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All Journal INVENTORY : Industrial Vocational E-Journal On Agroindustry Warta AKAB JPM-AKA
Ika Widiana
Politeknik AKA Bogor
Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Control & Systems Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Social Sciences

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Journal : INVENTORY : Industrial Vocational E-Journal On Agroindustry

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Komparasi Metode Regresi Linier, Exponential Smoothing dan ARIMA Pada Peramalan Volume Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit di Indonesia Trisna Yuniarti; Juli Astuti; Irfan Rusmar; Ika Widiana; Fajar Ciputra Daeng Bani
INVENTORY: Industrial Vocational E-Journal On Agroindustry Vol 3, No 1 (2022): Published in June 2022
Publisher : Politeknik ATI Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52759/inventory.v3i1.74

Abstract

This study aims to compare several methods to get the best methods on forecasting the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. In addition, this study also aims to estimate the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports for the next five years. Some of the forecasting methods used in this study are linear regression, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA. The data used is historical data on the volume of palm oil exports from 1981 to 2020. The results of calculations and analysis show that the exponential smoothing model of the damped trend method produces the smallest error value compared to other methods, the MAD value is 860,353, the MSE value is 1,707,738,707,222, the RSME value is 1,306,805, and the MAPE value is 20.6%. This method has chosen to be the best forecasting method for the next five years. The forecast results obtained that the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports for the next five years are28.864.223,31 tons, 28.967.062,92 tons, 29.064.976,80 tons, 29.158.200,89 tons, and 29.246.959,81 tons.
Co-Authors Ahmad Dzaky Mualim Anak Agung Ketut Sudharmawan Anita Herawati Permana Anom Cahyotomo Arif Rahman David Yudianto Dewi Puji Ningsih Fajar Ciputra Daeng Bani Gina Maulia Halimah Az Zahro Indah Aulia Nurhalisa Irfan Rusmar Juli Astuti Kartini Afriani Kurnia Widhi Astuti Mohammad Dzikril Hakim Muhammad Ryan Pratama Nabil Sabah Jauhar Puspita Ade Agustin Putri Birru P. Pradanov Rachmawati Dwi Estuningsih Reva Kalysta Trisna Yuniarti