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A Multiplier Model of Money Stock Control for lndonesia Warjiyo, Perry
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 38, Number 4, 1990
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

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MENGUKUR TIME INCONSISTENCY KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA Rini Rahmahdian; Perry Warjiyo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 15 No 4 (2013)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This study measured the time inconsistency of monetary policy in Indonesia using the asymmetric preference parameter in linear exponential loss function of the central bank. Asymmetric central bank preference becomes an important issue since many of the results on the time inconsistency problem under symmetric preferences may no longer hold under asymmetric preferences. Using two sub-samples, i.e. before and after the implementation of central bank independence act, the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the output gap were estimated and then proceed to estimate the reduced form of the model. The results showed the existence of an asymmetric preference parameter before the Bank Indonesia independence act, which indicated the presence of a time inconsistency problem of monetary policy. This finding implies Bank Indonesia put a negative weight instead of positive weight on the output gap prior to its independency. However, after the implementation of central bank independence, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia has been consistent with symmetric policy preference over price stability and output. Keywords: Time inconsistency, discretionary, monetary policy, asymmetric central bank preference, output gap, inflation bias.JEL Classification : E52, E58

ANALISIS PERILAKU INSTABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN KETERKAITAN EKONOMI MAKRO, PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN SEKTOR PERTANIAN Andi Irawan; Perry Warjiyo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 8 No 3 (2005)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

In general the aim of this study is to investigate short-run relationships among macroeconomy, international trade and agriculture in Indonesia. Under such circumstances, the specific goals of this research is to analyze whicheconomic blocks that have most affected by instability, as well as producing instability in the economy.We apply the Vector Error Correction Model on monthly series data from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The main resultof this study shows asfollow: 1) that the asset financial and the commodity demand blocks the most producing instability in the economy. On the other hand, the export block producing the least instability to the economy. The finding suggest that government should concentrate attention on asset financial andthe commodity demand blocks in stabilizing the economy, as they are major sources of instability of the economy.2) To stabilize the commodity demand, it is also necessary to stabilize the financial market, as the assets demand block is the most contributor of the instability in the commodity demand block. In other words, money demand is the main source of instability. Because money supply is determined bygovernment, the disequlibrium error measure the excess supply of money in the market. This suggest that monetary policy that reduces the disequlibrium error can help stabilize the economy.JEL Classification: C22, F17, Q11, Q18Keyword: Instabilitas, Disequilibrium Error, perdagangan internasional, pertanian, VECM, fiscal policy

Changing Perspectives on Exchange Rates: Theory and Policy Implications Perry Warjiyo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 8 No 3 (2005)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper reviews theoretical and empirical perspectives pertaining to the nature and impacts of exchange rate movements on macroeconomic conditions, and their fundamental ramifications on macroeconomic and monetary policies. In particular, we show that, with increasing speed and scope of financial globalization and cross-border capital flows, the view on exchange rate has been changing from trade flows to financial asset views. Exchange rate movements have been exhibiting greater volatility beyond fundamentals and often deviate from equilibrium, driven by factors such as shifts in risk premia, investor preferences, as well as underlying economic and financial conditions. Policy implications from such a changing perspective on exchange rate have been pervasive. Exchange rate has not been singled out as an instrument for increasing a country’s external sector competitiveness in the modern literature of international finance. Rather, it constitutes an integral part of policy mix for coping with the impossible trinity of macroeconomic objectives in open economy, i.e. for benefiting from greater capital mobility while still maintaining stable exchange rate movements and domestic policy independence. The complete policy responses would include direct measures for stabilizing exchange rate, some forms of capital controls, and the implementation of inflation targeting framework of monetary policy.JEL Classification Numbers: E5, F3, F4Keywords: Monetary Policy, International Finance, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

STABILITAS SISTEM PERBANKAN DAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER : KETERKAITAN DAN PERKEMBANGANNYA DI INDONESIA Perry Warjiyo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 8 No 4 (2006)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper reviews the inter-linkage between banking stability and monetary policy, with a reference to the Indonesian case since the 1997 crisis. In particular, it shows how monetary transmission mechanism would be inhibited and thus monetary policy would not be effective when the banking system is not sound and stable, such as during a crisis period. Conversely, the stance and response of monetary policy would have significant impacts on banking stability as inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate constitute major market risks to banking operations. For Indonesia, a close inter-linkage between banking instability and monetary policy ineffectiveness has been vividly evidenced during the crisis period of 1997 – 1999. Subsequently, however, with progress of the banking restructuring programs that Indonesia authorities have undertaken, the banking conditions have imporved considerably since 2000. As banking intermediation improved, not only has financing to economic growth increased but also monetary transmission mechanisms strengthened considerably. Nonetheless, excess liquidity that banking system is still experiencing, especially because of lack of feasible investment outlests in the real sector and high perceived credit risks from the bankers, poses serious challenges to the central bank for better coordination and striking the optimal balance between maintaining monetary and banking stability while continue to promoting economic growth.Keyword: banking stability, monetary policy, IndonesiaJEL : G21, E52, N25

Mencari Paradigma Baru Manajemen Moneter Dalam SIstem Nilai Tukar Fleksibel: Suaru Pemikiran untuk Penerapannya di Indonesia Hartadi A. Sarwono; Perry Warjiyo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 1 No 1 (1998)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Kebijakan moneter Indonesia sampai saat ini pada dasarnya masih menggunakan paradigma lama yang mengandalkan mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter melalui pengendalian jumlah uang beredar dalam mempengaruhi kegiatan ekonomi. Perekonomian Indonesia yang berubah cepat dan semakin terbuka, khususnya sejak langkah-langkah deregulasi di segala bidang sejak tahun delapan puluhan, ditengah-tengah lingkungan perekonomian dunia yang semakin terintegrasi, telah menyebabkan paradigma lama sistem pengendalian moneter dengan sasaran kuantitas (monetary aggregates targetting) tersebut menjadi semakin kurang relevan. Lebih dari itu, deregulasi dan globalisasi selama ini juga telah mendorong sektor keuangan berkembang sangat cepat ke arah bekerjanya mekanisme pasar, timbulnya inovasi produk-produk keuangan baru dan gejala sekuritisasi, membaurnya operasi bank dengan lembaga-lembaga keuangan lainnya, serta terjadinya transnasionalisasi keuangan. Kesemuanya ini menyebabkan proses penciptaan uang lebih banyak lagi terjadi di luar kendali otoritas moneter sehingga pelaksanaan kebijakan moneter sering menjadi kurang efektif.Di sisi lain, pasar keuangan dunia yang semakin terintegrasi dan ditunjang oleh semakin pesatnya perkembangan teknologi informasi dan komunikasi, telah menyebabkan perpindahan modal bergerak lebih cepat dan seringkali dalam jumlah yang besar mengikuti perkembangan ekonomi dan perubahan kebijakan suatu negara. Sebagai akibatnya, hampir tidak mungkin bagi otoritas moneter suatu negara untuk mengendalikan secara pasti perkembangan agregat-agregat moneter di dalam negeri. Sasaran agregat moneter yang diinginkan otoritas moneter sering tidak dapat dicapai karena arus modal internasional yang keluar maupun masuk dalam jumlah yang besar dan dalam waktu yang singkat. Pengalaman kita selama ini menunjukkan semakin sulitnya mengarahkan agregat moneter sesuai dengan yang dikehendaki, terutama dalam jangka pendek. Masalah ini terjadi karena uang beredar memang berada diluar kendali otoritas moneter, dimana perkembangannya lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh kegiatan ekonomi dan bukan sebaliknya.Tulisan ini ingin mengajukan proposisi mengenai sistem pengendalian moneter dengan penggunaan suku bunga dan nilai tukar sebagai intermediate target dalam mencapai sasaran akhir yakni inflasi. Mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter melalui suku bunga dan nilai tukar ini, atau disebut sebagai indikator kondisi moneter, diharapkan dapat memberikan signal yang lebih cepat kepada otoritas moneter dalam rangka menstabilisasikan harga.

Penggunaan Suku Bunga Sebagai Sasaran Operasional Kebijakan Moneter Di Indonesia Perry Warjiyo; Doddy Zulverdi
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 1 No 1 (1998)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Salah satu alternatif pendekatan untuk meningkatkan kinerja kebijakan moneter Bank Indonesia adalah dengan menerapkan sistem pengendalian moneter menggunakan suku bunga sebagai sasaran operasional. Berkaitan dengan itu, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: i) terdapat suatu keyakinan yang cukup kuat bahwa transmisi kebijakan moneter melalui suku bunga menjadi semakin penting dibandingkan dengan transmisi melalui jumlah uang beredar sehingga penerapan sistem pengendalian moneter menggunakan suku bunga sebagai sasaran operasional layak untuk dipertimbangkan; ii) terdapat hubungan yang cukup erat antara laju inflasi dan suku bunga (deposito berjangka satu bulan dan kredit modal kerja); dan iii) suku bunga PUAB dapat dipertimbangkan untuk menjadi sasaran operasional karena memiliki kaitan yang erat dengan suku bunga deposito, mencerminkan kondisi likuiditas di pasar uang, dan sekaligus dapat dipengaruhi oleh instrumenOPT khususnya suku bunga SBPU.Terdapat beberapa syarat bagi efektivitas sistem pengendalian moneter menggunakan suku bunga sebagai sasaran operasional, yaitu: i) Sasaran akhir kebijakan moneter sebaiknya diprioritaskan pada pengendalian underlying/core inflation, yaitu komponen inflasi yang diyakini benar-benar dipengaruhi faktor-faktor moneter; ii) Untuk meminimalkan pengaruh negatif tekanan-tekanan eksternal terhadap efektivitas kebijakan moneter, sistem nilai tukar yang fleksibel (mengambang) menjadi pilihan utama dibandingkan dengan sistem nilaitukar tetap; iii) Anggaran pemerintah harus “fully budget” dalam arti setiap defisit/surplus anggaran harus setiap saat dibiayai/diserap oleh instrumen utang pemerintah; iv) Untuk memelihara kestabilan permintaan di pasar uang, kinerja sistem pembayaran harus terus-menerus ditingkatkan.

PERBANKAN SYARIAH DAN PERBANKAN BERDASARKAN BUNGA: MANAKAH YANG LEBIH OPTIMAL? Tarsidin Tarsidin; Perry Warjiyo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 9 No 2 (2006)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Unlike the conventional interest-base bank, the Islamic banks use both equity financing with profit sharing and debt-like financing with mark-up, ad at the funding side they use both investment scheme with revenue sharing and deposit scheme with rewards. The conventional bank use debt financing with interest and at the funding side use the deposit scheme with interest as well. The optimality of the two banking systems will be tested to determine which one is more optimal in terms of the wealth of the bank shareholder, the welfare of the entrepreneur, and the welfare of the depositors.Using a multiperiod static optimization approach, the results shows that in the interest-based banking is more optimal in terms of the shareholder wealth and the depositor’s welfare, while the Islamic banking is more optimal in terms of the entrepreneur welfare.Keywords : sistem perbankan, bank syariah, bunga, bagi hasil, mudharabah, wadi'ahJEL Classification : G21, P51

PERILAKU PENAWARAN KREDIT BANK DI INDONESIA: KASUS PASAR OLIGOPOLI PERIODE JANUARI 2001-JULI 2005 Chaikal Nuryakin; Perry Warjiyo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 9 No 2 (2006)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

This paper uses a microeconomic approach to analyze the bank lending behavior in Indonesia during 2001:1 – 2005:7. The loan supply function is derived from the structural loan supply and demand equation in a Cournot-Oligopoly market. We treat the loan supply function as structural error component of the model, and apply to data of the 15 biggest banks in Indonesia.The proposed hypothesis; the bank engages in the profit maximization, cannot be rejected. This bank behavior is in conjunction with the bank’s interdependency. However, due to the internal inefficiency of the bank, the profit maximization behavior does not refflect the ideal condition of the banking intermediation function, not int the loan volume nor in the lending rate.Morever, the bank’s lending behavior respond positively with the loan rate, responds negatively on the interest liability (time deposit interest) and respond negatively on the investment alternative (the SBI). In addition, the SBI rate as a monetary policy instrument is not effective relative to loan interest rate to guide the banks in choosing between these two portfolio investments.Keywords : loan, cournot, interest rate, bank, pool analysisJEL Classification : C23, D43, E52, G21

PERGERAKAN BERSAMA MATA UANG ASEAN 4 PERIODE 1997-2005: SUATU APLIKASI TEORI OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION Moch. Doddy Ariefianto; Perry Warjiyo
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 4 (2010)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Starting from the Optimum Currency Area (OCA), this paper utilize the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to identify the dynamic short term and the long term co-movement between the ASEAN 4 currencies, including their existing fundamental mechanism. There are at least 3 important findings, (i)the co-movement between the ASEAN 4 currencies is not proved empirically, (ii) the theory of OCA does not robust in explaining the co-movement pattern in ASEAN, and (iii) the existance of OCA is a global phenomena, indicated from the significance of Yen currency on the ASEAN 4. These findings led to a conclusion of this paper that the ongoing economic integration as well as the financial one in ASEAN are not enough to form a unified monetary arrangement nor a common currency in this region.JEL Classification : F02, F36, F33, C32Keywords: Pergerakan Bersama, Optimum Currency Area, Vector Error Correction Model

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