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Applying of Double Seasonal ARIMA Model for Electrical Power Demand Forecasting at PT. PLN Gresik Indonesia Ismit Mado; Adi Soeprijanto; Suhartono Suhartono
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 8, No 6: December 2018
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (880.972 KB) | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v8i6.pp4892-4901

Abstract

The prediction of the use of electric power is very important to maintain a balance between the supply and demand of electric power in the power generation system. Due to a fluctuating of electrical power demand in the electricity load center, an accurate forecasting method is required to maintain the efficiency and reliability of power generation system continuously. Such conditions greatly affect the dynamic stability of power generation systems. The objective of this research is to propose Double Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (DSARIMA) to predict electricity load. Half hourly load data for of three years period at PT. PLN Gresik Indonesia power plant unit are used as case study. The parameters of DSARIMA model are estimated by using least squares method. The result shows that the best model to predict these data is subset DSARIMA with order ([1,2,7,16,18,35,46],1,[1,3,13,21,27,46])(1,1,1)48(0,0,1)336 with MAPE about 2.06%. Thus, future research could be done by using these predictive results as models of optimal control parameters on the power system side.
P Pelatihan Pengembangan Media Pembelajaran Berbasis Microsoft Visio Drawing Sebagai Upaya Meningkatkan Kreatifitas Dan Ketrampilan Peserta Didik Di Kota Tarakan: - Ismit Mado; Asep Mahmudin; Bahar Mahmud; Ruslim Ruslim; Achmad Budiman
J-Dinamika : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol 6 No 2 (2021): December
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25047/j-dinamika.v6i2.2553

Abstract

Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kreatifitas dan ketrampilan pelbagai jenis diagram, mulai dari diagram sederhana hingga diagram jaringan dan tampilan teks biasa, sampai ke bentuk flowchart. Sasaran pengabdian adalah peserta didik SMA IT Ulul Albab Boarding School Kota Tarakan dan mahasiswa Teknik Elektro Universitas Borneo Tarakan. Kegiatan pengabdian dilaksanakan dengan metode ceramah dan tutorial cara menggunakan program Microsoft Visio disertai contoh. Setelah mengikuti kegiatan ini, peserta memperoleh tambahan wawasan pengetahuan tentang media pembelajaran, khususnya dalam pembuatan diagram dan flowchart dalam menunjang tugas dan laporan. Teknik analisa data yang digunakan untuk mengukur keberhasilan pelatihan ini adalah analisis deskriptif kuantitatif yaitu dengan menganalisis angket yang disebarkan ke peserta setelah dilaksanakan pelatihan. Hasil kegiatan pengabdian menunjukkan keberhasilan dengan indikator kelayakan. Pada aspek kemanfaatan diperoleh pencapaian kegiatan sebesar 79,17 persen, aspek kemanfaatan materi sebesar 81,25 persen, dan aspek keberhasilan pemaparan materi yang diberikan instruktur agar mudah dipahami sebesar 79,17 persen. Hasil uji data secara keseluruhan diperoleh sebesar 79,86 persen yang berarti kegiatan ini layak dilaksanakan dengan rutin untuk materi yang berbeda baik bagi pelajar.  
Best Estimation Of Double Seasonal Pattern Electric Load Parameters Using Least Squares Method Ismit Mado
Journal FORTEI-JEERI Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021): FORTEI-JEERI
Publisher : Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Teknik Elektro Indonesia (FORTEI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46962/forteijeeri.v2i1.11

Abstract

Forecasting is an important tool in planning an effective and efficient use of electrical loads. This paper presents an improvement in parameter estimation from previous studies. The results of previous studies indicate that the DSARIMA model is with MAPE about 2.06 percent. This model produces white noise residuals, but not normally distributed, which is thought to be due to outliers. Data smoothing is done to get the best data pattern. The analysis results show that the AR parameter iteration of the best DSARIMA model that is appropriate for short-term forecasting is with MAPE about 1.56 percent.
Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Model Based DSARIMA Ismit Mado; Antonius Rajagukguk; Aris Triwiyatno; Arif Fadllullah
International Journal of Electrical, Energy and Power System Engineering Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022): International Journal of Electrical, Energy and Power System Engineering (IJEEP
Publisher : Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31258/ijeepse.5.1.6-11

Abstract

Forecasting short-term electrical load is very important so that the quality of the electrical power supplied can be maintained properly. The study was conducted to measure the results of electrical load forecasting based on parameter estimates and the presentation of time series data. It is important to manage stationary data, both in terms of mean and variance. Data presentation is done by determining the value of variance through the Box-Cox transformation method and the mean value based on the ACF and PACF plots. This study considers the pattern of electricity consumption which contains double seasonal patterns. The results of previous studies show the electric power prediction model, the DSARIMA model with a MAPE of 2.06%. The condition of the model used to predict the electrical load still has a tendency not to be normally distributed and it is estimated that there are outliers. Improvements to the AR and MA parameters that meet the standard error tolerance value of 5 percent are increased in this study. The results showed improvement of parameters to predict electrical load with DSARIMA model. The significance of this study was obtained by the MAPE value of 1.56 percent when compared to the actual data.
A Matlab/Simulink Simulation Small Signal Stability of Single-Machine Infinite Bus Using Optimal Control Based on Load Cluster Patterns Ismit Mado; Ruslim; Sugeng Riyanto
International Journal of Electrical, Energy and Power System Engineering Vol. 3 No. 3 (2020): International Journal of Electrical, Energy and Power System Engineering (IJEEP
Publisher : Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31258/ijeepse.3.3.83-88

Abstract

Matlab/Simulink is sophisticated software that has been facilitated by MathWorks Inc. This device is increasingly being used in various fields of research. Likewise, it has great potential in the field of power system simulation. This paper presents a simulation of the optimal performance of the power generation system due to changes in load consumption. Small signal stability due to changes in electrical power usage at the load center is overcome by applying a load cluster pattern. The main objective of this research is to achieve control in a power generation system that is responsive and able to maintain stability in all operating conditions at the load center. Simulation results show the performance of optimal control of the power generation system in each load cluster. Contributions to improve the stability of the power plant system performance by 28.03 percent for frequency (F), 23.03 percent for voltage (V), and 29.5 percent for electric power (P).
Pelatihan Pengenalan Komponen Instalasi Listrik Rumah Tangga dan Perhitungan KWH Meter Abdul Muis Prasetia; Linda sartika; Ismit mado; Achmad Budiman; Abil Huda
AMMA : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 1 No. 08 (2022): AMMA : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat
Publisher : CV. Multi Kreasi Media

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Electricity in people's life is an inseparable part. This can be seen through home electricity needs that reach all levels of society, ranging from people with low economic status to people with high economic status, so it can be said that electricity needs are a primary need. In general, the benefits of electricity for the community in the home include lighting, heating, machinery and others. But on the other hand, electricity is very dangerous for our safety if it is not managed properly. Most people have experienced or felt an electric shock, from those who only felt shocked to those who felt very miserable. Through an analysis of the situation and partner problems, we and the community agreed that there is a need for more understanding about the components of electrical installations and the calculation of KWH meters to reduce the risk of misuse. Based on the results that have been achieved in this community service program and its benefits for the general public. This training is able to provide basic introduction to home installations. This training provides basic introduction to equipment and components, test and measurement systems, and simple installation for homes.
Dampak Keandalan Generator Set 3 Fase terhadap Kontinuitas Suplai Listrik saat Terjadi Pemadaman Mus Muliadi; Ismit Mado; Achmad Budiman; Subarianto Subarianto; Agustinus Rantepadang
Emitor: Jurnal Teknik Elektro Vol 23, No 2: September 2023
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/emitor.v22i2.22728

Abstract

Kebutuhan listrik menjadi masalah yang terjadi setiap tahunnya, terutama pada lingkungan yang sangat membutuhkan suplai listrik yang sangat tinggi seperti perusahaan, industri, perkantoran, dan gedung perkuliahan. Untuk mempertahankan kelangsungan suplai energi listrik jika terjadi gangguan perlu di back up sistem pembangkit. Sebagaimana operasi sistem pembangkit tenaga listrik, perlu juga menjaga kontinuitas dan keandalan pembangkit listrik cadangan ini. Untuk mengetahui tingkat keandalan dan ketersediaan di butuhkan data peralatan, data operasional dan data kerusakan. Penelitian ini menghitung specified operating time (SOT), jumlah total kerusakan dan jumlah genset yang tidak dioperasikan karena keperluan pemeliharaan rutin atau berjadwal, menghitung jam pemeliharaan (S) dan total waktu pemeliharaan masing-masing genset dalam jangka waktu yang telah ditentukan. Dari SOT dikurangi jumlah total waktu pemeliharaan, akan didapat nilai actual operating time (AOT) masing-masing genset. Data SOT dan AOT diperlukan untuk menghitung tingkat ketersediaan genset secara individu dan tingkat ketersediaan genset sebagai catu daya cadangan. Selanjutnya, penelitian ini menghitung mean time between failure (MTBF) masing-masing genset. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada tahun 2022 tingkat keandalan genset PT. Intracawood Manufacturing sebesar 99%. Tingkat keandalan generator set termasuk dalam kelompok jarang mengalami gangguan atau kerusakan (R≥ 90%) dan tingkat rata-rata ketersediaan generator set di tahun 2022 sebesar 98.5%. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa target operasi sistem pembangkit listrik di PT. Intracawood Manufacturing jarang mengalami gangguan