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All Journal PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL Jurnal Gaussian Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Alan Prahutama
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Other

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MODELLING JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEKS USING SPLINE TRUNCATED Alan Prahutama; Suparti Suparti; Sugito Sugito; Tiani Wahyu Utami
PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL & INTERNASIONAL 2018: PROCEEDING 1ST INSELIDEA INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ASIA (INseIDEA)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (564.334 KB)

Abstract

Regression analysis can be done by parametric and nonparametric approach. The nonparametric approach does not assume an assumption compared to parametric. One nonparametric approach is the spline truncated. Spline is a polynomial piece that provides high flexibility. Spline modeling requires spline and knots. To determine the knots using General Cross Validation (GCV). In this study modeled the value of Jakarta Composite  Index (JCI). JCI provides benefits to know the overall stock price in the stock exchange Indonesia. In this study the best spline model is linear with three knots with R square is 94.34%. Keywords: Jakarta Composite’s Index, Spline truncated, GCV.
PEMODELAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESIVE EXOGENOUS (VARX) PADA NILAI INFLASI TERHADAP PDRB DI JAWA TENGAH Alan Prahutama; Agus Rusgiyono; Tiani Wahyu Utami
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 7, No 2 (2019): Jurnal Statistika
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Muham

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (636.067 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.7.2.2019.%p

Abstract

Analisis time series dapat dilakukan secara univariat maupun multivariat. Pemodelan time series univariat menggunakan model ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), sedangkan pemodelan multivariat dapat menggunakan VAR (Vector Autoregressive). Baik model ARIMA ataupun VAR memiliki prosedur yang mirip antaralain stasioneritas data, penentuan orde dari model, checking diagnostic. Model VAR merupakan pengembangan dari model AR (Autoregressive). apabila model univariat time series dipengaruhi oleh variabel eksogen dapat dimodelkan menggunakan ARIMAX, sedangkan time series multivariate dapat dimodelkan menggunakan VARX.Pada penelitian ini dimodelkan nilai inflasi di kota Semarang, kota Surakarta dan kota Purwokerto berdasarkan nilai PDRB Jawa Tengah. Berdasarkan hasil analisis yang didapat, nilai inflasi setiap wilayah dipengaruhi lag ke-(t-1) dengan wilayahnya sendiri ataupun dengan wilayah yang lain. Nilai PDRB tdak signifikan hanya di wilayah Surakarta, tetapi di wilayah lainnya signifikan. Nilai AIC model mencapai 976.876.Kata kunci : VARX, inflasi, PDRB
SPATIAL PATTERN PENYEBARAN MALARIA DI JAWA TENGAH Alan Prahutama; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 4, No 2 (2016): Jurnal Statistika
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Muham

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (348.544 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.4.2.2016.%p

Abstract

Malaria merupakan penyakit endemik yang ditularkan oleh nyamuk Anopheles.Penyebaran penyakit malaria sering terjadi pada daerah tropis, termasuk Indonesia. Beberapa faktor penyebab penyebaran penyakit malaria yang dpat dianalisissalah satunya faktor lingkungan. Faktor lingkungan dari setiap wilayah dapat ditinjau dari kepadatan penduduk, banyaknya tenaga kesehatan, banyaknya puskesmas/rumah sakit, prosentasi kemiskinan serta angka gizi buruk.Untuk enganalisis penyebaran penyakit malaria di kabupaten/kota di Jawa Tengah dapat menggunakan metode spasial, karena melibatkan wilayah (spasial). Hal ini dikarenakan fenomena wilayah yang tidak bisa dilepaskan yaitu lokasi yang berdekatan akan memberi pengaruh yang lebih banyak dibandingkan dengan lokasi yang berjauhan. Salah satu metode statistika spasial yang digunakan untuk mengetahui pola penyebaran adalah Indeks Morans.Kata Kunci:Morans I, Spatial Pattern, Penyebaran Malaria
ESTIMASI KANDUNGAN DO (DISSOLVED OXYGEN) DI KALI SURABAYA DENGAN METODE KRIGING Alan Prahutama
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 1, No 2 (2013): Jurnal Statistika
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Muham

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (301.053 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.1.2.2013.%p

Abstract

Kota Surabaya merupakan salah satu kota terbesar dengan pemukiman penduduk yang cukup padat. Kali Surabaya merupakan salah satu sungai terbesar di Surabaya. Peningkatan sektor industri, pedatnya pemukiman penduduk menyebabkan pencemaran air di Kali Surabaya. Pengukuran tingkat kebersihan air menggunakan DO (Dissolved Oxygen). DO  merupakan oksigen terlarut yang digunakan untuk mengukur kualitas kebersihan air. Semakin besar nilai kandungan DO menunjukan bahwa kualitas air tersebut semakin bagus. Kriging merupakan salah satu metode geostatistika untuk  mengestimasi titik yang tidak tersempel dengan menggunakan unsur spasial pada lokasi yang tersempel. Salah satu estimasi titik didalam kriging menggunakan bobot. Penentuan bobot adalah dengan menggunakan model semivariogram.  Model yangdigunakan yaitu model Gaussian. Hasil yang diperoleh bahwa kandungan DO Kali Surabaya di titik sesudah outlet PT. Suparma menunjukan kandungan DO sebesar 4.1171.
PEMODELAN REGRESI ROBUST M-ESTIMATOR DALAM MENANGANI PENCILAN (STUDI KASUS PEMODELAN JUMLAH KEMATIAN IBU NIFAS DI JAWA TENGAH Alan Prahutama; Agus Rusgiyono; Dwi Ispriyanti; Tiani Wahyu Utami
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 9, No 1 (2021): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.9.1.2021.35-39

Abstract

Regression analysis is statistical method that used to model between predictor variables and response variables. In the regression model, the residual assumed normal distribution, non-autocorrelation, and homoscedasticity. When the assumptions doesn’t fulfilled, then the measurement of goodness not well enough. One of the causes may be outlier of data. Handling the outlier can be used robust regression, which one of method is robust M-estimator.   In this article, we purposed modelling the number of maternal postpartum in Central Java province with predictor variables are the percentage of pregnant who consumed Fe tablet (X1), the percentage of household whom applied clean and health lifestyle(X2), and the percentage of pregnant who First visited to midwife of doctor (K1) (X3).  In the multiple regression only X3 was significantly with R-square was 14.25209%, and Mean Square Error (MSE) was 20.4177. Moreover, in outlier detection, there were two outlier in the data, then modelled with Robust M-estimator. The measurement of goodness used R-square of regression robust M-estimator was 21.74% with MSE was 15.02766. Robust M-estimator regression resulted better model than multiple regression to model the number of maternal postpartum in Central Java Province.
MODEL ANTREAN KONTINU (STUDI KASUS DI GERBANG TOL BANYUMANIK) Sugito Sugito; Alan Prahutama; Rukun Santoso; Jenesia Kusuma Wardhani
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 5, No 2 (2017): Jurnal Statistika
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Muham

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (294.017 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.5.2.2017.%p

Abstract

Mengantri merupakan salah satu fenomena yang sering terjadi dalam kehidupan seharihari. Mengantri juga terjadi di ruas jalan tol terutama pada waktu sibuk. Sistempengumpulan tol elektronik atau Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) merupakan sistemterbaru dari gerbang tol Banyumanik yang mulai beroperasi pada tahun 2014. SebelumETC, pengguna gerbang tol Banyumanik mendapat layanan reguler, yaitu membayarbiaya tol secara tunai. Keuntungan ETC lebih banyak daripada penggunaan gardureguler, namun pengguna ETC masih sedikit dibanding dengan pengguna gardu reguler.Untuk mengetahui efektifitas pelayanan gardu digunakan analisis sistem antrean. Datayang digunakan adalah data waktu kedatangan dan waktu pelayanan kendaraan.Berdasarkan hasil analisis model antrean gardu reguler arah Ungaran-Semarang, modelantrean gardu tol otomatis arah Ungaran-Semarang, model antrean untuk arahSemarang-Ungaran gardu regular, dan model antrean pada gardu otomatis adalah(G/G/3):(GD/∞/∞).  Kata Kunci: Teori antrean, Simulasi antrean, Gardu tol reguler, Gardu tol otomatis.
IDENTIFIKASI MODEL ANTREAN NON-POISSON (Studi Kasus : Bus Nonpatas Antarkota Antarprovinsi (AKAP) dan Antarkota Dalam Provinsi (AKDP) Lajur Barat Terminal Bus Tirtonadi Surakarta) Aselina Pratidina Wrediningsih; Sugito Sugito; Alan Prahutama; Arief Rachman Hakim
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 6, No 2 (2018): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (526.179 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.6.2.2018.%p

Abstract

Transportation is an important factor to improve the economic level of an area. If the transportation does great, the economy will grow up. In case of that, Tirtonadi Bus Station always try to provide optimum services to avoid long queue. Queue system on the west lanes nonpatas bus service of Tirtonadi Bus Station (Solo-Yogyakarta, SoloSemarang, Solo-Purwokerto, Solo-Jakarta, and Jalur Pedesaan) will be analyzed using queueing theory. The main goal of this project is to identify the distribution of the model of Non-Poisson and calculate the size of system performance. Primary dataanalysis is made up of equilibrium sample test (steady state) and tested the distribution of the arrivals number and the bus service’s time. Based on the analysis of queueing process, there are non-Poisson queueing models estimated with Triangular, Beta, Weibull, and the models are (G/M/1) : (GD/∞/∞), (G/LOGN/1) : (GD/∞/∞), (G/M/1) : (GD/∞/∞), (G/BETA/1) : (GD/∞/∞), and (G/M/1) : (GD/∞/∞). The size of systemperformance show that line A (Solo-Yogyakarta) have a higher level of service rush than other service lines.  Keywords : Queue, Queueing System, Queueing Model, non-Poisson, Tirtonadi Bus Station, Arena.
PENERAPAN METODE FUZZY WEIGHTED PRODUCT (WP) DENGAN PEMBOBOTAN ENTROPY Dwi Ispriyanti; Azizah Mulia Mawarni; Alan Prahutama; Tarno Tarno
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 8, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (316.425 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.8.1.2020.%p

Abstract

The government, through the Directorate General of Higher Education, Ministry of National Education seeks to allocate funds to provide scholarships to students who are economically unable to finance their education, and provide scholarships to students who have achievements. The provision of learning assistance in the form of scholarships was given to students in various universities including Diponegoro University. Scholarships awarded include Academic Achievement Achievement scholarships (PPAs) awarded to outstanding students and scholarships Student Learning Assistance (BBM) given to underprivileged students. In recruiting prospective PPA scholarship recipients, the selection committee applies several assessment criteria. The required assessment criteria are the GPA value, the parent's income, the championship achievement, the semester, the number of dependents, and the electric power. The PPA scholarship selection system has not been effective even though it has been with the help of a computer. So there is a need for decision-making methods in assisting selection. The method applied in selecting scholarship recipients is WP, with Entropy weighting method. Previously, the criteria value was changed to fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy Weighted Product (WP) method successfully selected PPA scholarship recipients with optimal results to help screening committee.
ANALISIS MODEL ANTREAN NON POISSON DAN UKURAN KINERJA SISTEM PELAYANAN MENGGUNAKAN GUI R Luthfi Nashukha Dewi; Sugito Sugito; Alan Prahutama; Mustafid Mustafid; Dwi Ispriyanti Dwi Ispriyanti
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 9, No 1 (2021): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.9.1.2021.28-34

Abstract

The queue process is a process related to the arrival of a customer at a service facility, then waits in line if not yet received service and leaves the service facility after receiving service. The queue occurs because many people need services at the same time and the number of service facilities available is limited. In this case, the arrival pattern follows the Poisson distribution assuming the arrival is random. Departement of Population and Civil Registration in Semarang City (Dispendukcapil) is one of the public service places that often arise in line. Therefore, this system needs to be applied with queue theory. The queue theory was developed to provide a model in determining system performance. The queue model that has been obtained at every counter in  Dispendukcapil is customer service (UNIF/LOGN/1):(GD/∞/∞), legalized (UNIF/LOGN/2):(GD/∞/∞), data changes (UNIF/BETA/1):(GD/∞/∞), birth (UNIF/BETA/2):(GD/∞/∞), death (UNIF/BETA/2):(GD/∞/∞), second quote (UNIF/LOGN/1):(GD/∞/∞), biometric (UNIF/LOGN/2):(GD/∞/∞), resident registration (UNIF/LOGN/2):(GD/∞/∞), electronic ID Card recording (UNIF/GAMM/1):(GD/∞/∞). In measuring the performance of the system obtained through the GUI R. Based on the results obtained, the Dispendukcapil service system is optimal because of the low waiting time.
ANALISIS KLASIFIKASI KEMISKINAN DI KOTA SEMARANG MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA QUEST Dwi Ispriyanti; Alan Prahutama; Mustafid Mustafid
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 7, No 1 (2019): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (371.335 KB) | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.7.1.2019.%p

Abstract

Kemiskinan menjadi suatu permasalahan bagi negara-negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia.  Kemiskinan merupakan keadaan kondisi perekonomian suatu orang atau sekelompok orang yang tidak bisa memenuhi kebutuhan dasar seperti pendidikan, kesehatan, pangan, perumahan dan lainnya. Analisis klasifikasi kemiskinan merupaka bagian dari analisis kemiskinan yang yang mengkategorikan rumah tangga atau kelompok kedalam kategori miskin dan tidak miskin. Pengkategorian tersebut didasarkan pada pengeluaran perkapita yang dibandingkan dengan nilai garis kemiskinan. Metode klasifikasi didalam statistika salah satunya pohon klasifikasi, yang meliputi  antara lain Algoritma CART, QUEST, ID3, C45 dan lainnya. Algoritma QUEST merupakan pohon klasifikasi biner dengan prosedur pemilihan variabel penyekat/pemisah, penentuan titik sekat/pemisah serta proses pemberhentian. Pada penelitian ini hasil klasifikasi menggunakan algoritma QUEST dengan semua variabel prediktor diasumsikan skala rasio maka hasil klasifikasi yang didapat mempunyai akurasi 94.9%. Variabel prediktor yang mempengaruhi antara lain penerimaan beras miskin, jenis bahan bakar utama untuk emasak, jenin dinding rumah tinggal yang digunakan dan sumber utama air minum. Sedangkan hasil klasifikasi menggunakan algoritma QUEST dengan variabel prediktornya diasumsikan skala nominal juga menghasilkan akurasi 94.9%. Variabel prediktor yang mempengaruhi antara lain penerimaan beras miskin, jenis bahan bakar utama yang digunakan untuk memasak, bahan utaam dinding rumah serta jumlah angota rumah tangga.
Co-Authors - Sugito Abdul Hoyyi Agus Rusgiyono Arief Rachman Hakim Aselina Pratidina Wrediningsih Azizah Mulia Mawarni Berta Elvionita Fitriani Budi Warsito Chainur Arrasyid Hasibuan Diah Safitri Dian Andhika Prameswara Dwi Ispriyanti Dwi Ispriyanti Dwi Ispriyanti Erna Fransisca Angela Sihotang Fathimatuzzahra Syahrozad Nuroqi Fizry Listiyani Maulida Hasbi Yasin Irawati Tamara Jenesia Kusuma Wardhani Laili Isna Nur Khiqmah Luthfi Nashukha Dewi Mariska Srihardianti Mega Susilowati Moch Abdul Mukid Moch. Abdul Mukid Muhammad Rosyid Abdurrahman Mustafid Mustafid Nia Puspita Sari Nunung Hanurowati Nurmalita Sari Omy Wahyudi Rengganis Purwakinanti Rezzy Eko Caraka Rita Rahmawati Rizky Adhi Nugroho Rizky Amanda Rizky Dwi Rahmawati Ronny Gusnadi Rukun Santoso Siti Azizah Sudarno Sudarno Sugito - Sugito Sugito Suparti - Suparti Suparti Tarno Tarno Tatik Widiharih Tiani Wahyu Utami Viliyan Indaka Ardhi Yogi Setiyo Pamuji