Intisari— Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui peramalan dan kebijakan yang tepat untuk produk pestisida Dharmasan 500 ML supaya meredam fluktuasi permintaan dan meminimasi ongkos total persediaan. Metode-metode yang digunakan dalam penulisan tugas akhir ini adalah metode peramalan yaitu moving average, weight moving average, exponential smoothing, trend linear dan metode pengendalian persediaan probabilistik model P lost sales dan back order. Metode trend linear memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 53% dan hasil dari total peramalan bulan Juli 2019 sampai Desember 2019 yaitu sebesar 73.751 unit pestisida. Perhitungan probabilistik model P lost sales menghasilkan safety stock sebesar 10.693 unit pestisida, kapasitas inventori maksimum sebesar 36.043 unit pestisida dan ongkos total persediaan yang dihasilkan sebesar Rp 6.451.599.205 dengan ongkos total per unit Rp 87.478. Perhitungan probabilistik model P back order menghasilkan safety stock sebesar 11.598 unit pestisida, kapasitas inventori maksimum sebesar 39.530 unit pestisida dan ongkos total persediaan yang dihasilkan sebesar Rp6.450.582.729 dengan ongkos total per unit Rp 87.465. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan masukan bagi pihak perusahaan untuk meramalkan permintaan dan melakukan pengendalian persediaan dengan metode probabilistik model P sehingga dapat merencanakan proses dagang pada suatu produk pestisida Dharmasan 500 ML. Abstract— This research aims to determine the correct forecasting for the 500 ML Dharmasan pesticide product in order to reduce demand fluctuations and minimize the total cost of inventory. The methods used in writing this research are forecasting methods, namely moving averages, weight moving averages, exponential smoothing, linear trends and probabilistic inventory control methods of the P model of lost sales and back orders. The linear trend method has a MAPE value of 53% and the result of total forecasting from July 2019 to December 2019 is 73,751 pesticides. The probabilistic calculation of the P model of lost sales results in a safety stock of 10,693 pesticides, a maximum inventory capacity of 36,043 units of pesticides and a total inventory cost of Rp 6,451,599,205 with a total cost of Rp 87,478. The probabilistic calculation of the P back order model resulted in a safety stock of 11,598 pesticides, a maximum inventory capacity of 39,530 pesticides and a total inventory cost of Rp6,450,582,729 with a total cost of Rp87,465. This research is expected to provide input for the company to predict demand and control inventories with the P model probabilistic method so that it can plan the trading process on a 500 ML Dharmasan pesticide product
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