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PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENUMPANG ARMADA BUS PT. RAJA PERDANA INTI (RAPI) DENGAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO Wenny Marta Dolok Saribu; Riri Syafitri Lubis; Hendra Cipta
Jurnal Informatika Teknologi dan Sains (Jinteks) Vol 5 No 3 (2023): EDISI 17
Publisher : Program Studi Informatika Universitas Teknologi Sumbawa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51401/jinteks.v5i3.2748

Abstract

Prediction is an attempt to predict or predict something that will happen in the future by utilizing various relevant information at previous times through a scientific method. With the simulation system for predicting the number of passengers, it is hoped that it can predict the number of incoming passengers every day which will assist the company in determining the departure schedule for the PT. Raja Perdana Inti (RAPI). Monte Carlo can be used to find mathematical solutions consisting of many variables that are difficult to solve. The Monte Carlo simulation also applies a prediction simulation application as well as tests the level of accuracy and efficiency generated using this simulation. Based on the research, the prediction of the number of passengers in the bus fleet of PT. Raja Perdana Inti (RAPI) is 18719 people.
PENGARUH PENCEMARAN LINGKUNGAN TERHADAP PENYEBARAN ASMA MENGGUNAKAN METODE MATEMATIKA OPTIMAL KONTROL Panca Taufik Kurahman; Hendra Cipta
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 4 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v4i2.384

Abstract

Journal This focus on problems pollution air. which one pollution air or pollution air this is very dangerous for health human. one _ diseases caused by pollution _ air is disease Asthma is very dangerous for health human. Objective study This For now form optimal control of the deployment model asthma with influence pollution. method math used _ in study This is the optimal control ie For determine control so that can cause a fulfilling process constraint physical, and at the same time minimize or maximize.
PEMODELAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION TERHADAP FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI ANGKA PUTUS SEKOLAH MENENGAH KEJURUAN DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA Sajaratud Dur; Hendra Cipta; Nurul Aprilla Rizki
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 4 No. 3 (2023): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v4i3.422

Abstract

The proportion of kids who are of school age but are no longer enrolled or did not complete their education at a certain level is known as the dropout rate. The majority of dropouts are from vocational high schools. One of the reasons why students leave school is because the causes of dropouts are not accurately identified. This issue persists in the field of education. One issue with geographic heterogeneity is dropout. the development of geographical effects or spatial heterogeneity as a result of variations in each region's features and the connection between their distances. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is one technique for analyzing spatially heterogeneous issues. The fixed kernel's weighting function and the adaptive kernel's weighting function in this research are both gaussian. The goal of this research was to choose the most appropriate model to utilize for the GWR model on the variables influencing the dropout rate for vocational high schools in North Sumatra Province. For each North Sumatra district or city, a distinct model is generated by this study. As compared to the multiple linear regression model with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and the GWR model with fixed kernel weighting function gaussian, the GWR model with the adaptive weighting function of the gaussian kernel is the best model used to model the factors that influence the dropout rate for vocational high schools in North Sumatra Province. This is because it has the smallest AIC value of 321.7397 and the highest of 0.9756.
Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Minyak Kelapa Sawit Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus : PT. Sinar Gunung Sawit Raya) Michael Handrianto; Hendra Cipta
Jurnal Absis: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Vol. 6 No. 1 (2023): Jurnal Absis
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Universitas Pasir Pengaraian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30606/absis.v6i1.2165

Abstract

PT. Sinar Gunung Sawit Raya (SGSR) is a company operating in the palm oil plantation sector, producing palm oil and palm kernels. The company faces the challenge of palm oil production variability related to seasonal fluctuations, particularly in the number of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) from oil palm plantations and the FFB delivered to the mill. Palm oil production is significantly affected by seasons, with production increasing during certain months, such as the rainy season when oil palm fruits are larger and heavier, resulting in higher oil yields. Conversely, during the dry season, the fruits tend to be smaller and lighter, leading to a decline in palm oil production. This research aims to forecast palm oil production for the following two periods using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method with both additive and multiplicative models. Forecasts are conducted manually and with the assistance of Microsoft Excel software. The forecast accuracy is assessed using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The manual forecasts for the additive and multiplicative models yielded error rates of 2.11% and 11.56%, respectively. While these forecasts provide valuable insights, it should be noted that other factors may also influence palm oil production outcomes. Therefore, these forecasting results can assist the company in formulating policies to enhance palm oil production.
Analisis Spasial dan Temporal Data Kejadian Bencana Banjir dengan Model Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA) Hanifa Mardiatun Nasution; Hendra Cipta
Jurnal Absis: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Vol. 6 No. 1 (2023): Jurnal Absis
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Universitas Pasir Pengaraian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30606/absis.v6i1.2171

Abstract

The Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA) is a model used to model time series data that exhibits spatial dependencies among its locations as well as temporal dependencies. GSTARIMA is applied in various economic contexts, including analyzing exports and imports, exchange rates, production, inflation, and rainfall. This research aims to develop the best GSTARIMA model and utilize it to forecast rainfall in the Medan Belawan District. The GSTARIMA model combines temporal and geographical aspects by adjusting parameters for each observed location. The data used in this study consists of monthly rainfall data for the Medan Belawan District, obtained from the Maritime Class II Meteorological Station in Belawan, spanning from January 2020 to December 2022. The identification of Autoregressive (AR) and Moving Average (MA) orders was performed through the analysis of the Autocorrelation Matrix (MACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Matrix (MPACF). This study employed a spatial order of 1, along with an inverse distance weighting matrix and cross-correlation normalization. Parameter estimation used the generalized least squares (GLS) method. The research results indicate that the GSTARIMA model (2,0,0) with the inverse distance weighting matrix achieved the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) rate, specifically at 1.0170. Thus, this model is considered the best for forecasting rainfall in the Medan Belawan District.
Pengklasifikasian Variabel-Variabel Yang Mempengaruhi Terjadinya Stunting di Kota Medan dengan Metode Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) Fibri Rakhmawati; Mei Yunina Arianti; Rina Widyasari; Hendra Cipta
Asimetris: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Sains Vol. 4 No. 2 (2023): Asimetris: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Sains
Publisher : Pendidikan Matematika Universitas Almuslim

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah pengklasifikasian dan menganalisis faktor mana yang sangat berepengaruh terhadap kejadian stunting di Kota Medan menggunakan metode CHAID. Metode CHAID ini bekerja dengan mengidentifikasi hubungan antara variabel dependen dan independen lalu menggunakan hubungan ini untuk mengklasifikasikan sampel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh pada kejadian stunting terhadap bayi usia 24-59 bulan di Kota Medan berdasarkan hasil analisis metode CHAID adalah Riwayat Pemerian ASI Eksklusif dan Sanitasi. Dari hasil analisis metode CHAID diperoleh tiga pengklasifikasian berbeda yaitu: (1) Bayi usia 24-59 bulan yang mengalami stunting sangat pendek adalah bayi dengan keadaan Riwayat Pemberian ASI Eksklusif tidak diberikan sebesar 54% dan sanitasi tidak layak sebesar 66,7%. (2) Bayi usia 24-59 bulan yang mengalami stunting adalah bayi dengan keadaan Riwayat Pemberian ASI Eksklusif tidak diberikan sebesar 54% dan sanitasi layak sebesar 25% dan (3) Bayi usia 24-59 bulan yang tidak mengalami stunting sangat pendek adalah bayi dengan keadaan Riwayat Pemberian ASI Eksklusif diberikan 23%. Sehingga hasil temuan penelitian ini diharapkan memberikan masukan kepada pihak terkait dalam mengantisipasi terjadinya kasus stunting dengan mengklasifikasi factor-faktor mana saja yang sangat mempengaruhi kasus stunting ini.  
The Effectiveness of Clarke Wright and Sequential Insertion Algorithm in Distribution Routing Aqua Ayu Hariati; Nurul Huda Prasetya; Hendra Cipta
Quadratic: Journal of Innovation and Technology in Mathematics and Mathematics Education Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021): April 2021
Publisher : Pusat Studi Pengembangan Pembelajaran Matematika Sekolah UIN Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta Jl. Marsda Adisucipto, Yogyakarta 55281

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14421/quadratic.2021.011-03

Abstract

With the Multiple Trips condition, the results obtained for the optimal distance route that starts and stops at PT. Tirta Investama Medan with Clarke Wright Algorithm at t = 1 is 22 km and at t = t + 1 is 15.2 km. While the optimal travel distance route with the Sequential Insertion Algorithm at t = 1 is 15.05 km, and at t = t + 1 is 22.9 km. Clarke Wright Algorithm looks for an optimal solution to get the best route, while Sequential Insertion Algorithm has an excess in the election of a customer by considering customer position with available insertion track location until all customer have been assigned. The Clarke Wright Algorithm obtained a total distance of 37.2 km. In comparison, the Sequential Insertion Algorithm solution obtained a total distance of 37.95 km. It can be concluded that the route formed using the Clarke Wright Algorithm in this case is more effective than using the Sequential Insertion Algorithm.
Co-Authors Abimayu, Satria Ali Ikhwan Anjas Fernando Aulia Lia Yusharsah Ayu Annisa Suratna Ayu Hariati Bayu Teza Syahputra Chairani Chairani Chairani, Denita Chairina Chairina Desi Ratna Sari Dian Maya Sari Elsyah Suhadiyah Endah Nurfebriyanti Esto Fanny Munthe Fani Darmawan Putra Fauzah Umami Hamidah Nasution Hanifa Mardiatun Nasution Hari Kurniawan Hasni Indah Sari Hasugian, Abdul Halim Hasyim Hawari Lubis Hasyim Lubis Henny May Sarah Ika Silvia Ramadani Ilham Syaputra Indra Jaya Ismail Husein, Ismail Jeni Yulinda Khairun Nisa Lia Lestari Lubis, Riri Syafitri Maimunah Rahmadani Maulidya Khairani May Fitriana Hasibuan Mei Yunina Arianti Michael Handrianto Muhammad Fathoni Mutiah Nasution Nila Sari Nur Indah Sari Nurhasanah Nurhasanah Nurma Indah Sari Nurma Sari Nurul Aprilla Rizki Nurul Huda Prasetya Paisal Sirait Panca Taufik Kurahman Poppy Andriani Prasetya, Nurul Huda Putri Nopriani Sianipar Radita Fadillah Rahmat Darmawan Rakhmawati, Fibri Regina Kuswoyo Reni Puspita Ricka Afriani Rima Aprilia Rima Aprilia Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Riri S Lubis Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur, Sajaratud Salsabillah Hazizah Sarif Muda Pasaribu Shelly Kilan Cahaya Pulungan Silvia Harleni Siti Zunaida Nasution Sri Ulfa Rahayu Surayya Aulia Susi Susanti Komariah Uci Rahmadani Uni Agustin Wenny Marta Dolok Saribu Widyasari, Rina Winda Risfani Nst Zepri Johanda