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Implementation of Exponential Smoothing in Forecasting the Export Value Price of Oil and Gas in Indonesia Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.; Rusli Rusli; Nachnoer Arss; Alok Kumar Panday
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 4 No. 4 (2023)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.qems1022

Abstract

This study aims to predict the value of oil and gas export prices in Indonesia using exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing was applied because the data analysis revealed that the data consisted of trends and seasonal components. This study uses secondary data obtained from the website of the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia, covering the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia every month from January 2010 to March 2022. The study obtained the exponential smoothing parameters, including α = 0.5153984, β = 0.06410119, and g = 0.7137603, with a seasonal length of L = 12. The forecast for the next five periods in millions of US$: April 2022 (1111.765), May 2022 (1250.465), June 2022 (1405.016), July 2022 (1447.510), and August 2022 (1452.984).
Forecasting the Export Value of Oil and Gas in Indonesia using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Parkhimenko Vladimir Anatolievich; Rusli Rusli; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 4 No. 5 (2023)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.daengku1040

Abstract

This study aims to utilize the ARIMA method to predict the value of Indonesia's oil and gas exports. As quantitative research, it employs secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia's website. The data spans January 2010 to March 2022 and are presented on a monthly basis. Through the results and discussion, three ARIMA models were established, namely ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,1), and ARIMA (1,1,1). Among these models, the ARIMA (0,1,1) model with an AIC value of 2047.65 was found to be the most suitable for forecasting Indonesia's oil and gas exports. The forecasted values for the next five periods were 1254.124 (April 2022), 1309.678 (May 2022), 1289.236 (June 2022), 1296.758 (July 2022), and 1293.990 (August 2022).
Learning Management System - Schoolearn Based on Moodle for Creating Virtual Classes for SMP Negeri 25 Kab. Barru: Learning Management System - Schoolearn Berbasis Moodle Untuk Pembuatan Kelas Virtual Bagi Guru SMP Negeri 25 Kab. Barru Rusli Rusli; Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Hastuty Musa
Mattawang: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 5 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.mattawang2615

Abstract

The Ipteks for Community activity was carried out at SMP Negeri 25 Barru, Barru Regency, Bojo District, South Sulawesi Province. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) Increase teachers' knowledge in managing LMS-based online learning; (2) Increase teachers' awareness and knowledge about the importance of multimodal learning management; (3) Increase teachers' insights, abilities, and skills in utilizing moodle LMS-based web learning management; and (4) Reduce the number of teachers who do not use blended learning in this 21st century computing era. Partner problems are: (1) the lack of knowledge of junior high school teachers in processing LMS-based online learning; (2) the absence of LMS facilities managed by the school; and (3) the lack of digital-based teacher learning tools even though the current era is a digital era. The method used is counseling and teaching, discussion, and training in collaboration between the implementer and the first partner. This method was carried out to all teachers of SMP Negeri 25 Barru and Mathematics Teachers who joined MGMP Mathematics SMP Barru district, who were trained for 1 day face-to-face and mentored through WA groups and then gradual evaluation and monitoring were carried out periodically for 2 months. The results obtained are: (1) Teachers' knowledge in managing LMS-based online learning is getting better; (2) Teachers' awareness and knowledge about the importance of learning management. (3) Teachers' insights, abilities, and skills in utilizing moodle LMS-based web learning management; and (4) The number of teachers implementing blended learning has increased, (5) teachers have had virtual classes as a complement to conventional classroom-based classes, so that teachers can teach their students without being limited by space and time, meaning that teachers can teach students according to the place and time provided by their students to learn when outside school hours. Abstrak Kegiatan Ipteks bagi Masyarakat dilaksanakan di SMP Negeri 25 Barru Kabupaten Barru Kecamatan Bojo, Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Tujuan kegiatan ini adalah untuk: (1) Meningkatkan pengetahuan guru dalam mengelola pembelajaran online berbasis LMS; (2) Meningkatkan kesadaran dan pengetahuan pada guru tentang pentingnya pengelolaan pembelajaran multimoda; (3) Meningkatkan wawasan, kemampuan, dan keterampilan guru dalam memanfaatkan mengelola web learning berbasis LMS moodle; dan (4) Mengurangi jumlah guru yang tidak menggunakan blended learning di era komputasi abad 21 ini. Permasalahan mitra adalah: (1) Kurangnya pengetahuan guru SMP dalam pengolahan pembelajaran online berbasis LMS; (2) tidak adanya fasilitas LMS yang dikelola oleh pihak sekolah; dan (3) kurangnya perangkat pembelajaran guru berbasis digital padahal era saat ini adalah era digital. Metode yang digunakan adalah penyuluhan dan pengajaran, diskusi, dan pelatihan secara kolaborasi antara pelaksana dengan mitra pertama. Metode ini dilaksanakan kepada semua guru SMP Negeri 25 Barru dan Guru Matematika yang bergabung pada MGMP Matematika SMP kabupaten barru, yang dilatih selama 1 hari tatap muka dan dilakukan pendampingan melalui grup WA dan selanjutnya evaluasi bertahap dan monitoring dilakukan secara berkala selama 2 bulan. Hasil yang diperolah adalah: (1) Pengetahuan guru dalam mengelola pembelajaran online berbasis LMS semakin baik; (2) Kesadaran dan pengetahuan pada guru tentang pentingnya pengelolaan pembelajaran multimoda; (3) Wawasan, kemampuan, dan keterampilan guru dalam memanfaatkan mengelola web learning berbasis LMS moodle; dan (4) Jumlah guru yang melaksanakan pembelajaran secara blended bertambah, (5) guru telah memiliki kelas virtual sebagai pelengkap kelas konvensional berbasis kelas, sehingga guru-guru dapat membelajarkan siswanya tanpa dibatasi lagi oleh ruang dan waktu, artinya guru-guru dapat membelajarkan siswa sesuai dengan tempat dan waktu yang disediakan oleh siswanya untuk belajar saat dilaur jam sekolah.