Penyakit rongga mulut yang sering diderita anak adalah karies gigi. Hasil penelitian terdahulu menunjukkan prevalensi karies gigi anak di Palembang sebesar 92,43%. Pempek makanan khas jenis karbohidrat lengket yang dimakan bersama kuahnya (cuko), kebiasaan anak di Palembang mengkonsumsi pempek lebih dari 2 kali sehari. Frekuensi konsumsi karbohidrat yang sering berakibat karies gigi. Kebiasaan anak di Palembang mengkonsumsi pempek merupakan faktor risiko terjadinya karies gigi. Risiko karies gigi perlu diketahui untuk melihat kisaran karies baru yang dapat terjadi. Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi risiko terjadinya karies baru berdasarkan frekuensi konsumsi pempek di Palembang. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian observasional dengan desain cross sectional. Pengambilan sampel menggunakan tekhnik cluster, subjek penelitian sebanyak 305 anak dari 52 SD di Palembang. Pengukuran prediksi risiko karies menggunakan cariogram dengan cara mengumpulkan data survei diet frekuensi konsumsi secara keseluruhan dan frekuensi konsumsi pempek, DMF-T, kapasitas buffer, sekresi saliva, plak skor, program fluor dan penyakit umum. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan prediksi risiko karies anak usia 11-12 tahun di Palembang 65,72% (kategori tinggi) kontribusi pempek 45,83% dari total konsumsi makan keseluruhan. Peluang menghindari karies sebesar 34,28%. Urutan penyebab risiko karies adalah kerentanan (31,0%), pola makan (17,36%), bakteri (8,91%) dan keadaan lain yang berpengaruh (5,35%). Kesimpulan penelitian, prediksi risiko terjadinya karies baru pada anak usia 11-12 tahun di Palembang termasuk kategori tinggi, pempek menyumbang 45,83% dari total konsumsi keseluruhan. Urutan prediksi risiko karies anak usia 11-12 tahun di Palembang, kerentanan, pola makan, bakteri dan faktor lain yang berpengaruh.  ABSTRACT. Prediction of The Risk Of New Caries Base on Pempek Consumption on Children Age 11-12 Years Old In Palembang. The oral cavity disease often suffered by children is dental caries. The previous research suggested that the prevalence of dental caries in Palembang was 92.43%. Pempek is a typical type of carbohydrate food which is eaten together with its gravy (namely cuko). Children in Palembang usually consume the food more than twice a day. The high of frequently consumption of carbohydrate often can effect in dental caries. The risk of dental caries is necessary to investigate to predict the new caries incidence. This research is aimed at predicting the risk of new caries incidence based on the consumption frequency of pempek in Palembang. This research (study) used quantitative observational method with cross sectional design and cluster sampling technique. The subject study included 305 children selected from 52 elementary schools in Palembang. Cariogram model was applied to assess the prediction of the risk of caries by collecting data on diet survey, the overall frequency of pempek consumption, DMF-T, buffer capacity, secretion of saliva, plaque score, fluor program, and common diseases. The results showed that the risk of caries incidence in Palembang was 65.72% (high) while contribution of pempek was 45.83% out of the total food consumption. The chance of avoiding caries was 34.28%. Meanwhile, the influential factors in dental caries were susceptibility (31.0%), diet (17.36%), bacteria (8.91%), and other influential factors (5.35%). This study suggested that the risk of new caries incidence in Palembang was categorized as high.Pempek contributed 45.83% of the overall food consumption. The sequence of factors influencing the risk of caries incidence in Palembang was susceptibility, diet pattern, bacteria, and other influential factors.