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All Journal Mattawang: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Quantitative Economics and Management Studies
Rusli Rusli
Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, 90223, Indonesia
Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Public Health Social Sciences

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Journal : Quantitative Economics and Management Studies

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Implementation of Exponential Smoothing in Forecasting the Export Value Price of Oil and Gas in Indonesia Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.; Rusli Rusli; Nachnoer Arss; Alok Kumar Panday
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 4 No. 4 (2023)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.qems1022

Abstract

This study aims to predict the value of oil and gas export prices in Indonesia using exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing was applied because the data analysis revealed that the data consisted of trends and seasonal components. This study uses secondary data obtained from the website of the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia, covering the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia every month from January 2010 to March 2022. The study obtained the exponential smoothing parameters, including α = 0.5153984, β = 0.06410119, and g = 0.7137603, with a seasonal length of L = 12. The forecast for the next five periods in millions of US$: April 2022 (1111.765), May 2022 (1250.465), June 2022 (1405.016), July 2022 (1447.510), and August 2022 (1452.984).
Forecasting the Export Value of Oil and Gas in Indonesia using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Parkhimenko Vladimir Anatolievich; Rusli Rusli; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 4 No. 5 (2023)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.daengku1040

Abstract

This study aims to utilize the ARIMA method to predict the value of Indonesia's oil and gas exports. As quantitative research, it employs secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia's website. The data spans January 2010 to March 2022 and are presented on a monthly basis. Through the results and discussion, three ARIMA models were established, namely ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,1), and ARIMA (1,1,1). Among these models, the ARIMA (0,1,1) model with an AIC value of 2047.65 was found to be the most suitable for forecasting Indonesia's oil and gas exports. The forecasted values for the next five periods were 1254.124 (April 2022), 1309.678 (May 2022), 1289.236 (June 2022), 1296.758 (July 2022), and 1293.990 (August 2022).
Co-Authors Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Alok Kumar Panday Hastuty Musa Nachnoer Arss Parkhimenko Vladimir Anatolievich Rahman, Abdul Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.