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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

bilp
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Published by Kementerian Perdagangan

ISSN : 19799187 EISSN : 25282751 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.

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Articles 6 Documents

Search results for , issue "Vol 9 No 1 (2015)" : 6 Documents clear

KONVERGENSI PENDAPATAN INDONESIA DAN MITRA REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT (ASEAN+6): APLIKASI METODE CLUSTER FUZZY Azis Muslim
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini mengevaluasi pernyataan bahwa Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) mendorong konvergensi pendapatan. Dengan menggunakan data historis dan menerapkan algoritma fuzzy c-means clustering studi ini menguji konvergensi pendapatan Indonesia dan mitra RTA. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa dalam dua dasawarsa sejak tahun 1993, meskipun dengan adanya RTA, Indonesia mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi pendapatan Indonesia tidak konvergen ke arah pendapatan negara maju. Perdagangan perlu dipakai sebagai sarana alih pengetahuan dan teknologi serta peningkatan “kapabilitas sosial” untuk mendukung percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi. This study evaluates the proposition that Regional Trading Agreements (RTA) endorses convergence of income. Using historical data and fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm, this study analyzes the convergence of Indonesia’s income and RTA partners. The results show that in two decades since 1993, with the presence of RTA, Indonesia has experienced economic growth, yet Indonesia’s income did not converge towards the incomes of developed countries. Trade needs to be utilized as a mean to support knowledge and technology transfer and to increase “social capability” to enhance the acceleration of economic growth.

THE IMPACT OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON INDONESIA-US TRADE PERFORMANCE Septika Tri Ardiyanti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini mengkaji dampak volatilitas nilai tukar riil terhadap kinerja perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-Amerika Serikat (AS), dengan menggunakan data periode Q1:1990 sampai dengan Q3:2012. Studi ini menggunakan dua pendekatan untuk mengukur volatilitas nilai tukar riil, yaitu model Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH-1) dan metode Moving Average Standards Deviation (MASD). Untuk menguji hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel penelitian, digunakan prosedur Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif terhadap impor Indonesia dari AS tetapi tidak mempengaruhi ekspor Indonesia ke AS. Dengan demikian, semakin volatile nilai tukar maka volume impor Indonesia dari AS semakin rendah. Jika Indonesia ingin menjaga neraca perdagangan, maka dianjurkan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan nilai tukar yang mengambang dan terkendali. This sudy examines the impact of real exchange value volatilities on bilateral trade performance between Indonesia and the United States utilizing the data period between Q1:1990 to Q3 2012. This study deploys two approach to measure real exchange values volatilities, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH-1) and Moving Average standard Deviation methods. To test the long terms relationship between variables, it uses Autogressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The result shows that real exchange values volatilities has negative influence on Indonesia’s import from the United States but does not affect the Indonesia’s export to the United States. Hence, the more volatile an exchange value leads to a decrease of Indonesia’s import volume from the United States. If Indonesia attempts to balance its trade, it needs to keep intact monetary policies afloat and controllable.

FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI DAN ESTIMASI TARIF EKUIVALEN NTBs EKSPOR KAYU LAPIS INDONESIA Kartika Rahma Sari; Widyastutik Widyastutik
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor kayu lapis dengan menggunakan Gravity Model, dan menghitung Nilai Tarif Ekuivalen dari Non Tariff Barriers (NTBs) kayu lapis Indonesia di negara tujuan. Berdasarkan pendekatan Gravity Model (Model Gravitasi), aliran perdagangan potensial diperoleh dengan melakukan subtitusi seluruh data kedalam persamaan gravity. Fitted trade flow dari persamaan gravity model dianggap sebagai aliran perdagangan potensial. Perbedaan antara aliran perdagangan aktual dan potensial diindikasikan sebagai tarif ekuivalen dari NTBs. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap ekspor kayu lapis Indonesia yaitu Gross Domestic Product (GDP) riil Indonesia dan negara tujuan, Indek Harga Konsumen (IHK) Indonesia dan negara tujuan, jarak ekonomi, nilai tukar dan krisis keuangan tahun 2010. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan negara Uni Eropa seperti Inggris dan Belgia memiliki rata-rata tarif ekuivalen NTBs paling besar. Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu (SVLK) untuk legalitas produk kayu dapat dijadikan sebagai strategi untuk menghadapi NTBs yang ada di negara tujuan ekspor. This study sets out to analyze factors that influence plywood exports utilizing the Gravity Model and assess the equivalent tariff value of Non Trade Barriers plywood on destination countries. Based on the Gravity Model approach, a potential of flow of trade is obtained through substituting the whole data into gravity equation. Fitted trade flow from the Gravity Model equation is considered as a potential trade flow. The difference between actual and potential trade flow is indicated by the NTB equivalent tariff. The result shows factors that are influential on plywood exports notably the GDPs of Indonesia and destination countries, Consumer Index Price in Indonesia and destination countries, economic distance, exchange value and economic crisis in 2010. In addition, European Union such as England and Belgium have the highest average for NTB equivalent tariff. Verification System of Plywood legality is one alternative that can be deployed as a strategy when confronting NTB on destination countries.

DAMPAK ASEAN-CHINA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (ACFTA) TERHADAP KINERJA PEREKONOMIAN DAN SEKTOR PERTANIAN INDONESIA Nasrudin Nasrudin; Bonar M Sinaga; Dedi Walujadi
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Sektor pertanian Indonesia seharusnya memperoleh dampak positif dari ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Namun demikian, kinerja sektor pertanian belum menunjukkan peningkatan yang berarti ketika sebagian besar komoditas pertanian telah diturunkan tarifnya melalui tahapan ACFTA. Studi ini meneliti dampak ACFTA terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian Indonesia sebelum dan sesudah ACFTA dengan menggunakan deskriptif analisis. Studi ini juga memprediksi kinerja perekonomian dan kinerja sektor pertanian setelah ACFTA diberlakukan secara penuh menggunakan metode ekonometrik dengan persamaan simultan. Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa kinerja sektor pertanian Indonesia tidak lebih baik dibandingkan dengan sebelum implementasi ACFTA, dan diprediksi akan lebih buruk lagi setelah ACFTA diberlakukan sepenuhnya, akibat dari tingginya tekanan kompetisi dan kekakuan produsen domestik. Peningkatan kualitas infrastruktur domestik, pengembangan riset/teknologi serta penerapan regulasi yang mendukung daya saing merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan. The ASEAN-China Frade Trade Agreement should positively influence Indonesia’s agricultural sector performance. Unfortunately, the current agricultural sector performance shows no signs of significant increase despite a decrease of tariffs on most agricultural commodities through ACFTA. This study sets out to examine the overall impact of ACFTA on Indonesian agricultural sector performance prior to and after the implementation of ACFTA through descriptive analysis. This study also predicts the overall economic performance and agricultural sector performance after the full implementation of ACFTA by utilizing econometric method with simultaneous equation. This study finds that the agricultural sector performance does not improve after the implementation of ACFTA and it argues further that it will weaken due to high pressure of competition and the rigidity of domestic producers. Quality improve on domestic infrastructure, research and technology development and regulations which enhance competitiveness are high priority policies to support Indonesia’s agricultural sector performance.

ANALISIS MODA ENTRI PENYEDIA JASA RITEL INDONESIA KE ASEAN: STUDI KASUS PADA ALFAMART Muhammad Fawaiq
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis moda entri jasa ritel Indonesia ke negara-negara ASEAN sesuai dengan komitmen setiap negara di AFAS Paket 8. Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif dan indeks Hoekman. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa Alfamart masuk ke pasar jasa ritel Filipina tanpa memanfaatkan kerjasama AFAS. Hal ini disebabkan Filipina masih menutup jasa ritelnya pada kerjasama tersebut. Moda entri yang digunakan Alfamart untuk masuk ke Filipina adalah waralaba. Suksesnya Alfamart menjadi tolak ukur untuk mengembangkan alternatif moda entri ke negara-negara ASEAN lainnya sesuai dengan hasil pemetaan peluang akses pasar di AFAS Paket 8. Moda Entri yang diusulkan tersebut yaitu: a) Waralaba untuk negara yang belum terbuka (indeks Hoekman 0) yaitu Brunei Darussalam dan Laos, b) Usaha patungan pada negara-negara yang membuka akses pasar dengan pembatasan (indeks Hoekman 0,5) yaitu Malaysia dan Myanmar, dan c) Kepemilikan saham penuh pada negara-negara yang membuka akses pasar tanpa pembatasan (indeks Hoekman 1) yaitu Vietnam, Kamboja, Singapura dan Thailand. Faktor kunci suksesnya ekspor jasa ritel dalam kasus ini adalah mitra bisnis lokal yang membeli master franchise. Untuk itu, pemerintah dapat berperan dalam promosi dan misi dagang ke luar negeri untuk menarik mitra bisnis. The aim of this study is to analyze the mode of entry of Indonesia’s retail supplier into ASEAN countries in accordance with the commitment of each country in AFAS Package 8. The methods deployed in this study are the Hoekman Index and descriptive analysis. The study results show that Alfamart has entered into the Philippine market retail services without utilizing AFAS cooperation. This is due to Philippines’s policy that still close its retail services market on such cooperation. The mode of entry used by Alfamart is franchise service. The success of Alfamart can be a benchmark to develop alternative modes of entry into other ASEAN countries in accordance with market access opportunities mapping of AFAS package 8. The alternatives of entry modes proposed in this study are: a) franchise for countries that does not have open access yet (indeks Hoekman 0) such as Brunei Darussalam and Laos, b) joint ventures in countries which have limited open access (indeks Hoekman 0.5) such as Malaysia and Myanmar , c) and wholly owned subsidiary in countries with full access into the market without restrictions (indeks Hoekman 1) such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore and Thailand. A key factor which contributes to the success of retail service exports is local business partners who purchases master franchise. For that, the government can play a decisive role in promoting trade missions abroad to attract business partners.

PENGARUH PENANAMAN MODAL ASING TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN ASEAN-6 Ari Mulianta Ginting
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perkembangan perdagangan negara-negara ASEAN-6 dan menganalisis pengaruh aliran FDI terhadap neraca perdagangan. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis deskriptif dan regresi data panel. Studi ini menunjukkan perkembangan neraca perdagangan ASEAN-6 dari tahun 2004-2013 secara total surplus. Berdasarkan hasil analisis regresi data panel, terdapat pengaruh yang positif antara pertumbuhan FDI, GDP dan sektor manufaktur dengan pertumbuhan neraca perdagangan di negara ASEAN-6. Sementara itu terdapat pengaruh negatif antara konsumsi domestik, dan nilai tukar riil terhadap pertumbuhan neraca perdagangan. Hasil analisis regresi data panel mengindikasikan pentingnya variabel pertumbuhan FDI. Hal ini mengimplikasikan perlunya negara-negara ASEAN-6 mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk meningkatkan aliran masuk FDI, seperti perbaikan iklim investasi dan pemberian insentif fiskal. This study sets out to explain the development of trade between ASEAN-6 countries and analyze the influence of FDI flow towards the balance of trade. This study utilizes descriptive analysis approach and panel data regression. This study shows the development of the balance of trade for ASEAN-6 trade from 2004-2013 were all surplus. Based on the panel data regression analysis, there is a positive influences of FDI, GDP, and manufacture sector on the balance of trade of ASEAN-6 countries. On the other hand, there is a negative influences of domestic consumption and real exchange on balance of trade. The analysis result from panel data regression indicates the importance of FDI growth variable. This implies a necessity for ASEAN-6 countries to issue policies that could enhance the inflow of FDI, such as improving investment climate and providing fiscal incentive.

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