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Journal : Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Review

The Threshold of External Debt Ratio in Indonesia Siti Karimah; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Journal of Business and Political Economy : Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Vol. 2 No. 1 (2020): Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Ec
Publisher : INDEF - Institute for Development of Economics and Finance

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (192.368 KB) | DOI: 10.46851/32

Abstract

Since New Order1 regime, external debt has become one of the reliable capital sources in Indonesia. In 2017, the World Bank was incorporating Indonesia to the top ten middle-income country borrowers so it is necessary to analyze the effect of external debt ratio on economic growth. Using the debt Laffer curve theory, the authors determine the threshold of the external debt ratio. The method of analysis is quadratic regression. The research results indicate that there exists a non-linear relationship between the external debt ratio and economic growth in Indonesia. On the other hand, research results have found the threshold of external debt ratio in Indonesia is 48 per cent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The external debt ratio less than 48 per cent of GDP does not affect economic growth, but it will have a negative effect on economic growth when the ratio is more than 48 per cent of GDP. Keywords: external debt ratio, threshold, quadratic regression
The Impact of Covid-19 on Gold Price in Indonesia Using ARIMA Intervention Dyah Makutaning Dewi; Alvian Ferrandy; Muhammad Zaky Nafi'; Nasrudin
Journal of Business and Political Economy : Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Vol. 2 No. 2 (2020): Journal of Business and Political Economy
Publisher : INDEF - Institute for Development of Economics and Finance

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (438.693 KB) | DOI: 10.46851/68

Abstract

On March 2, 2020, Indonesia experienced first case of Covid 19. As a result, investors should be careful in investing so that investors choose gold in investing. Purpose of this study is analyze impact of Covid-19 on gold price in Indonesia. Research method uses ARIMA intervention. The results showed that the impact of Covid-19 on gold price in Indonesia is gradual temporary, meaning the intervention to influence the movement of gold price gradually and temporarily. Intervention of Covid-19 cases against gold price in Indonesia began to be felt after two weeks of the first case of Covid-19 in Indonesia which demonstrated by the increase in the gold price out of ordinary since the 16th day. On the 19th day after intervention, the gold price in Indonesia decreased. Furthermore, the gold price in Indonesia is again rising and expected to increase. The forecast results of the next 31 days show gold price in Indonesia has always increased. When Covid-19 has not been able to be resolved so that the confirmed positive case of Covid-19 continues to increase, gold investment is one of the safe investments. However, investors should pay attention to gold price movements if they want to invest in gold. Keywords: ARIMA Intervention, Covid-19, Gold Price JEL Classification: E22, H54, O16