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All Journal The Journal of Experimental Life Sciences (JELS) Panrita Abdi - Jurnal Pengabdian pada Masyarakat Sainmatika: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Applied Technology and Computing Science Journal Community Development Journal The Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications
Andayani, Puji
Universitas Internasional Semen Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Education Engineering Immunology & microbiology Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Neuroscience Physics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : The Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications

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Vector-Reservoir Transmission in A Japanese Encephalitis Model Lisa R. Sari; Puji Andayani; Sekarsari U. Wijaya
Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications (IJMA)
Publisher : Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.ijma.2023.001.01.3

Abstract

In this paper, a model for characterizing the dynamics of vector-borne diseases is put out, emphasizing Japanese encephalitis. The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for the host population and the susceptible-infectious (SI) model for the vector and reservoir populations are used to examine the role of host-vector-reservoir dynamics and their interplay. The standard incidence rate represents the probability of an actual disease contact. The model has two equilibrium points: an endemic equilibrium point that only exists under specific circumstances and a disease-free equilibrium point that always exists. The stability analysis of the model’s equilibrium point has been established. The basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis on models supported by numerical simulations is provided to demonstrate the critical parameter that affects the spread of disease.Our findings indicate that vector-reservoir transmission is the primary cause of endemic. Controlling vector-reservoir transmission lowers the likelihood of human infection and creates disease-free settings.
Implementation of Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Method to Forecast The Spread of Covid-19 Adhitama Ihza Pangestu; Puji Andayani
Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications (IJMA)
Publisher : Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.ijma.2023.001.02.2

Abstract

This research examines the Holt winters exponential smoothing method to solve forecasting problems using case studies of the spread of Covid-19. The data source uses the transmission of Covid-19 in Indonesia. MAPE is used to measure errors in data forecasting. The results are structured to serve as a recommendation for other researchers in choosing a method for predicting the spread of the disease. Based on the results, forecasting with the Holt-Winters model in positive cases produces a MAPE value of 9.21% using the Multiplicative model and the best parameter values of alpha, beta and gamma (0.4, 0.05, 0.25). Whereas in the case of human recovery, the MAPE value was 11.86% using the Multiplicative model and the best values for the parameters alpha, beta and gamma (0.4, 0.03, 0.1). And in the case of death it produces a MAPE of 17.97% using the Multiplicative model and the parameter values alpha, beta and gamma (0.4, 0.01, 0.1). So, it can be concluded that the Holt-Winters method on human positive case data shows a good outcome performance while recovered and deceased cases produce a well-being analysis performance.
Co-Authors Adhitama Ihza Pangestu Afninda Aryuni Widyanti Bagastya Asyhari Febri Nur Anggraeni Habib Mudhofir Hariri Lailatul Hidayah Lisa R. Sari Lisa Risfana Sari Mohammad Arif Rasyidi Ngatini Novi Putriyani Puspita Nur Efita Nurul Fadhillah Achmad Putu Setia Rasyidi, Mohammad Arif Rizal Dian Azmi Sekarsari U. Wijaya