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The Use of SST Anomaly to Predict Seasonal Rainfall during the Second Planting Period in the Tanoh Abee Irrigation Area, Aceh Besar Ahmad Farhan; Yopi Ilhamsyah; . Akhyar
Agromet Vol. 34 No. 2 (2020): DECEMBER 2020
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.34.2.100-109

Irrigation in Tanoh Abee is used for agricultural activities especially during the second planting season during dry season. However, the availability of irrigation water is controlled by total rainfall received. An accurate prediction of rainfall, which traditionally used “keneunong” local wisdom, is urgently required. The objective of the study is to obtain the best predictor of seasonal rainfall based on the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and the monthly lead time of prediction. We employed monthly rainfall from six stations surrounding the study area and combined with principal component analysis to eliminate rainfall autocorrelation. Seasonal rainfall (quarterly average) was calculated from monthly data. The results showed that 1-month lead time strongly correlated to seasonal rainfall in Tanoh Abee (r<-0.7, α=5%) for the second planting period. On other hand, the 2-month and 3-month lead time were useful to predict seasonal rainfall in March-April-May (MAM) only. For April-May-June (AMJ) and May-June-July (MJJ), the correlation between SST anomaly and seasonal rainfall was weak. This finding indicated that the accuracy of prediction decreases with the longer lead time. Based on our analysis, coordinates of 170° E – 175° E; 5° N - 5° S in Niño 4 region have strongly correlated with seasonal rainfall in MAM, AMJ, and MJJ periods. Moreover, further research is necessary to combine any approaches that will improve our prediction skill for another 2- or 3-month lead time.

Ocean-atmosphere analysis of Super Typhoon Songda 2011 over Western North Pacific Ocean Yopi Ilhamsyah; Ahmad Bey; Edvin Aldrian; Junaidi M. Affan
Proceedings of The Annual International Conference, Syiah Kuala University - Life Sciences & Engineering Chapter Vol 3, No 3 (2013): Addendum
Publisher : Syiah Kuala University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (9971.62 KB)

The purpose of the research is to understand the influences of ocean and atmosphere to the formation of Super Typhoon Songda 2011. Daily SST from NOAA AVHRR with spatial resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude was used to study upper oceanic response to the formation of Typhoon Songda. Meanwhile, 3-hourly meteorological data from ARP model with spatial coverage of 0.5° Latitude x 0.5° Longitude cover 201 x 101 points from 25° N - 20° S and 70.0° E – 170.0° E as well as 13 levels of atmospheric columns was also used in the study. The study was also supported by MT-SAT satellite images. The result showed that from early disturbances until reaching mature stage of Typhoon Songda, SST over WNP reached averages temperature of 30˚C. Warm ocean waters continuously produce heat and moisture to the air that are necessary to fuel the genesis, development, formation and intensification of Typhoon Songda. The study also proved that light vertical wind shear (850 – 200 hPa) at about 0 – 5 knot was observed in the early development of Songda at 1800 UTC on May 19th. For the time being, weak vertical wind shear extended to the northwestern of Pacific Ocean. Thus, it made the system to moved toward northwest and reached category Super Typhoon few days later on May 26th. The study also showed the present of Monsoon trough. Monsoon trough occurred where easterly wind met the reversal southerly wind. The region was stretched from southeast to northwest part of WNP Ocean and designated by an extended low pressure area at the surface as well as extended bands of thunderstorms as observed by satellite imagery. On the other hand, potential vorticity shown in the present paper is useful to obtain an understanding of atmospheric motions and development of the upper-level disturbance. Potential vorticity maximum characterize strong vorticity and upward motion. Conversely, weak vorticity with downward motion is demonstrated by mininum potential vorticity.

Contribution of Heat Fluxes on Cyclone Narelle as Simulated by a Mesoscale Model Yopi Ilhamsyah; Frinsa Lindiasfika; Ahmad Bey; Ichsan Setiawan; Rizwan .; Junaidi M. Affan
Aceh International Journal of Science and Technology Vol 2, No 3 (2013): December 2013
Publisher : Graduate Program of Syiah Kuala University

Abstract - Heat fluxes from oceanic evaporation particularly latent heat is important to drive the formation and intensification of Cyclone Narelle. The research was carried out by introducing a mesoscale model, namely Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF). One domain with spatial resolution at 10 km was utilized in the model. The model involved significant physical parameters, e.g., Kain-Fritsch in the cumulus scheme, Yonsei University in the Planetary Boundary Layer scheme, and WRF Single-Moment 3-class in the microphysics scheme. The analysis focused on January 8th to 14th upon all stages of Narelle. The result showed that Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) higher than 26°C was a favorable environment for Cylone Narelle to form. Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes have strong positive correlation with wind speed and SST. It can be concluded that these variables were highly correlated with surface heat flux that further lead to the formation and intensification of Cyclone Narelle in early January 2013 over South Indian Ocean. The tracks and stages of the model are nearly similar to the observations, the differences are found in late phases of Narelle. Keywords: Latent heat; WRF; SST; Sensible heat; Wind speed

A Mesoscale Meteorological Model of Modified Land Cover to the Effect of Urban Heat Island in Jakarta, Indonesia Yopi Ilhamsyah
Aceh International Journal of Science and Technology Vol 1, No 2 (2012): August 2012
Publisher : Graduate Program of Syiah Kuala University

Abstract - A mesoscale meteorological model of modified land cover to the effect of urban heat island (UHI) in Jakarta was done. Although higher temperature in the city has been generally known, factors and issues that result in the increase of temperature particularly nighttime temperature over the city, however, are not well-understood. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is encountering urbanization problems foremost. The increasing demand of housing as well as rapid development of sky crapper building, market places and highway diminishes the vegetation which in turn trap heat in the troposphere throughout the year, particularly during dry season on June-August. The fifth-generation mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) was employed in the study. The model involves medium range forecast planetary boundary layer (MRF PBL) scheme and land surface with two following parameters: i.e. roughness length over land and thermal inertia of land. These two parameters are chosen to enhance the characteristics of land surface. The simulation was carried out for 3 days on August 5-7, 2004 during dry season. The results showed that the simulation of surface temperature done by MM5 modified land cover described a good comparison to that of weather observation data. As a result, the effect of UHI was also well-observed during day-time. In addition, MM5 modified land cover simulation also illustrated a well-development of sea-breeze and country-breeze during mid-day and nighttime, respectively. However, long-term simulation is still required. Thus, daily diurnal cycles of air temperature and their differences can be well-observed in detail.

The utilization of weather and climate information to support marine and fisheries activities Yopi Ilhamsyah
Depik Vol 2, No 3 (2013): December 2013
Publisher : Faculty of Marine and Fisheries, Universitas Syiah Kuala

Abstract. Weather and climate condition are certainly changing. In addition to an early warning of the atmospheric hazard, update information about the current and future status of atmospheric condition is necessary to support public activities. The purpose of this paper is to provide freely online weather and climate information that can be easily accessed by the community. The weather and climate products from an official Indonesian agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics are used in this paper. The agency serves informative and public accessible weather and climate products. In addition, products from foreign public or private meteorological services are also used since they offer valuable spatial and temporal information including early warning of atmospheric hazards that benefit to assist local community in their daily activities. In marine and fisheries sector, it helps to minimize the risk and losses that may be arisen due to the changing of atmospheric condition, so that, the productivity in this sector is expected to increase in the future Keywords: Atmospheric condition; Weather and climate products; Marine and fisheries Abstrak. Kondisi cuaca dan iklim mengalami perubahan dengan pasti. Selain sebagai peringatan dini tentang bahaya atmosfer, informasi mengenai status terkini dan mendatang mengenai kondisi atmosfer adalah penting guna mendukung aktifitas masyarakat. Tujuan dari makalah ini adalah untuk menyajikan informasi pelayanan cuaca dan iklim secara gratis dan online yang dapat dengan mudah diakses oleh masyarakat. Makalah ini menggunakan produk cuaca dan iklim dari Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika Indonesia. Badan ini melayani produk yang informatif dan mudah diakses oleh masyarakat. Selain itu, produk-produk dari layanan meteorologi asing baik milik pemerintah atau swasta juga digunakan dalam makalah ini karena menyediakan informasi spasial dan temporal yang berharga termasuk peringatan dini yang berguna untuk membantu masyarakat lokal dalam melaksanakan kegiatan sehari-hari. Dalam sektor kelautan dan perikanan, informasi ini membantu untuk mengurangi resiko dan kerugian yang mungkin terjadi akibat perubahan kondisi atmosfer, sehingga produktifitas pada sektor ini diharapkan dapat meningkat di masa mendatang. Kata kunci: Kondisi atmosfer; Produk cuaca dan iklim; Kelautan dan perikanan

The utilization of weather and climate information to support marine and fisheries activities Yopi Ilhamsyah
Depik Vol 2, No 3 (2013): December 2013
Publisher : Faculty of Marine and Fisheries, Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13170/depik.2.3.995

Abstract. Weather and climate condition are certainly changing. In addition to an early warning of the atmospheric hazard, update information about the current and future status of atmospheric condition is necessary to support public activities. The purpose of this paper is to provide freely online weather and climate information that can be easily accessed by the community. The weather and climate products from an official Indonesian agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics are used in this paper. The agency serves informative and public accessible weather and climate products. In addition, products from foreign public or private meteorological services are also used since they offer valuable spatial and temporal information including early warning of atmospheric hazards that benefit to assist local community in their daily activities. In marine and fisheries sector, it helps to minimize the risk and losses that may be arisen due to the changing of atmospheric condition, so that, the productivity in this sector is expected to increase in the future Keywords: Atmospheric condition; Weather and climate products; Marine and fisheries Abstrak. Kondisi cuaca dan iklim mengalami perubahan dengan pasti. Selain sebagai peringatan dini tentang bahaya atmosfer, informasi mengenai status terkini dan mendatang mengenai kondisi atmosfer adalah penting guna mendukung aktifitas masyarakat. Tujuan dari makalah ini adalah untuk menyajikan informasi pelayanan cuaca dan iklim secara gratis dan online yang dapat dengan mudah diakses oleh masyarakat. Makalah ini menggunakan produk cuaca dan iklim dari Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika Indonesia. Badan ini melayani produk yang informatif dan mudah diakses oleh masyarakat. Selain itu, produk-produk dari layanan meteorologi asing baik milik pemerintah atau swasta juga digunakan dalam makalah ini karena menyediakan informasi spasial dan temporal yang berharga termasuk peringatan dini yang berguna untuk membantu masyarakat lokal dalam melaksanakan kegiatan sehari-hari. Dalam sektor kelautan dan perikanan, informasi ini membantu untuk mengurangi resiko dan kerugian yang mungkin terjadi akibat perubahan kondisi atmosfer, sehingga produktifitas pada sektor ini diharapkan dapat meningkat di masa mendatang. Kata kunci: Kondisi atmosfer; Produk cuaca dan iklim; Kelautan dan perikanan

The utilization of weather and climate information to support marine and fisheries activities Yopi Ilhamsyah
Depik Vol 2, No 3 (2013): December 2013
Publisher : Faculty of Marine and Fisheries, Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13170/depik.2.3.995

Abstract. Weather and climate condition are certainly changing. In addition to an early warning of the atmospheric hazard, update information about the current and future status of atmospheric condition is necessary to support public activities. The purpose of this paper is to provide freely online weather and climate information that can be easily accessed by the community. The weather and climate products from an official Indonesian agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics are used in this paper. The agency serves informative and public accessible weather and climate products. In addition, products from foreign public or private meteorological services are also used since they offer valuable spatial and temporal information including early warning of atmospheric hazards that benefit to assist local community in their daily activities. In marine and fisheries sector, it helps to minimize the risk and losses that may be arisen due to the changing of atmospheric condition, so that, the productivity in this sector is expected to increase in the future Keywords: Atmospheric condition; Weather and climate products; Marine and fisheries Abstrak. Kondisi cuaca dan iklim mengalami perubahan dengan pasti. Selain sebagai peringatan dini tentang bahaya atmosfer, informasi mengenai status terkini dan mendatang mengenai kondisi atmosfer adalah penting guna mendukung aktifitas masyarakat. Tujuan dari makalah ini adalah untuk menyajikan informasi pelayanan cuaca dan iklim secara gratis dan online yang dapat dengan mudah diakses oleh masyarakat. Makalah ini menggunakan produk cuaca dan iklim dari Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika Indonesia. Badan ini melayani produk yang informatif dan mudah diakses oleh masyarakat. Selain itu, produk-produk dari layanan meteorologi asing baik milik pemerintah atau swasta juga digunakan dalam makalah ini karena menyediakan informasi spasial dan temporal yang berharga termasuk peringatan dini yang berguna untuk membantu masyarakat lokal dalam melaksanakan kegiatan sehari-hari. Dalam sektor kelautan dan perikanan, informasi ini membantu untuk mengurangi resiko dan kerugian yang mungkin terjadi akibat perubahan kondisi atmosfer, sehingga produktifitas pada sektor ini diharapkan dapat meningkat di masa mendatang. Kata kunci: Kondisi atmosfer; Produk cuaca dan iklim; Kelautan dan perikanan

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