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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Journal of Mathematics and Applied Statistics
Sulma Sulma
Universitas Muhammadiyah Bulukumba
Mathematics

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Kontrol Optimal Dinamika Penyebaran Covid-19 Dengan Karantina Dan Vaksinasi: Kontrol Optimal Dinamika Penyebaran Covid-19 Dengan Karantina Dan Vaksinasi Sulma Sulma; Muhammad Rifki Nisardi; Suriani Suriani; Hukmah Hukmah; Harianto Harianto; Dian Firmayasari
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi Vol. 19 No. 2 (2023): JANUARY 2023
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/j.v19i2.23989

Abstract

Vaccination and quarantine are effective ways to control the spread of disease. Vaccination helps susceptible individuals to boost immunity. Additionally, quarantine helps reduce interactions which will reduce the infection rate. This study proposed the SEIR mathematical model to describe the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 by providing control in the form of vaccination and quarantine. Based on Pontryagin's minimum principle, the optimal system for optimal control problems is derived and solved numerically using the Fourth Order Runge-Kutta scheme with the Forward-Backward Sweep approach. A numerical simulation of the optimal problem showed that the spread of disease is eradicated more quickly by vaccination and quarantine. Vaccination in large numbers is needed earlier if the rate of contact transmission is high enough. The provision of quarantine control is required from the beginning until no longer to be applied. A large proportion of quarantine at the beginning of time can suppress the spread of disease in the population.  
Peramalan Produksi Telur Ayam dengan Metode Holt Double Exponential Smoothing Hukmah; Muhammad Rifki Nisardi; Sulma Sulma; Suriani M; Yusrini Yusrini
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 6 No. 2 (2023): Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika: Permasalahan dan Solusinya
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v6i2.2789

Abstract

Tingkat konsumsi telur ayam lebih tinggi diantara produk hewani lainnya. Bukan hanya sebagai lauk pauk, tetapi juga sebagai bahan pembuatan kue. Hal tersebut menunjukkan kebutuhan masyarakat terhadap produk hewani ini perlu diatur ketersediaanya. Salah satu cara adalah meramalkan produksi telur ayam pada beberapa periode berikutnya. Peramalan produksi telur dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode Holt Double Exponential Smoothing. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode tersebut cukup efektif meramalkan produksi telur ayam dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,59%. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa produksi telur ayam untuk 12 minggu berikutnya akan mengalami penurunan produksi. Hal tersebut dipengaruhi oleh usia ternak yang produktivitasnya berkurang dengan pertambahan usia dan faktor lingkungan.
Calculation of Actuarial Values Using The Result of The 2019 Makeham Mortality Law Contruction and The Cox Ingersoll Ros Suriani M; Muhammad Rifki Nisardi; Nursamsi Nursamsi; Hukmah Hukmah; Sulma Sulma
Journal of Mathematics and Applied Statistics Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : Yayasan Insan Literasi Cendekia (INLIC) Indonesia

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Abstract

Premium is an amount of money that must be paid by the customer at a certain time based on the insurance policy. This study aims to determine the value of whole life insurance premiums using the Makeham mortality law method and the Cox Ingersoll Ross (CIR) model. The result of the study obtained the calculation of interest rates using the CIR model, the smaller the  value, the greater discount and the premium paid using the Makeham mortality law method was Rp. 102.478 < premium <  Rp. 1.270.630 / Mounth.
Application of Exponential and Logistic Models in Estimating the Population of Bulukumba Regency in 2020-2030 Sulma Sulma; Nursamsi Nursamsi
Journal of Mathematics and Applied Statistics Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Yayasan Insan Literasi Cendekia (INLIC) Indonesia

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Abstract

Population data is useful as planning material in making various policies, including avoiding imbalances between the number of health facilities and services and the population in an area as well as other facilities such as schools, markets, and other public facilities. Ordinary differential equations of exponential and logistic models are used in modeling population dynamics in Bulukumba Regency to obtain population estimates until 2030. The determination of the future population of Bulukumba Regency is based on the growth rate and capacity obtained using the exponential and logistic approaches. The results obtained show that the estimation using the exponential model and the logistic model estimation for 2015-2019 are close to the data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. However, the logistic model is more accurate than the exponential model which is more significantly close to the data from BPS. So that the results of the logistic model are better than the exponential. The logistic model assumes that Bulukumba Regency has a capacity of K = 450000, while the exponential model assumes that the population increases exponentially.
Co-Authors Dian Firmayasari Harianto Harianto Hukmah Hukmah Hukmah Hukmah Hukmah Muhammad Rifki Nisardi Nursamsi Nursamsi Suriani M Suriani Suriani Yusrini Yusrini