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Comparison of Holt and Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing Methods in The Forecast of Moving Price for Mutual Funds Muchayan, Achmad
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2019)
Publisher : Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (613.08 KB) | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci1167

Abstract

Mutual funds are one of the promising investment media where the risk is directly proportional to the size of investment growth. With proper forecasting of NAV price movements will greatly help investors to make purchases and sales transactions, therefore the authors offer the use of two different forecasting methods namely Brown's method and Holt method in double exponential smoothing to get predictions of NAV price movements. The effectiveness of the use of the method will be measured from the value of Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE). From the calculation results obtained by the data that the Holt method produces forecasting for 1809,657 with the best α value of 0.6 and MAPE of 0.644373568, while for the Holt method obtained forecasting value of 1810,924 with the α value and the best β value of 0.9 and 0.1 and the smaller MAPE value of 0.61604262 . Looking at the amount of MAPE generated, the Holt method has a smaller forecasting error rate when compared to Brown’s method.
Implementasi Pemrograman API dalam Membangun Aplikasi Rekening Bersama pada Komunitas Facebook dengan Virtual Account Armadhana, Dandy Raka; Setiawan, Eman; Muchayan, Achmad
Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Bisnis Vol. 11 No. 2 (2020): Vol. 11 No. 2 (2020)
Publisher : STMIK Dharmapala Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47927/jikb.v11i2.2

Abstract

Aktivitas jual beli di dalam komunitas Facebook tidak semua dapat dipercaya, ada pula oknum yang melakukan penipuan yang dapat merugikan pihak yang terlibat transaksi. Rekber atau biasa disebut rekening bersama merupakan metode pembayaran online yang dianggap paling aman daripada melakukan transaksi secara mentransfer uang secara langsung. Oleh karena itu penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun aplikasi Rekberkuy pada komunitas facebook menggunakan pemrograman API. Pengambilan data pada penelitian ini didapatkan melalui wawancara dan observasi pada anggota grup XYZ di Facebook. Pada tahap pengembangan perangkat lunak, digunakan pendekatan prototyping dengan beberapa tahapan dan dibuat dalam jangka waktu 5 bulan. Hasil dalam penelitian ini yaitu implementasi payment gateway midtrans pada aplikasi rekberkuy berjalan dengan baik. Dengan melakukan testing pada transaksi beberapa customer menggunakan rekberkuy membuktikan bahwa system payment gateway midtrans berintegrasi dengan baik oleh rekberkuy dan mendapatkan komentar positif dari pembeli maupun penjual yang melakukan transaksi pada grup XYZ di Facebook.
Comparison of Holt and Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing Methods in The Forecast of Moving Price for Mutual Funds Achmad Muchayan
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2019)
Publisher : Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (613.08 KB) | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci1167

Abstract

Mutual funds are one of the promising investment media where the risk is directly proportional to the size of investment growth. With proper forecasting of NAV price movements will greatly help investors to make purchases and sales transactions, therefore the authors offer the use of two different forecasting methods namely Brown's method and Holt method in double exponential smoothing to get predictions of NAV price movements. The effectiveness of the use of the method will be measured from the value of Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE). From the calculation results obtained by the data that the Holt method produces forecasting for 1809,657 with the best α value of 0.6 and MAPE of 0.644373568, while for the Holt method obtained forecasting value of 1810,924 with the α value and the best β value of 0.9 and 0.1 and the smaller MAPE value of 0.61604262 . Looking at the amount of MAPE generated, the Holt method has a smaller forecasting error rate when compared to Brown’s method.
Sistem Rekomendasi Produk Pena Eksklusif Menggunakan Metode Content-Based Filtering dan TF-IDF Mariani Widia Putri; Achmad Muchayan; Made Kamisutara
JOINTECS (Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science) Vol 5, No 3 (2020)
Publisher : Universitas Widyagama Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31328/jointecs.v5i3.1563

Abstract

Sistem rekomendasi saat ini sedang menjadi tren. Kebiasaan masyarakat yang saat ini lebih mengandalkan transaksi secara online dengan berbagai alasan pribadi. Sistem rekomendasi menawarkan cara yang lebih mudah dan cepat sehingga pengguna tidak perlu meluangkan waktu terlalu banyak untuk menemukan barang yang diinginkan. Persaingan antar pelaku bisnis pun berubah sehingga harus mengubah pendekatan agar bisa menjangkau calon pelanggan. Oleh karena itu dibutuhkan sebuah sistem yang dapat menunjang hal tersebut. Maka dalam penelitian ini, penulis membangun sistem rekomendasi produk menggunakan metode Content-Based Filtering dan Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) dari model Information Retrieval (IR). Untuk memperoleh hasil yang efisien dan sesuai dengan kebutuhan solusi dalam meningkatkan Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Sistem rekomendasi dibangun dan diterapkan sebagai solusi agar dapat meningkatkan brand awareness pelanggan dan meminimalisir terjadinya gagal transaksi di karenakan kurang nya informasi yang dapat disampaikan secara langsung atau offline. Data yang digunakan terdiri dari 258 kode produk produk yang yang masing-masing memiliki delapan kategori dan 33 kata kunci pembentuk sesuai dengan product knowledge perusahaan. Hasil perhitungan TF-IDF menunjukkan nilai bobot 13,854 saat menampilkan rekomendasi produk terbaik pertama, dan memiliki keakuratan sebesar 96,5% dalam memberikan rekomendasi pena.
Implementasi Multi Factor Evaluation Process (MFEP) Pemilihan Kompetensi Keahlian Calon Siswa SMK Ketintang Surabaya Lukman Junaedi Lukman; Ahmad Shidiq Cahyono; Achmad Muchayan
Journal of Advanced in Information and Industrial Technology Vol. 2 No. 1 (2020): May
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Telkom Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (676.38 KB) | DOI: 10.52435/jaiit.v2i1.12

Abstract

Dalam dunia pendidikan menengah atas kejuruan (SMK), banyak sekali kompetensi keahlian yang tersedia di masing-masing Sekolah. SMK Ketintang Surabaya merupakan institusi bidang pendidikan yang melayani 5 (lima) kompetensi keahlian yaitu Akuntansi dan Keuangan Lembaga (AKL), Otomatisasi dan Tata Kelola Perkantoran (OTKP), Bisnis Daring dan Pemasaran (BDP), Teknik Komputer dan Jaringan (TKJ), dan Multimedia (MM). Dalam menentukan peminatan di kompetensi keahlian, masih banyak siswa merasa salah dalam memilih kompetensi keahlian sehingga timbul fenomena tinggal kelas dan pindah sekolah atau kompetensi keahlian yang meningkat. Metode Multi Factor Evaluation Process (MFEP) merupakan salah satu metode Sistem Pendukung Keputusan (SPK) dengan menimbang berbagai kriteria yang mempengaruhi alternatif. Calon siswa dapat memilih kompetensi keahlian sesuai dengan minatnya dengan bantuan dari progam SPK berbasis web. Hasil dari artikel ini menjelaskan tentang progam SPK yangt menampilkan diagram peminatan yang dipilih calon siswa sehingga calon siswa tidak merasa salah dalam pemilihan kompetensi keahlian. Calon siswa dapat memilih kompetensi keahlian yang sesuai minatnya dan tidak menjadi siswa yang salah memilih kompetensi keahlian dengan presentase 54,4%.
Implementasi Digital Marketing Melalui Instagram Bagi Kelompok Pengrajin Batik BELVA di Bangkalan Madura Achmad Muchayan; I Putu Artaya; Made Kamisutara
Madaniya Vol. 3 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Bahasa dan Publikasi Ilmiah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53696/27214834.161

Abstract

Kegiatan pelatihan dan pendampingan ini dilakukan khususnya ingin membantu masalah yang dihadapi kelompok pelaku usaha batik di desa Burneh, Tunjung, Bangkalan Madura. Sasaran utama adalah melatih, dan pendampingan mengenai konten digital marketing kepada kelompok usaha tersebut. Dalam upaya menjalankan usaha secara online menggunakan aplikasi instagram. Dalam kegiatan pelatihan dan pendampingan ini, baru 27 pelaku usaha yang terlayani oleh tim PKM, dimana hasil indikator ketercapaian kegiatan adalah 83,5% yang artinya kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini mampu memberikan sesuatu yang dibutuhkan oleh pemilik usaha kelompok batik Belva dengan baik. Dalam upaya melakukan pendampingan jangka panjang maka tim PKM melakukan monitoring kepada kelompok pelaku usaha tersebut agar mereka lebih mampu mandiri dalam mengembangkan usahanya. Dipilihnya aplikasi instagram karena model digital marketing yang satu ini sedang banyak digemari oleh pelaku usaha dalam upaya meningkatkan pengenalan produk, kegiatan promosi dan peningkatan penjualan mereka secara online. Mengingat saat ini dengan kemajuan teknologi dan informasi, tentu mengembangkan usaha jauh relatif mudah bagi pelaku usaha yang ditandai dengan penguasaan metode penjualan online secara lebih baik. Ini merupakan dampak globalisasi dan penerapan revolusi industri 4.0 dan menuntut kesiapan pelaku usaha untuk mengadopsi metode penjualan yang lebih baik berbasis teknologi.
PERBANDINGAN MEAN AVERAGE PERCENTAGE ERROR PADA PERAMALAN PERGERAKAN HARGA REKSA DANA MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT DAN BROWN’S DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Achmad Muchayan
e-NARODROID Vol 6 No 1 (2020): e-NARODROID
Publisher : Universitas Narotama

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31090/narodroid.v6i1.1068

Abstract

The Decision Support System For The Acceptance of Pencak Silat Athletes in Pra-PON and PUSLATDA Team Selection Using Technique For Other Preference By Similarity To Ideal Solution Method Mochammad Rizaldy; Achmad Muchayan; Made Kamisutara
IJEEIT : International Journal of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology Vol 3 No 2 (2020): September 2020
Publisher : NAROTAMA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29138/ijeeit.v3i2.1297

Abstract

Pencak Silat is one of the traditional martial arts that originated from Indonesia. The parent of Pencak Silat organization in Indonesia is INDONESIAN PENCAK SILAT ASSOCIATION (IPSI). Pencak Silat is one of the most reliable sports branches at the International-scale Olympics. Proven at the ASEAN GAMES 2018 Olympics and then the Pencak Silat Sports Branch is one of the sports branch of the most gold medal with a total of 14 medals. With the increasingly tight competition of Pencak Silat Sports, the trainer desperately needs athletes who fit certain criteria in order to be reliable in a tournament. In this study aims to assist the trainer in selecting athletes that correspond to the criteria. Therefore, a decision support system is required to assist the trainer in selecting qualified athletes. In this research, using the Technique for Other Preference by Similarity To Ideal Solution method is used to advise athletes who are eligible to be contested according to the calculation result. Result system of decision support system with Topsis method of this research has been tested by Pencak Silat Trainer and produce the results of the selection that is expected by the trainer. Keywords: Pencak Silat, Decision Support Systems, Technique For Other Preference by Similarity To Ideal Solution, Web
Early Detection of Diseases And Abnormalities In The Respiratory System Using Certainty Factor Method Mohammad Arman Prambudi; Achmad Muchayan
IJEEIT : International Journal of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology Vol 4 No 1 (2021): March 2021
Publisher : NAROTAMA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29138/ijeeit.v4i1.1298

Abstract

Health is a very important factor in the human body. If the health of ourselves is interrupted, it is also interrupted by someone to do the activity. There are several diseases that have a lot of sufferers. One of them is the disease of the respiratory system. Respiratory system is defined generally as a matter that disrupts the process of breathing in our body. Diseases of the respiratory system is one of the main problems of public health in Indonesia, because the disease is a human breathing. The expert system is a library of specialists or an expert in diseases of the respiratory system and the conditions used to take the conclusion of the symptoms. In the calculation process used the certanity factor method to find a percentage level of confidence. The Parameter used in the diagnosis is the symptom chosen by the sufferer. The conclusion of this application results in the diagnosis of the disease suffered and the percentage result of confidence through the selected symptoms. Keywords: Respiratory disease, expert system, Certainty Factor
Abraham Maslow's Hierarchical Need Fulfillment and Herzberg's Two-Factor Theory for Creating Worker Loyalty I Putu Artaya; Made Kamisutara; Achmad Muchayan; IGA Sri Deviyanti
THE SPIRIT OF SOCIETY JOURNAL : International Journal of Society Development and Engagement Vol 4 No 2 (2021): March 2021
Publisher : LPPM of NAROTAMA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29138/scj.v4i2.1361

Abstract

This research was conducted in an attempt to identify and analyze the role and influence of two universally applicable theories in the life of an employee when working in a company. The research subjects are employees who work at the bank. The data collection model is carried out primarily using a questionnaire to explore their perceptions in creating and or maintaining a sense of loyalty in their workplace. To prove this, the researchers chose a bank that has been around for a long time, where there are 25 employees. We want to know whether Maslow and Herzberg's theory of motivation remains universally applicable in their work environment. This research is an associative study using the primary data base, this data from interviews and filling out questionnaires from the bank employees. Measurement of data using ordinal data with a Likert scale approach. From the results of filling out the questionnaire, the percentage results obtained that 71.4% of them tend to agree on the existence of their existence and fulfill their needs hierarchically. Through associative analysis, it can be obtained that the physiological results are 49.1% well fulfilled, sense of security is 47.4% fulfilled, social 43.8% is fulfilled, self-esteem 72.5% is fulfilled, and self actualization is 49.1% also fulfilled in the bank, this condition is enough to make their employees loyal in contributing energy, time and thoughts. Overall 93.7% of Maslow's hierarchical needs and Herzberg's maintenance are able to create a sense of employee loyalty to the workplace. The fulfillment of 72.5% hierarchical needs is dominated by the fulfillment of self-esteem, then in terms of maintenance theory, Herzberg is dominated by self-esteem and self-actualization