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<![CDATA[PENDEKATAN KOREKSI KESALAHAN DALAM PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN STUDI KASUS: PENDAPATAN DAN PENAWARAN UANG DI INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>;
<![CDATA[Saleh, Samsubar]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 16, No 1 (2001): January ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business ]]>
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<![CDATA[This paper attempts to introduce and apply the error correction method to estimate the simultanous-equation models and compares its results with the similar method in the case of single equation model.The empirical results show that the estimations in the case of simultanous-equation models have the similar conclusions with the case of single equation models since the fitted values of dependent variables in the reduced-form estimations are relatively close to its actual values. On the other hand, they will be quite diffrence if the fitted values of dependent variables in the reduced-form estimations quite differ from its actual values.The results show that short-run changes in money supply (M) and investment (I) have significant and positive effects on income (Y) while government expenditure (G) is insignificant and that about 0,9151% of the discrepancy between the actual and the long-run, or equilibrium, value of Y is corrected each year by the single equation assumption and 0,8706% by the simultanous-equation assumption.The results also show that short-run changes in income (Y) have significant and positive effects while interest rate (R) is insignificant on money supply (M) and that about 0,2327% of the discrepancy between the actual and the long-run, or equilibrium, value of M is corrected each year by the single equation assumption and 0,2346% by the simultanous-equation assumption.Keywords: ordinary least square, two stages least square, error correction method.]]>
<![CDATA[EMPIRICAL STUDY OF VOLATILITY PROCESS ON ERROR CORRECTION MODEL ESTIMATION ]]>
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 17, No 4 (2002): October ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business ]]>
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<![CDATA[Ada dua tujuan yang ingin dicapai dalam penelitian ini. Pertama, adalah untuk menyelidiki apakah dalam estimasi model koreksi kesalahan atau error correction model (ECM) terdapat proses volatilitas. Jika ternyata ada, maka model estimasi koreksi kesalahan seharusnya diestimasi dengan menggunakan model volatilitas. Hasil empirik estimasi ECM ternyata mengindikasikan adanya proses volatilitas yang ditunjukkan oleh signifikannya pengujian Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH).Tujuan kedua adalah untuk menentukan model yang paling baik antara estimasi ECM dan estimasi ECM yang diikuti dengan proses volatilitas. Setelah dilakukan estimasi terhadap kedua model tersebut ternyata dapat disimpulkan bahwa estimasi model ECM dengan proses Generalized ARCH (EC-GARCH) lebih baik dibandingkan dengan estimasi model ECM. Sebagai contoh kasus digunkan model estimasi indeks harga saham gabungan di bursa efek Jakarta (BEJ).Keywords: error correction model, volatility process, GARCH, EC-GARCH.]]>
<![CDATA[ANALISIS KESENJANGAN TABUNGAN-INVESTASI BERDASARKAN RESIDUAL MODEL: STUDI KASUS ASEAN-4 ]]>
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 18, No 1 (2003): January ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business ]]>
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<![CDATA[This paper attempts to explain and estimate the two-gap analysis in terms of capitalmobility by residual of econometric models. The research presents the cases of ASEAN-4(Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). The two-gap analysis is an identity and itcannot be estimated by the econometric method. For the purposes of this research, first the identity is modified in econometric models. Second, then the modified models could beestimated.Estimating identity with econometric model has at least two advantages. (1) Theresidual of econometric model could be interpreted as the variables that are not allowed inthe model. (2) The residual of econometric model is minimized, so the residual model interm of this research could be interpreted as minimum value of the government or privatesaving-investment gap.The results show the models that have been modified in econometric models can capturethe identity of two-gap analysis. The better estimated models to explain the capital mobility of those countries are the private saving-investment gap models, except for Indonesian case. Moreover, the residuals of the private saving-investment gap models can capture the estimated values of the government saving-investment gaps, especially in the cases of Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand.Keywords: two-gap analysis; saving-investment gap; ordinary least squares; errorcorrection model.]]>
<![CDATA[ANALISA DAMPAK REVALUASI ASET TETAP TERHADAP HARGA PASAR DAN RETURN SAHAM YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[puspitasari, dwi puspitasari]]>;
<![CDATA[Anggraeni, Lukytawati]]>;
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal ASET (Akuntansi Riset) Vol 10, No 1 (2018): Jurnal ASET (Akuntansi Riset). Januari-Juni 2018 [DOAJ & SINTA INDEXED] ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia ]]>
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DOI: 10.17509/jaset.v10i1.12458
<![CDATA[Abstract. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of fixed asset revaluation towards market reaction proxied by stock price and stock return of public listed company in Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period of 2007 until 2016. Revaluation is one of valuation methode of fixed asset used to give more accuracy and fair information about the the condition of the company for those interested parties. The samples in this research used 18 companies which applied revaluation method were selected by purposive sampling technique. The method of analysis in this study using regression analysis. This study showed fixed asset revaluation is not significant influence to the stock price and stock return. These results have practical implication to corporate manager for financial strategy for increasing the value of the company. Keywords: Fixed assets revaluation, stock price, stock return Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti pengaruh revaluasi aset tetap terhadap reaksi pasar yang ditunjukan dengan harga pasar saham perusahaan publik yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama tahun 2007 sampai 2016. Revaluasi merupakan salah satu metode penilaian aset tetap yang bertujuan untuk memberikan informasi yang akurat dan wajar tentang kondisi perusahaan kepada pihak yang membutuhkan. Sampel pada penelitian ini menggunakan 18 perusahaan yang menerapkan metode revaluasi yang dipilih dengan metode purposive sampling. Metode analisa dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisa regresi. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa revaluasi aset tetap tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga pasar dan return saham. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan implikasi kepada manajemen untuk strategi keuangan dalam meningkatkan nilai perusahaan. Kata Kunci: Revaluasi aset tetap, harga pasar saham, return saham]]>
<![CDATA[EFEK THRESHOLD INFLASI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI REGIONAL DI INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[Kusumatrisna, Adam Luthfi]]>;
<![CDATA[Sugema, Iman]]>;
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 27 No 1 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Economic Research Center, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (P2E-LIPI) ]]>
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DOI: 10.14203/JEP.27.1.2019.43-52
<![CDATA[Penelitian terbaru menyatakan bahwa hubungan antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidaklah linier. Ketika inflasi melebihi ambang batas tertentu, akan berdampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki hubungan linear dan non-linear antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia menggunakan data panel provinsi. Hubungan linier diuji menggunakan panel fixed effect model sementara hubungan non-linear menggunakan panel threshold fixed effect model. Saat dilakukan uji secara linear, inflasi di Indonesia memiliki efek negatif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi begitu juga dengan pertumbuhan rasio pengeluaran pemerintah dan pertumbuhan penduduk. Sementara pertumbuhan investasi dan pertumbuhan keterbukaan ekonomi memiliki efek positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ketika melakukan uji non-linear, inflasi di Indonesia berdampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya ketika melebihi 9,57 dan 9,59 persen. Sementara itu saat inflasi melebihi 5,09 persen, pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia melambat. Kebijakan pengendalian inflasi tetap harus dilakukan untuk mengurangi dampak buruk inflasi, karena inflasi yang tinggi dan berfluktuasi tidak baik bagi perekonomian. Studi ini menyarankan pihak terkait seperti Bank Indonesia (BI) dan Tim Pemantauan dan Pengendalian Inflasi Daerah (TPID) untuk berhati-hati saat inflasi mulai melebihi angka 5,09 persen dan waspada saat inflasi melebihi angka 9,57 persen dan 9,59 persen. ]]>
<![CDATA[Cigarette Consumer and Poverty in Indonesia ]]>
<![CDATA[Margareth, Ruth Fenny]]>;
<![CDATA[Novianti, Tanti]]>;
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Budapest International Research and Critics Institute (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences Vol 4, No 3 (2021): Budapest International Research and Critics Institute August ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Budapest International Research and Critics University ]]>
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DOI: 10.33258/birci.v4i3.2125
<![CDATA[Poverty is still a social phenomenon that always exists in every developing country, including Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to describe the condition of cigarette consumers and poverty in Indonesia and to analyze the factors that influence poverty in Indonesia. The method used is descriptive analysis and panel data analysis with 18 provinces in Indonesia in 2015-2019. The results of this study indicate that NTT Province is the province with the highest poverty rate. The variable of cigarette consumers has a negative influence on poverty which is dominated by the Province of Lampung. However, this study contradicts the research of Supriadi and Rusyiana (2018) where poor households that have household members who smoke consume relatively less rice on average than households that do not have household members who smoke, whether they are in the poor category or not. The results of the static panel data show that the factors that affect poverty in Indonesia are income per capita(PDRB per capita), unemployment (TPT), means years school (RLS), while the dynamic panel shows that the factors that influence poverty are cigarette consumer (PMP) and mean years school (RLS).]]>
<![CDATA[The Economy of Indonesia: Driven by Physical or Human Capital? ]]>
<![CDATA[Agusalim, Lestari]]>;
<![CDATA[Anggraeni, Lukytawati]]>;
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul H.]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 15, No 1 (2022): March 2022 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v15i1.34418
<![CDATA[This study aims to analyze whether economic growth in Indonesia is driven by physical or human capital using panel data analysis consisting of all provinces over the last nine years. The estimation results show that the Indonesian economy is more likely to be driven by physical than human capital. The formation of human capital that has a significant positive effect on economic growth is health. However, the education variable represented by the mean years schooling has no significant effect on economic growth when including the control variable in the research model. To improve the quality of education, the state requires the government to provide substantial educational spending. However, the budget has not been used optimally so that the expected achievements of graduates are not achieved. In addition, education spending has not met the criteria for quality spending. In contrast to education spending, an increase in health spending will increase economic growth by improving the quality of health and life expectancy. A healthier society will have a high level of productivity that impacts the regional and national economy.]]>
<![CDATA[Economic Complexity and Sustainable Growth in Developing Countries ]]>
<![CDATA[Hoeriyah, Lilis]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuryartono, Nunung]]>;
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 11 No 1 (2022): Economics Development Analysis Journal ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v11i1.47294
<![CDATA[Most developing countries in this study are middle to low-income countries that have a relatively low economic complexity. This study aims to analyze the effect of the economic complexity on economic growth in 86 developing countries in 2010-2019. The method used is the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to capture dynamic panel analysis. The estimation results using the System GMM show that economic complexity has a positive effect on economic growth in developing countries. Increasing economic complexity encourages a structural transformation through high value-added economic sectors' creation to produce more complex products for earning a higher income. Human capital does not have a significant effect on economic growth because developing countries have relatively low-quality workers both in terms of education and health. The human capital development and government spending on the health sector are necessary to accelerate sustainable economic growth.]]>
<![CDATA[Analisis Kesejahteraan Petani: Pola Penguasaan Lahan Di Kabupaten Lamongan ]]>
<![CDATA[Alfiana Ainurrahma]]>;
<![CDATA[Nunung R Nuryartono]]>;
<![CDATA[Syamsul H Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 7 No 2 (2018): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
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DOI: 10.29244/jekp.7.2.2018.102-117
<![CDATA[Pola penguasaan lahan mempengaruhi efektivitas sektor pertanian. Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penguasaan lahan pertanian dan menghitung koefisien Gini penguasaan lahan pertanian di Kabupaten Lamongan. Data yang digunakan adalah data cross section rumah tangga usaha pertanian di Kabupaten Lamongan . Data diperoleh dari Sensus Pertanian 2013 dengan total observasi sebanyak 189 343 rumah tangga pertanian. Penelitian ini menggunakan Analisis Regresi Berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa usia kepala rumah tangga, jenis kelamin kepala rumah tangga, ukuran rumah tangga, dan jenis pendapatan utama secara signifikan mempengaruhi penguasaan lahan basah. Sedangkan faktor yang tidak signifikan mempengaruhi penguasaan lahan kering adalah jenis kelamin kepala rumah dan usia kepala rumah tangga. Terkait lahan basah sebagai sarana akumulasi aset bagi rumah tangga petani, hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa petani mengalami penurunan dalam akumulasi marjinal lahan basah. Selain itu, koefisien Gini penguasaan lahan pertanian di Kabupaten Lamongan adalah 0.49 dan menunjukkan bahwa ketimpangan distribusi penguasaan lahan pertanian antar rumah tangga usaha pertanian di Kabupaten Lamongan cenderung moderat.]]>
<![CDATA[The Volatility Processes In Indonesia’s Demand For Narrow Money ]]>
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Vol. 7 No. 2 (2002) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Islam Indonesia ]]>
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DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v7i2.648
<![CDATA[There were two purposes of this research. The first purpose was to test and search the volatility processes by using ARCH/GARCH methodology in Indonesia’s demand for narrow money estimation, which was approached by error correction modeling (ECM). The empirical evidences had shown that the estimation of Indonesia’s demand for narrow money contained the volatility processes (GARCH processes). The second purpose was to prove that the estimation of ECM, which contained the GARCH processes, had the better abilities for prediction than its benchmark. For this pur-pose, the research compared the predictive powers of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Parentage Error (MAPE). However, the empirical evidences supported the second purpose.Keywords: error correction modeling (ECM), volatility processes, ARCH, GARCH, narrow money.]]>
