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM UNDIP.
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Articles 16 Documents
Search results for , issue "Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian" : 16 Documents clear
APLIKASI METODE PUNCAK AMBANG BATAS MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN DISTRIBUSI PARETO TERAMPAT DAN ESTIMASI PARAMETER MOMEN-L PADA DATA CURAH HUJAN (Studi Kasus : Data Curah Hujan Kota Semarang Tahun 2004-2013) Tyas Estiningrum; Agus Rusgiyono; Yuciana Wilandari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (456.846 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i1.8154

Abstract

The rainfall with very high intensity cause a lot of problem like flood, landslide and be a factor restricting of flight aircraft at the airport. One of the methods that can be use to analyze such extreme events is Peak Over Threshold (POT) with distribution approach Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) include in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). L-Moment method used for estimation of scale and shape parameter from GPD. In this research, data used is daily rainfall data of the Semarang city in 2004-2013 that recorded at the Meteorological Station of Class II Ahmad Yani Semarang. Daily rainfall data is analyzed each year during the rainy season. Result of analysis of the data shows rainfall there are heavy tail that indicates there is a possibility of occurrence extreme value. Return level obtained indicated occurrence of precipitation with very high intensity for the period of rainy season in 2006/2007, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012, 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 with intensity of rainfall 117,1905730 mm/day, 118,6389421 mm/day, 106,5032441 mm/day, 107,2133094 mm/day, 108,2262353 mm/day dan 111,2356887 mm/day.Keyword : Rainfall, Peak Over Threshold, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Extreme Value Theory, L-Moment, Return level.
PEMETAAN PREFERENSI MAHASISWA BARU DALAM MEMILIH JURUSAN MENGGUNAKAN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN) DENGAN ALGORITMA SELF ORGANIZING MAPS (SOM) Muh Najib Hilmi; Yuciana Wilandari; Hasbi Yasin
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (569.764 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i1.8145

Abstract

College is the highest educational institution and the role the intellectual life of the Indonesian people that the main purpose of academics. Not all colleges into their destination but only college that has a role, credibility and rank the best course of which it is their goal. This makes higher education marketing research approach to get attention and become the main goal of the academics in choosing a college. This research was conducted in order to determine with certainty attribute / emotional reasons academics in choosing college as their academic goals. The method used in this study were self-organizing maps with the Kohonen algorithm is a classification method. Kohonen SOM algorithm with learning rate used 0:05, 0.25, 0:50, 0.75, 0.95 and initialization of initial weight value and the value of the midpoint and 500 iterations with output 3 clusters are formed. Results clustering of SOM validated using Davies-Bouldin index with the best clustering results that DBI minimum (1.7802) with the learning rate is 0.95 and the cluster formed three clusters for the first cluster as many as six members, cluster-2 by 9 members and 3rd cluster as 5 members the results of clustering with top priority contained in the cluster to-2 with a mean (7.434) with the characteristics of each member is an emotional reason in choosing a major. Keywords: Self Organizing Maps, Kohonen algorithm, Learning Rate, Index Davies Bouldin, Cluster.
PEMODELAN TINGKAT INFLASI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN MARKOV SWITCHING AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY Omy Wahyudi; Budi Warsito; Alan Prahutama
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (364.647 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i1.8150

Abstract

The financial sector often under conditions of fluctuating due to changes in monetary policy, the political instability even just a rumor. The linear model cannot capture changes in these conditions, so the model used is Markov Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (SWARCH). This model produces value of transition probability and the duration of each state. Filtering and smoothing process performed to determine probability of the observation data in each state. Modeling about the inflation data in Indonesia was done. The model used is SWARCH (2.1) with 240 data. The probability of inflation rate switch from non crisis state to crisis state is 0.016621, while the probability of inflation rate switch from crisis state to non crisis state is 0.195719. Expectation value of the length time in non crisis state is 60.16 days and the crisis state is 5.11 days.Keywords :  filtering, smoothing, transition probability, SWARCH
SIX SIGMA UNTUK ANALISIS KEPUASAN PELANGGAN TERHADAP PERSEPSI KUALITAS PROVIDER KARTU GSM PRABAYAR Dina Rosmalia Listya Utami; Mustafid Mustafid; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (616.745 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i1.8100

Abstract

The company is currently competing industry in offering a good product in the form of goods or services in order to attract consumers. Competition industrial companies also occur in companies engaged in the telecommunications sector that influence the cellular telecommunications services company. In 2000 PT Indosat and PT Telkomsel was licensed as an operator National GSM 1800 as mandated by the Telecommunications Act No. 36/1999. In recent years, the Provider of Indosat and Telkomsel occupied the top two in terms of number of customers and the profit generated. This study aimed to analyze the level of customer satisfaction on the perception of the quality of the GSM prepaid card provider used by using six sigma method that becomes an approach to reduce the variability of the process through the use of statistical tools. In this study, the overall process is in a state that has not been well despite being in the category of satisfied but do not meet the targets used. DPMO results obtained from the Provider Indosat and Telkomsel to dimensions of technical quality and functional quality with a target of 8 each is 189718,8; 180625; 102343,8; 105250 with the sigma level 2,37; 2,41; 2,76 and 2,32. As for the dimensions of technical quality and functional quality with the target 9 on each Provider DPMO results obtained for 279750; 271666,7; 202083,3; 204666,7 with sigma level 2,08; 2,41; 2,33 and 2,32. These results are still far from the expected target is 3,4 DPMO and 6-sigma. Keywords: Six Sigma, DPMO, Service Quality, Customer Satisfaction.
PEMODELAN KURS MATA UANG RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR AMERIKA MENGGUNAKAN METODE GARCH ASIMETRIS Sulistyowati, Ulfah; Tarno, Tarno; Hoyyi, Abdul
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (411.729 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i1.8155

Abstract

One factor causing to slowing economic growth in Indonesia is the currency exchange rate. In Indonesia,the exchange rate of the rupiah against the dollar is always become an attention of society. To monitor the movement needed a mathematical model that can be used to forecast the rupiah exchange rate to the dollar. Data rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is a financial time series data has a non-constant volatility. One model that is often used for the prediction of these data is ARIMA-GARCH. In this study discussed about modeling the data rate of the rupiah against the dollar using asymmetric GARCH, such as exponential GARCH (EGARCH), Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) and Autoregressive Power ARCH (APARCH). Modeling the exchange rate against the dollar using all three types of the Asymmetric GARCH models produce the best models, the ARIMA ([4.5], 1, [4,5]) - APARCH (2,1). With the results obtained using the model for volatility forecasting that volatility decreased from the previous forecast but still be at its high volatility.Keywords : Exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, Asymmetric GARCH, volatilty
ANALISIS JALUR TERHADAP FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INDEKS PRESTASI KUMULATIF (IPK) MAHASISWA STATISTIKA UNDIP Malik Hakam; Sudarno Sudarno; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (414.358 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v4i1.8146

Abstract

Education is a priority thing everyone today. Education is implemented in learning, by learning humans can develop all the potential there is in him. Learning is always related to the achievement of learning, because learning is a process while learning achievement is the result of the learning process. In the course of learning achievement levels measured by GPA (Grade Point Average). Factors that influence GPA among allowance, age, value of the UN Senior High School, many organizations, the internet long, long time to learn. Path analysis is the development of multiple regression which the independent variables affect the dependent variable not only directly but also indirectly affect. Based on the results of the discussion of the factors that affect the GPA is concluded that the allowance has indirect effect of   -0,211, age has  direct effect of age at 0,1901, the UN has direct effect of 0,258, many organizations have a direct effect of -0,3582 and has indirect effect of -0,132, the  internet long direct effect of -0,2376 and has indirect effect of -0,038, long learning has a direct effect of 0,2344. Keywords: Education, GPA, Path analysis, Direct effect, Indirect effect

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