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All Journal JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia
Fahmi Salam Ahmad
Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, Institut Pertanian Bogor
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Defisit Neraca Perdagangan: J-Curve, Perang Dagang dan Model Salter Corden Muhammad Firdaus; Rini Satriani; Syarifah Amaliah; Fahmi Ahmad Salam; Muhammad Fazri
Jurnal Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia Vol 8 No 2 (2019): December
Publisher : Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52813/jei.v8i2.34

Abstract

Exchange rate fluctuations and external shocks such as the trade war are predicted to put pressure on Indonesia’s trade balance. Based on VECM analysis, the exchange rate and Indonesia’s aggregate trade balance followed the J-Curve. Additionally, the trade war had impact on Rupiah depreciation and trade balance. The study also confirms eight export-oriented industries that are resilient to shocks and classified into four behaviors: (i) industries following the J-Curve; (ii) industries following the J-Curve in the long run; (iii) industriy which are not fully confirmed J-Curve, and (iv) Rest sector. The implication of this study emphasize the development of export-oriented and labor-intensive industries (Salter-Corden model). Keywords: J Curve; exchange rate; trade war; Salter Coden Model; VECM ------------------------------------------- Pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah dan guncangan eksternal seperti perang dagang diprediksi akan memberikan tekanan terhadap neraca perdagangan. Berdasarkan analisis VECM, nilai tukar rupiah dan neraca perdagangan Indonesia secara agregat mengikuti fenomena J-Curve. Perang dagang terbukti memengaruhi depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah dan neraca perdagangan Indonesia. Terdapat delapan industri berorientasi ekspor yang memiliki resiliensi terhadap guncangan dan diklasifikasikan menjadi empat, yakni: (i) Kelompok industri yang mengikuti fenomena J-Curve sepenuhnya; (ii) Kelompok industri dengan fenomena J-Curve pada jangka panjang; (iii) Kelompok industri yang tidak sepenuhnya mengikuti fenomena J-Curve, dan (iv) Industri lainnya. Implikasi studi ini menekankan pengembangan industri yang berorientasi ekspor dan intensif tenaga kerja (Salter-Corden model).
El Nino And Determinants of The Output of Micro and Small Industry in Java Hermanto Siregar; Fahmi Salam Ahmad; Heni Hasanah; Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu
Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) Vol. 6 No. 1 (2020): IJBE, Vol. 6 No. 1, January 2020
Publisher : School of Business, IPB University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/ijbe.6.1.97

Abstract

Micro and small industry sector plays an important role in the economy of a country including Indonesia, due to its large contribution to gross domestic product and its large labor absorption. The output of the sector is influenced by economic variables and non-economic factors such as the El Nino climate phenomenon. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of these economic factors and the climate phenomenon on the output of micro and small industries in Java by using panel data, which are combination of cross section and time series, i.e. 6 provinces of Java from 2011 to 2017. The results showed that these economic factors have positive effect on the output while El Nino has negative effect. In accordance with these results, the government needs to actively facilitate micro and small industries in the fulfillment of economic factors and assist the business actors in anticipating and mitigating the impact of El Nino. Keywords: Economic factors, El Nino, micro and small industry, panel data method
The Impact of El Nino on Inflation in Regional Indonesia: Spatial Panel Approach Fahmi Salam Ahmad; Hermanto Siregar; Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 8, No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1474.118 KB) | DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v8i1.7130

Abstract

The study about the relationship between climate and economy is essential because it’s understanding is the key to formulate the effective economic policy. El Nino is one of the climate phenomena's that directly impact Indonesia, so it is necessary to analyze its effect on the macroeconomic condition such as inflation. This study aims to analyze the impact of El Nino as an external factor and the impact of another relevant economic factor on the macroeconomic condition such as inflation at the regional level (province) in Indonesia. The method used is a spatial panel method to capture the effect of inter-regional spatial interactions. The results show that El Nino has a positive effect on inflation in the southern Indonesian provinces that are affected by El Nino, but no effect in northern Indonesia. The other significant determinants of regional inflation are minimum wage, local revenue, local government spending, and infrastructure. There is significant spatial dependence on regional inflation in Indonesia, indicating that the inflations of its neighboring provinces influence the inflation of a province.
Dampak Pembangunan Jalan Tol Trans Jawa terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Jawa Tengah: Institut Pertanian Bogor Fahmi salam Ahmad
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 11 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.11.1.2022.1-18

Abstract

Road infrastructure as an element in transportation services is an important element in supporting mobility in the economic, social and cultural fields. One of the road infrastructures, namely toll roads, are built with the aim of increasing the efficiency of distribution services in order to support economic growth in order to realize the equitable development and the stability in regional development. This study analyzes the impact of the construction of Trans Java toll road on the economic growth of districts/cities in Central Java, one of the provinces crossed by this toll road. The analytical tool used is panel data regression. The results of the analysis show that the existence of toll roads increases economic growth in the districts/cities they pass through. Therefore, the agenda for expanding the coverage of districts/cities covered by toll roads in Central Java needs to be continued in order to support the stable and equitable development. Meanwhile, other factors such as human resources and the contribution of the agricultural sector also affect economic growth.
Covid-19 Pandemic and Volatility of Sugar Price at Regional Level in Indonesia for The Period August 2018-August 2021 Birka Septy Meliany; Sahara; Mutiara Probokawuryan; Fahmi Salam Ahmad
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 19 No. 2 (2022): JMA Vol. 19 No. 2, July 2022
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jma.19.2.229

Abstract

It is expected that the COVID-19 pandemic provides a significant impact on food price volatility in many products including sugar. The paper aims to analyze the price dynamic of sugar before covid (1st August – 2nd March 2020) and during the covid outbreak (3rd March – 31th August 2021) in all provinces in Indonesia by using the t-test and ARCH GARCH model. Based on Augmented Dickey-Fuller analysis before and during covid, the prices of sugar in Indonesia were stationary at the “first difference”. The results reveal that the prices of sugar in all provinces in Indonesia before covid was lower compared to during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to ARCH GARCH results, sugar prices were much more volatile in Riau, Jambi, West Java, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and West Papua. As such, the government should focus to reduce the price volatility of sugar in these provinces. Keywords: ARCH GARCH, COVID-19, sugar prices, stationarity, volatility
Co-Authors Birka Septy Meliany Heni Hasanah Hermanto Siregar Hermanto Siregar Muhammad Fazri Muhammad Firdaus Mutiara Probokawuryan Rini Satriani Sahara Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu Syarifah Amaliah