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All Journal MANAJEMEN HUTAN TROPIKA Journal of Tropical Forest Management FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Forum Geografi BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Saintifik : Jurnal Matematika, Sains, dan Pembelajarannya STI Policy and Management Journal Xplore: Journal of Statistics
Muhammad Nur Aidi
Department Of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation Other

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Analysis of Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) GRDP of the Construction Sector in Java Island Haryanto, Sugi; Aidi, Muhammad Nur; Djuraidah, Anik
Forum Geografi Vol 33, No 1 (2019): July 2019
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/forgeo.v33i1.7332

Abstract

The construction sector is one of the sectors that have strategic value in the national economy. Economic activity in an area is measured using the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The development of economic activities in the construction sector can be seen from the GRDP of the construction sector. The Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model is a development of the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model taking into account the diversity of locations and times. This study used secondary data, namely the data of GRDP the construction sector as a response variable and four explanatory variables, namely the number of population, local revenue, area, and the number of construction establishments. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that influence each regency/municipality and each year observing the GRDP of the construction sector in Java with the GTWR model. GTWR model is more effective to describe the value of GRDP the construction sector of regencies/municipalities in Java Island in 2010-2016. This is indicated by the decrease in values of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
KAJIAN KOMPETISI TUMBUHAN EKSOTIK YANG BERSIFAT INVASIF TERHADAP POHON HUTAN PEGUNUNGAN ASLI TAMAN NASIONAL GUNUNG GEDE PANGRAN Budi Utomo; Cecep Kusmana; Sukisman Tjitrosemito; Muhammad Nur Aidi
Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika Vol. 13 No. 1 (2007)
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB University)

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Abstract

Up to now, montane rain forest of Gunung Gede-Pangrango National Park, faces problem in the form of invasion of exotic plant species into the area.  Location of the area that borders with various land uses, such as Botanical Garden and agricultural land, make it very susceptible toward invasion of plant species from outside the area.  The collapse of large trees which normally constitute a mechanism of natural regeneration, was in fact stimulating the development of exotic species, particularly those which were invasive, inside the area. The objective of this research was to test the competitive ability of endemic species, which in this case was represented by Cleystocalyx operculata and Mischocarpus pentapetalus, toward exotic plant species, represented by Austroeupatoriun inulaefolium and Passiflora ligularis, during 5 months of study.  Growth rate of exotic plant species, as well as the dry weight biomass, were larger than those of endemic species.  Indirect estimation of competitive ability showed that competitive ability (β) of endemic species were 4-5 times less, namely 0.0274 (for C. operculata) and 0.0251 (for M. pentapetalus); as compared with those of exotic species, namely 0.125 (for P. ligularis) and 0.1104 (for A. inulaefolium).  Direct test also proved that competitive ability (β) of endemic species was lower than that of exotic species, as shown by relative crowding value < 1.  Estimation of future competitive ability, using diagram of input/ output ratio, showed also the disability of endemic species to compete with exotic species, where position of input/output ratio points were parallel with equilibrium line y=x. Considering those facts, there is urgent need for controlling these invasive exotic species inside the National Park area to maintain the sustainability of biodiversity and regeneration of endemic species in montane rain forest of Gunung Gede–Pangrango National Park.
Realisasi titik-titik secara spasial diwujudkan dengan pola titik-titik tersebut dalam ruang.  Pola titik dalam ruang pada prinsipnya ada tiga macam, yakni pola titik spasial secara acak, pola titik spasial secara regular serta pola titik spasial secara kelompok. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menentukan fungsi massa peluang yang menggambarkan sebaran titik spasial kelompok, melakukan simulasi perubahan ukuran grid pada metode kuadran terhadap nilai VMR serta perubahan pola titik spasial kelompok. Muhammad Nur Aidi
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 14 No. 1 (2009)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

Realisasi titik-titik secara spasial diwujudkan dengan pola titik-titik tersebut dalam ruang.  Pola titik dalam ruang pada prinsipnya ada tiga macam, yakni pola titik spasial secara acak, pola titik spasial secara regular serta pola titik spasial secara kelompok. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menentukan fungsi massa peluang yang menggambarkan sebaran titik spasial kelompok, melakukan simulasi perubahan ukuran grid pada metode kuadran terhadap nilai VMR serta perubahan pola titik spasial kelompok. Langkah yang ditempuh adalah membangun fungsi massa peluang yang merupakan pembangkit sebaran spasial kelompok, serta melakukan simulasi pada analisis kuadran dengan membagi wilayah menjadi beberapa grid. Hasil yang ditunjukkan Sebaran spasial kelompok mempunyai fungsi massa peluang binomial negative serta nilai VMR > 1. Apabila Banyaknya Grid bersifat terbatas maka peurubahan banyaknya grid tidak merubah kesimpulan bahwa VMR > 1 yang artinya sebaran fungsi massa peluang binomial negative akan mempunyai sebaran titik spasial bersifat kelompok. Nilai VMR merupakan fungsi eksponensial terhadap banyaknya grid, yakni VMR= 4,976371 exp(-0,003138* banyaknya grid.
PENGGUNAAN RANTAI MARKOV UNTUK ANALISIS SPASIAL SERTA MODIFIKASINYA DARI SISTEM TERTUTUP KE SISTEM TERBUKA Muhammad Nur Aidi
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 13 No. 1 (2008)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

Model rantai Markov merupakan suatu konsep yang menarik untuk menggambarkan dan menganalisa kealamian suatu perubahan diakibatkkan oleh pergerakan state-state di atas, terkadang model Markov juga dipergunakan untuk meramalkan perubahan pada masa depan   Kata Kunci : Model Markov, Ekuilibrium, Matriks Fundamental
PERBAIKAN METODE KRIGING BIASA (ORDINARY KRIGING) MELALUI PEMECAHAN MATRIKS C MENJADI BEBERAPA ANAK MATRIKS NON OVERLAP UNTUK MEWAKILI DRIFT PADA PEUBAH SPASIAL Muhammad Nur Aidi
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 12 No. 1 (2007)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

Persoalan dalam pendugaan spasial dengan menggunakan konsep drift sering kali menemui kendala bila kondisi permukaan yang diduga bersifat anisotropik.  Pada kondisi anisotropik kuranglah tepat apabila hanya menggunakan satu model korelogram (variogram). Dalam tulisan ini dicoba area yang diteliti dibagi menjadi beberapa partisi (4 partisi) sehingga disusun empat model variogram untuk keseluruhan area.  Dari empat partisi tersebut dicari nilai-nilai total pembobot yang layak agar fungsi penduga menjadi tak bias.  Selanjutnya dilakukan perbandingan pendugaan nilai pada titik-titik yang tidak dilakukan pengukuran antara tanpa partisi dengan partisi.  Hasil pendugaan menunjukkan bahwa nilai dugaan sama dengan nilai sebenarnya baik yang tak dipartisi maupun yang dipartisi. Akan tetapi, nilai pendugaan yang dihasilkan dari area yang dipartisi lebih baik dibandingkan tanpa partisi.
CLUSTERING PROVINCE IN INDONESIA BY COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY RELATED VARIABLES Ahmad Nur Rohman; _ Erfiani; Muhammad Nur Aidi
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 20 No. 2 (2015)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

Technological developments in Indonesia growth rapidly. Almost all systems used in daily life have been using the technology. One of its technology is communication technology. It because communication technology is a important tool for send information. All was done in order to communicate easier and faster. It is therefore important to research the condition of the existing communication technology in Indonesia. Communications technology also one of the focus of the government in national development. But not easy to know the state of communication technology in Indonesia because Indonesia has a large region and different geographically. The purpose of this research was to determine the grouping of provinces in Indonesia to increase the communication sector in order to support national development. The method used in this research is cluster hierarchical analysis method and criterion of determining the best method and many cluster optimal use Cubic Clustering Criterion (CCC). The data used is secondary data from the Statisctics Indonesia (BPS) and the Ministry of Communication and Information. The results showed that the number of cluster based on related communication technology variables are 3 cluster which 1st cluster members consist of 21 provinces, 2nd cluster members consist of 7 provinces and 3rd cluster members consist of 3 provinces.Key words : Communications Technology, Cluster Analysis, Hierarchical Method, Cubic Clustering Criterion (CCC)
MODELLING OF FORECASTING MONTHLY INFLATION BY USING VARIMA AND GSTARIMA MODELS Andi Setiawan; Muhammad Nur Aidi; I Made Sumertajaya
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 20 No. 2 (2015)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

The model parameters could be different form the well to the factors of time and location. A general model of GSTAR can be used to establish model the inflation in some locations by using GSTARIMA model if time series data is self-contained autoregressive, differentiation, and moving averages. This study examines whether the effect of such locations on the GSTARIMA model is better than the VARIMA model that regardless of the location influences. The aim of this study is to establish two models of inflation six provincial capitals in Java using VARIMA model and GSTARIMA model with inverse distance weighting. Dummy variables have been used to overcome normality and white noise problems. The best forecasting of monthly inflation in provincial captitals in Java Island is GSTAR(1;1) with inverse distance weighting. It has smallest RMSE value of 0.9199.Key words : GSTARIMA, Inverse Distance, RMSE, VARIMA
Pola Tutupan, Penggunaan, Serta Tantangan Kebijakan Perlindungan Ekosistem Gambut di Kabupaten Bengkalis Sandhi Imam Maulana; Lailan Syaufina; Lilik Budi Prasetyo; Muhammad Nur Aidi
Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Vol. 9 No. 3 (2019): Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan
Publisher : Graduate School Bogor Agricultural University (SPs IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jpsl.9.3.549-565

Abstract

Since the issuance of Government Rule No. 71/2014 jo. No. 57/2016, there has been a wide debate, because those rules may trigger other problems such as food security, social, economic, political, as well as peatland cultivation security. Considering this issue, this study aims to analyze challenges in implementing peat protection policies as textually arranged in Government Rule No. 71/2014 jo. No. 57/2016, in Bengkalis Regency. Overall, in order to discuss both of rule in form and rule in use aspects, this study was conducted using maps overlay technique and content analysis on Government Rule No. 71/2014 jo. No. 57/2016. Based on those approaches, this study shows that there are four challanges in implementing previously mentioned peat ecosystem protectetion policies in Bengkalis Regency, particularly in regard to the measurement of damaged peatland criteria, frictions between protection incentives and pressure on peatland conversion, significant economic contraction, up to the emergence of new open access areas that often be illegally occupied and worsening peatland existing conditions. This finding implies that the government as the regulator in the implementation of peat ecosystem protection policies should open a wider room for policy improvements, in order provide a more balanced consideration to three important aspects of sustainable development, which is not only limited to environmental sustainability, but also covering both of social and economic sustainability.
THE BEST GLOBAL AND LOCAL VARIABLES OF THE MIXED GEOGRAPHICALLY AND TEMPORALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION MODEL Nuramaliyah Nuramaliyah; Asep Saefuddin; Muhammad Nur Aidi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 3 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (714.979 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i3.564

Abstract

Geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) is a method used when there is spatial and temporal diversity in an observation. GTWR model just consider the local influences of spatial-temporal independent variables on dependent variable. In some cases, the model not only about local influences but there are the global influences of spatial-temporal variables too, so that mixed geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR) model more suitable to use. This study aimed to determine the best global and local variables in MGTWR and to determine the model to be used in North Sumatra’s poverty cases in 2010 to 2015. The result show that the Unemployment rate and labor force participation rates are global variables. Whereas the variable literacy rate, school enrollment rates and households buying rice for poor (raskin) are local variables. Furthermore, Based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) showed that MGTWR better than GTWR when it used in North Sumatra’s poverty cases.
KAJIAN SIMULASI OVERDISPERSI PADA REGRESI POISSON DAN BINOMIAL NEGATIF TERBOBOTI GEOGRAFIS UNTUK DATA BALITA GIZI BURUK Puput Cahya Ambarwati; Indahwati Indahwati; Muhammad Nur Aidi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 3 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i3.684

Abstract

One type of geographically weighted regression (GWR) that can be used to explain the relationship between the response variables in the form of count data and explanatory variables is the geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR). In the GWPR, there is an assumption that should be fulfilled called equidispersion, a condition where the variance equals the mean. If that condition is ignored, overdispersion will occur. Overdispersion is a condition when the variance is greater than the mean. The use of GWPR analysis in an overdispersion situation will produce a smaller standard error than it should be (underestimate). This may produce a significant test result leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis. One of the classic approaches commonly used to handle overdispersion in GWR is geographically weighted negative binomial regression (GWNBR). GWNBR is derived from a mixture of Poisson and Gamma distributions which is similar to the negative binomial distribution. Simulation data and real data were used in this study. The results showed that the application of GWPR on overdispersion data could increase the number of rejections of H0 or the number of p-values. The application of GWNBR on the East Java malnutrition toddler data in 2017 showed that the GWNBR model is better than GWPR based on the comparison of AIC, Pseudo R2, and RMSE.
Co-Authors Agus Mohamad Soleh Ahmad Nur Rohman Aji Hamim Wigena Andi Setiawan Anik Djuraidah Anik Djuraidah ASEP SAEFUDDIN Bagus Sartono Budi Susetyo Budi Utomo Choirun Nisa Erfiani Erfiani Fildzah Hanum Syazwina Haryanto, Sugi I Made Sumertajaya Indahwati Indahwati Irene Muflikh Nadhiroh Khairil A. Notodiputro Khalilah Nurfadilah Lailan Syaufina Lilik Budi Prasetyo Mahfuz Hudori Muhammad Nuruddin Prathama Nuramaliyah Nuramaliyah Puput Cahya Ambarwati Rika Rachmawati Sandhi Imam Maulana Sugi Haryanto Sukisman Tjitrosemito Syella Sumampouw Ulfa Afilia Shofa Yesan Tiara