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Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
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KAJIAN MODEL PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DI BANDARA KUALANAMU MEDAN TANPA DAN DENGAN KOVARIAT Isti Rochayati; Utami Dyah Syafitri; I Made Sumertajaya; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.171

Abstract

Foreign tourist arrivals could be considered as time series data. Modelling these data could make use of internal and external factors. The techniques employed here to model these time series data are SARIMA, SARIMAX, VARIMA, and VARIMAX. SARIMA is a model for seasonal data and VARIMA is a model for multivariate time series data. If some explanatory variables are incorporated and have significant influence on the response, the former two models become SARIMAX and VARIMAX respectively. Three stages of creating the model are model identification, parameter estimation, and model diagnostics. The variables used in this study were foreign tourist visits, international passenger arrivals, inflation rates, currency exchange rates, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) over the period of 2010-2017. All four models fulfill their model assumptions and therefore could be applied. The best model of foreign tourist arrivals was VARIMA with the value of MAPE testing data = 6.123.
ANALISIS AMMI DENGAN RESPON GABUNGAN PADA UJI STABILITAS TANAMAN PADI GOGO DI KABUPATEN PACITAN Abdullah Ilman Fahmi; Rahma Anisa; Anang Kurnia; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.173

Abstract

Gogo rice is one of the results of various rice cultivation development by planting in a dry land. Gogo rice is expected to give yield a better production of paddy in dry rice fields. The varieties Inpago 7, Inpago 8, Inpago 8 IPB, Inpago 9, Inpago 10, Situ Gintung, Situ Patenggang, Situ Bagendit, Gajah Mungkur, Slengreng TG, Slegreng GK, Srijaya, Towuti, Merah Wangi, dan Inpari 24 were used in this study. This study aims to identify the Gogo rice varieties that are stable and superior in six Pacitan Garden Experimental Plant locations based on a combined response using the AMMI method. The AMMI analysis combines an additive variety analysis as the main effects of treatment with multiple principle component analysis by bilinier modeling for interaction effect. This study used two combined responses, which described the plant productivity and the resistancy. The result of this study explained that some varieties, Inpago 8, Inpago 10, and Situ Patenggang, were stable varieties in all planting location based on the combined responses. According to productivity stability and plant resistancy superior gogo rice variety is Inpago 8 and Inpago 10.
DETERMINAN INISIASI MENYUSU DINI (IMD) WANITA USIA 15-49 TAHUN DI INDONESIA (ANALISIS DATA SDKI 2012) Nur Aini; Budyanra Budyanra; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.176

Abstract

Early Breastfeeding Initiation (EBI) is one of the most effective ways to reduce neonatal mortality in Indonesia. Implementation of EBI in Indonesia in 2012 is still in the "adequate" category according to World Health Organization (WHO) and is in "less" category according to International Baby Food Action Network (IBFAN). Implementation of EBI in Indonesia is still under other ASEAN Association countries such as Philippines, Cambodia and Myanmar. The low application of the EBI is thought to be influenced by maternal factors as well as environmental factors. This study aims to determine the factors that affect the status of EBI in Indonesia and see a general description of the status of EBI based on its characteristics. The data used are raw data of IDHS 2012 and analyzed using logistic regression model of proportional partial ordinal odds. The results obtained are the variables of antenatal care visit, maternal working status, place of residence, place of delivery, method of delivery, and parity are determinant of EBI status in Indonesia.
DETERMINAN PEMILIHAN MODA TRANSPORTASI PEKERJA KOMUTER JABODEBATEK DENGAN MODEL REGRESI LOGISTIK MULTINOMIAL MULTILEVEL Hernanto Adwiluvito; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.184

Abstract

The BPS noted that commuters in Jabodetabek had increased by 400 thousand people from 2001 to 2014. The BPS also recorded that around 81,3% of the commuters in Jabodetabek were workers. A growing number of commuter workers in Jabodetabek makes transportation is very important to support the connection of suburban area and workplace in Jakarta. The result showed that 73% of the commuter workers used private transportation, 19% used ground public transportation and the rest of commuter workers used train. This research use Jabodetabek Commuter Survey 2014 as the main source data to shed light on how socioeconomic factors and spatial attributes affect the selection of a primary mode of transportation for commuter workers. Using multilevel multinomial logistic regression, the result confirm that the age, sex, marital status, ownership of vehicle, travel distance and time have a significant effect in explaining train choice. Furthermore, the result also showed that the age, sex, marital status, income, ownership of vehicle, travel distance and cost are found to be significant in explaining ground public transportation choice.
KAJIAN EFEK SPASIAL KASUS DIFTERI DENGAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION (GWNBR) Diva Arum Mustika; Rani Nooraeni; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.185

Abstract

Diphtheria is an infectious disease caused by the Corynebacterium diphtheriae bacteria. Indonesia is the country with the most cases of diphtheria in Southeast Asia and ranks third in the world. In 2016, cases of diphtheria increased by 65 percent and became Extraordinary Events (KLB) in Indonesia, even though during 2013 to 2015 the number of cases of diphtheria has decreased. The province that has the highest number of diphtheria cases in Indonesia in 2016 is East Java. Diphtheria is centered and spread in certain districts / cities in East Java Province so that there are indications of spatial effects in the spread of diphtheria. Because data on the number of diphtheria cases overdispersed and indicated spatial effects in its spread, the main method used in this study was Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). This method will be compared with other alternative methods namely Poisson regression method and Negative Binomial Regression to get the best modeling. Based on the AIC value of each model it can be concluded that the best method for modeling the number of diphtheria cases is GWNBR. The modeling results with GWNBR show that there is indeed a spatial influence on the number of diphtheria cases and risk factors in East Java Province in 2016. The percentage of DPT-HB3 / DPT-HB-Hib3 immunization coverage is not significant in all observation areas, while the percentage of drug and vaccine availability is significant at entire observation area.
DETERMINAN TRANSAKSI NONTUNAI DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MECHANISM (ECM) MODEL Zulfa Nur Fajri Ramadhani; Siskarossa Ika Oktora; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.190

Abstract

Consumption is an activity that must be done by everyone. In order to consume something, a transaction is needed to get the goods or services desired. One kind of transaction that is used by many people nowadays is non-cash transaction. Since Bank Indonesia established Gerakan Nasional Non Tunai (GNNT) in August 2014, the value of non-cash transactions exceeds the value of cash transactions. It happenned because people prefer non-cash to cash transaction which is easier, safer, more practical, and more economical. Besides, an increase in non-cash transactions can also be influenced by other factors. Therefore, a study is conducted to analyze the determinants of non-cash transactions from the macro side by using Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The data used in this study are secondary data from Bank Indonesia and Badan Pusat Statistik with monthly period from January 2010 until December 2017. The results showed that in the long run, private savings and BI rate have positive effect on non-cash transactions. In the short run, private savings and money supply have positive effect on non-cash transactions. While inflation does not affect non-cash transactions, both in the short and long run.
CONSTRUCTING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER-EXPOSURE LIKELIHOOD INDEX USING SHAPLEY-VALUE REGRESSION APPROACH Rahma Anisa; Bagus Sartono; Pika Silvianti; Aam Alamudi; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.198

Abstract

Indonesia is very prone to earthquake disaster because it is located in the Pacific ring of fire. Therefore, a reference level of earthquake disaster exposure likelihood events in Indonesia is needed in order to increase people's awareness about the risks. This study aims to determine the index that describes the risk of possible future earthquake disaster. As initial research, this study is focus on earthquake disasters in Java region, as it has the largest population in Indonesia. Several indicators that are related to the severity of earthquake disaster impact, were used in this study. The weights of each indicators were determined by considering its shapley-value, thus all indicators gave equal contribution to the proposed index. The results showed that shapley-value approach can be utilized to construct index with equal contribution of each indicators. In general, the resulted index had similar pattern with the number of damaged houses in each districts.
THE BETA TRANSMUTED POWER DISTRIBUTION: PROPERTIES AND APPLICATION Abdelhakim Alabid; Ahmed Ali Hurairah; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.204

Abstract

In this this paper, we define and study a new generalization of the Power distribution and the quadratic rank transmutation map (QRTM) in order to generate a flexible family of probability distribution taking Power distribution as the base distribution. The new distribution is called the beta transmuted Power (BTP) distribution. Some properties of the distribution such as moments, quantiles, mean deviation and order statistics are derived. The method of maximum likelihood is proposed to estimate the model parameters. The asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters are also obtained based on asymptotic variance-covariance matrix. A simulation study is conducted to study the performance of the estimators. The importance and flexibility of the new model is proved empirically using a real data set.
Co-Authors Aam Alamudi Abdelhakim Alabid Abdullah Ilman Fahmi Ahmed Ali Hurairah Anang Kurnia Bagus Sartono Budyanra Budyanra Diva Arum Mustika Hernanto Adwiluvito I Made Sumertajaya Isti Rochayati Nooraeni, Rani Nur Aini Pika Silvianti Rahma Anisa Siskarossa Ika Oktora Utami Dyah Syafitri Zulfa Nur Fajri Ramadhani