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Konvergensi Pendapatan Regional Kota dan Kabupaten di Indonesia Haryo Kuncoro
EKO-REGIONAL Vol 3, No 1 (2008)
Publisher : Jurusan Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (330.888 KB) | DOI: 10.20884/1.erjpe.2008.3.1.398

Abstract

This paper aims to explore regional dynamics of real per capita income among municipalities in the case of Indonesia over the period of 1988-2003. First, the behavior of dynamics of real per capita income over time is analyzed by visual inspection of their distributions using Theil index and spatial statistics. Next, we employ the traditional approach to predict a pattern of convergence among municipalities. Our tentative conclusions that can be drawn from the two analyses are as follows. First, there is a high level of persistence in the relative position of municipalities, consistent with a low degree of mobility in the income distribution. Second, the richest municipalities tend to polarize gradually, which may be attributed to externalities linked to localization or to the proximity the surrounding areas. Third, private investment and de-concentration fund positively support to the convergence mechanism. Those findings suggest that spatial interdependency seems to have fostered growth of per capita income in those municipalities. Key words: Convergence, Intergovernmental Transfer, Moran’I Statistics, Theil Index
DEFISIT APBN DAN PEMULIHAN EKONOMI PASCA KRISIS Haryo Kuncoro
Media Ekonomi Vol. 20 No. 1 (2012)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (410.316 KB) | DOI: 10.25105/me.v20i1.776

Abstract

Governments play an important role in an economy. The role is presented by both its revenue and expenditure. The net difference of the revenue and expenditure, therefore, determines the type of fiscal policy implementation. This research attempts to analyze the impact of deficit fiscal policy on the private expenditure in the case of Indonesia over the postcrisis 2000-09 periods. The analysis is based on the goods market equilibrium. The approach is designed to analyze whether the government expenditure crowds out the private expenditure. In order to reach the objective of the study, I used the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and compared to the Generalized Almost Ideal Demand System (GAIDS). The estimation result of quarterly data shows that the government expenditure did not crowd out the private expenditure. The crowding out only occurs partially especially on the private investment. However, the government expenditure totally remains stimulating the private expenditures. This, in turn, leads to increase the gross domestic product. Those results indicate that the expansionary fiscal policy effectively affects to the economic growth especially after economic crisis in 1997. Even, the income elasticity was much greated than that in the precrisis periods. Furthermore, to keep the moment of sustainable economic growth in the long term, the government should conduct discipline fiscal policy based on the prudent principles and coordination and consistency between fiscal and monetary controls.Keywords: Deficit, consumption, investment, government expenditure, crowding out