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All Journal Epsilon: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Terapan Jurnal Fisika FLUX Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Desimal: Jurnal Matematika MEDIA BINA ILMIAH BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Tropical Wetland Journal Bubungan Tinggi: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Abdimas Prakasa Dakara
Yuni Yulida
Program Studi Matematika FMIPA Universitas Lambung Mangkurat
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : MEDIA BINA ILMIAH

 1 
PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENDUDUK KALIMANTAN SELATAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE NONLINEAR LEAST-SQUARES Karim, Muhammad Ahsar; Yulida, Yuni
MEDIA BINA ILMIAH Vol 14, No 5: Desember 2019
Publisher : BINA PATRIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (403.868 KB) | DOI: 10.33758/mbi.v14i5.390

Abstract

Dalam tulisan ini disajikan prediksi jumlah penduduk Kalimantan Selatan menggunakan model pertumbuhan logistik. Untuk memprediksi jumlah penduduk Kalimantan Selatan tersebut digunakan Metode Nonlinear Least-Squares untuk mengestimasi parameter-parameter yang mempengaruhi model. Pada model pertumbuhan logistik terdapat dua parameter yang mempengaruhi yaitu tingkat pertumbuhan dan daya tampung (Carrying Capacity). Penelitian ini dilakukan dalam tiga tahapan metode. Pertama, menentukan solusi model, kedua mengestimasi parameter tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk dan daya tampung penduduk Kalimantan Selatan dengan cara meminimumkan fungsi error yaitu antara data jumlah penduduk dan solusi model menggunakan Metode Nonlinear Least Squares. Ketiga melakukan prediksi jumlah penduduk Kalimantan Selatan untuk tahun-tahun mendatang. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini diperoleh  parameter hasil estimasi yaitu tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk Kalimantan Selatan sebesar 0,14055 per tahun dan daya tampung penduduk Kalimantan Selatan adalah 8.521.817 jiwa. Selanjutnya, disajikan prediksi jumlah penduduk Kalimantan Selatan untuk tahun-tahun mendatang menggunakan hasil estimasi parameter-parameter yang telah diperoleh. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan setiap tahun terjadi peningkatan jumlah penduduk dan peningkatan tersebut dari waktu kewaktu mendekati  daya tampung penduduk Kalimantan Selatan.
MODEL MATEMATIKA SEIRD (SUSCEPTIBLE, EXPOSED, INFECTED, RECOVERED, DAN DEATH) UNTUK PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT ISPA Yulida, Yuni; Karim, Muhammad Ahsar
MEDIA BINA ILMIAH Vol 15, No 7: Februari 2021
Publisher : BINA PATRIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33758/mbi.v15i7.1037

Abstract

In the last few decades, the Upper Respiratory Tract Infection has become one of the three leading causes of death and disability in the world, both in developing countries and in developed countries. In Indonesia, the trend of this disease continues to increase throughout 2016 - 2019 and in children it has caused 1 - 4 children under five to die every hour. In this study, the spread of this disease was modeled mathematically by using the SEIRD Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Death). Then, the equilibrium points of the model are determined, stability analysis is performed, and the model solution is determined using the Runge Kutta Method
ANALISIS KESTABILAN DAN SENSITIVITAS PADA MODEL MATEMATIKA SEIRD DARI PENYEBARAN COVID-19: STUDI KASUS DI KALIMANTAN SELATAN Karim, Muhammad Ahsar; Yulida, Yuni
MEDIA BINA ILMIAH Vol 16, No 5: Desember 2021
Publisher : BINA PATRIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33758/mbi.v16i5.1478

Abstract

The cases of Covid-19 that occurred in South Kalimantan were classified into 5 groups, namely suspected, treated, recovered, deaths, and healthy population who were susceptible for being infected with Covid-19. The dynamics of changes in the number of cases in each group can be studied mathematically through epidemiological mathematical modeling. In this study, the SEIRD Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Deaths) was formed to describe the dynamics of changing the number of Covid-19 cases in South Kalimantan. In this model, stability analysis and formulation of indicators for the controllability of the spread of Covid-19 are given, known as the Basic Reproduction Number. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of the parameters contained in the Basic Reproduction Number is given to determine the priority efforts that can be made to suppress the spread of Covid-19 in South Kalimantan.
ANALISA PELAKSANAAN NEW NORMAL DI KALIMANTAN SELATAN MELALUI MODEL MATEMATIKA SIRD Muhammad Ahsar Karim; Yuni Yulida
MEDIA BINA ILMIAH Vol 14, No 12: Juli 2020
Publisher : BINA PATRIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33758/mbi.v14i12.666

Abstract

Mathematical models of epidemiology are very useful in studying the interrelationships among various epidemiological cases, conducting evaluations of efforts to deal with these cases, and preparing preventive actions and control of health problems in a population. One of the most popular models is SIR Model (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered). Along with the rapid development in the field of epidemiology, the SIR Model has also undergone many modifications, one of which is the SIRD Model. The SIRD Model is modified for cases that explicitly separate Recovered and Deaths subpopulations. Since the positive case of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) was first confirmed in the Province of South Borneo on March 22, 2020, this outbreak has continued to increase significantly until the end of May 2020, exactly where the Large-scale Social Restrictions simultaneously ended throughout the region. The end of this restriction is the starting point for the start of 'New Normal' in South Kalimantan, which is called the New Life Order in the midst of the Covid-19 outbreak. In this study, an analysis was conducted to measure the implementation of the New Normal in South Borneo, as part of the evaluation material for the community and the local government on the implementation of the New Normal. Analysis was conducted using the SIRD Model and the data of Covid-19 in South Borneo in the period June 16 to July 17, 2020. The data showed an increase in the Attack Rate, which illustrates that the positive cases of Covid-19 in South Borneo are still experiencing an increase. The data also shows an increase in the Case Recovery Rate and a decrease in the Case Fatality Rate, which indicates that efforts to accelerate the handling of Covid-19 cases in South Borneo have given positive results. On the other hand, the parameter estimation process of the SIRD Model produces a Basic Reproduction Number of 2 and an Effective Reproductive Number of 1.82. Both of these numbers indicate that the transmission of Covid-19 in South Borneo is still out of control and it is estimated that the high transmission will still occur until the end of August 2020
PEMODELAN MATEMATIKA PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DI PROVINSI KALIMANTAN SELATAN Yuni Yulida; Muhammad Ahsar Karim
MEDIA BINA ILMIAH Vol 14, No 10: Mei 2020
Publisher : BINA PATRIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (374.648 KB) | DOI: 10.33758/mbi.v14i10.572

Abstract

Mathematical modeling in epidemiology has a very important role in the study of the dynamics of an epidemic. The outbreak of Covid-19, which is currently being spread widely in the world requires in-depth study, starting from the search for sources, prediction of spread patterns, to strategies for handling this virus outbreak. Mathematical modeling can be applied to support various fields of the study. In this paper, we discuss mathematical modeling of the spread of Covid-19 by providing analysis and predictions based on data from the case of Covid-19 in South Kalimantan Province. This study was conducted by estimating parameters of the SIR Model, which is accommodates the death cases in the data, supported by several methods, namely Runge Kutta Method and Nonlinear Least Squares Method. Our analysis to the data and the model yields a Basic Reproduction Number , which means that one individual infected by Covid-19 can produce three new infected individuals. Whereas our prediction shows that infected cases can reach to 37.82% and cases of death can reach to 0.49% of the population who remained in normal activities during the PSBB. The peaks of this case are estimated to occur in the 2nd week of August to the 1st week of October 2020. The fewer people who have normal activities, then the spread of Covid-19 is predicted to pass faster with smaller cases of infection and death. Conversely, the more people who have normal activities, then the spread of Covid-19 in South Kalimantan can take longer and take a higher number of victims.
Co-Authors Aji Wiratama Akhmad Yusuf Alya Hanifah Arif Ana Rizki Mahmudah Andi Tri Wardana Annisa Rahayu Arie Wijaya Audinta Sakti Firmansyah Azkia Khairal Jamil Azkia Khairal Jamil Azkia Khairal Jamil Bizaini Bizaini DEWI ANGGRAINI Dewi Sri Susanti Edy Sarwo Agus Wibowo Faisal Faisal Faisal Faisal Faisal Faisal Farohatin Na'imah Firman Nurrobi Fitri Nor Annisa Fitriani Fitriani Friska Erlina Gabriel Henokh Gultom Gian Septiansyah Gian Septiansyah Gusti Muhammad Rosyadi Haidir Ahsana Helfa Oktafia Afisha Herlyn Basrina Lestia, Aprida Siska Miftahul Jannah Miftahul Jannah Muhammad Afief Balya Muhammad Ahsar Karim Muhammad Ahsar Karim Muhammad Ahsar Karim Muhammad Mahfuzh Shiddiq Muhammad Mahfuzh Shiddiq Mursyidah Pratiwi Mustika Khadijah Na'imah Hijriati Noor Fakhriani Nor Hidayati Nurul huda Pardi Affandi Rahayu, Annisa Rahmi Hidayati Raihan Nooriman Rezky Putri Rahayu Riska Fitria Riska Fitria Rizky Purnama Wulandari Sinar Ismaya Sofia Faridatun Nisa Thresye Thresye Tri Puspa Lestari Vika Astuti Wuri Setyana Sari Yogi Apriyanto