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Richards Curve Implementation For Prediction of Covid-19 Spread in Maluku Province Ondi, Nanang; Rumlawang, Francis Yunito; Lesnussa, Yopi Andry
CAUCHY Vol 7, No 2 (2022): CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi (May 2022) (Issue in Progress)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v7i2.13323

Abstract

COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) was first reported in Wuhan city, China at the end of December 2019 and spread to Indonesia specifically in Maluku Province at the end of March 2020. This study aims to predict the spread of COVID-19 cases in Maluku province as well as explore the phases of its spread using the Richards Curve which is an extension of the Logistic Curve. After estimating the parameters of the Richards Function with cumulative case data of COVID-19 in Maluku province from March 23 to November 4, 2020, the results of the spread of COVID-19 cases in Maluku province reached a turning point on October 22, 2020, and ended on May 25, 2023, with a total cumulative case of 9,451 cases
PEMODELAN PENGARUH IKLIM TERHADAP ANGKA KEJADIAN DEMAM BERDARAH DI KOTA AMBON MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI GENERALIZED POISSON Ferry Kondo Lembang; Eysye Alchi Nara; Francis Yunito Rumlawang; Mozart Winston Talakua
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 3 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (752.46 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i3.474

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is one of the dreaded diseases of the transition season. DHF is a disease found in tropical and subtropical regions that caused by Dengue virus which is transmitted through Aedes mosquitoes. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) data, it is stated that Indonesia is the country with the highest dengue fever case in Southeast Asia. The incidence of dengue fever in Indonesia tends to increase in the middle of the rainy season, and one of the regions in Indonesia with the high level of rainfall intensity is Ambon City. DHF cases in Ambon city increase from year to year due to the last five years the intensity of rainfall is very high. Therefore, this study aims to identify climate factors that affect the incidence of DHF in Ambon City by using Generalized Poisson Regression method. Generalized Poisson Regression is appropriately considered to analyze the causing factors DHF incidence because the rating case of DHF is usually the count data that following the Poisson distribution. The results showed that the smallest AIC value for the Generalized Poisson Regression model was 75.842 with significant variables is DHF in the city of Ambon were one month earlier, air humidity, rainfall, and air humidity two months earlier.
Identification of The Phases of The Spread of Covid-19 in Maluku Province with Richards Curve Nanang Ondi; Yopi Andry Lesnussa; Francis Yunito Rumlawang
(IJCSAM) International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics Vol 7, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j24775401.v7i2.10925

Abstract

Richards Curve is an extension of the Logistics Curve which was first discovered in 1959 and is a type of sigmoid curve where in the sigmoid curve there are 3 growth phases, namely the logarithmic phase, the linear phase and the aging phase. This research aims to identify and determine the phase of the spread of COVID-19 in Maluku province with the Richards curve. From the calculation results obtained that the initial phase of the spread occurred on March 23 - July 5 2020, the peak phase of the spread occurred on July 6 - October 22 2020, the final phase of the peak of the spread occurred on October 23, 2020 - April 14, 2021 and began to enter the final phase of the spread on April 15, 2021.
Analisis Stabilitas dan Simulasi Model Penyebaran Penyakit HIV/AIDS Tipe SIA (Susceptible, Infected, Abstained) Zeth Arthur Leleury; Francis Yunito Rumlawang; Alva Grace Naraha
Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Vol 1 No 1 (2020): Tensor : Pure And Applied Mathematics Journal
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Pattimura University, Ambon, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/tensorvol1iss1pp31-40

Abstract

HIV/AIDS is a disease that continues to grow and become a global problem that requires special attention. This can be seen from the high number of cases of HIV/AIDS every year. In this study, we discussed an analysis of stability of a point equilibrium and numerical simulation for the spread of HIV/AIDS. The mathematical models that we used is SIA (Susceptibles, Infected, Abstained) model. The model of SIA assumed that sub populations infected will increase because of the influence of the transmission rate sub populations infected to sub population susceptibles. However, mode of transmission of HIV is possible if the transmission of individual of sub populations abstained to individual of sub population susceptibles. The result of the model indicate that population growth rate is determined by theese parameters: birth, death, interaction and isolation. Based on the result of the model simulation showed that the impact of the sub populations abstained would affect so reduced sub population infected.
Fixed Point Theorem in 2-Normed Spaces Francis Yunito Rumlawang
Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Vol 1 No 1 (2020): Tensor : Pure And Applied Mathematics Journal
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Pattimura University, Ambon, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/tensorvol1iss1pp41-46

Abstract

In this paper we prove a fixed point theorem in a complete 2-normed Spaces. We define a norm derived from 2-norm. To get the theorem proved we first study some convergent and Cauchy sequences, and contractive mappings in 2-normed spaces.
Penyelesaian Numerik Persamaan Diferensial Orde Dua Dengan Metode Runge-Kutta Orde Empat Pada Rangkaian Listrik Seri LC Monalisa E Rijoly; Francis Yunito Rumlawang
Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Vol 1 No 1 (2020): Tensor : Pure And Applied Mathematics Journal
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Pattimura University, Ambon, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/tensorvol1iss1pp7-14

Abstract

One alternative to solve second order differential equations by numerical methods, specificallynon-liner differential equations is the Runge-Kutta fourth order method. The Runge-Kutta fourth ordermethod is a numerical method that has high degree of precision and accuracy when compared to othernumerical methods. In this paper we will discuss the numerical solution of second order differentialequations on LC series circuit problem using the Runge-Kutta fourth order method. The numericalsolution generated by the computational calculation using the MATLAB program, the strong current andcharge are obtaind from t = 0 and t =0,5 second and different step size values
Kajian Grup Galois Isomorfis dengan Grup Alternating A5 Henry Willyam Michel Patty; Fandy Sanudin; Francis Yunito Rumlawang; Dyana Patty
Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Vol 3 No 1 (2022): Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Pattimura University, Ambon, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/tensorvol3iss1pp49-56

Abstract

Basic Website Creation Training for Muhammadiyah Mamala High School Students in Central Maluku Regency Citra Fathia Palembang; Mozart Winston Talakua; Zeth Arthur Leleury; Yopi Andry Lesnussa; Francis Yunito Rumlawang; Jefri Esna Thomas Radjabaycolle; Abraham Zakharia Wattimena; Henry Willyam M. Patty
MOVE: Journal of Community Service and Engagement Vol. 1 No. 3 (2022): January 2022
Publisher : EQUATOR SINAR AKADEMIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (108.759 KB) | DOI: 10.54408/move.v1i3.32

Abstract

The team's implementation of community service activities provides materials and training to Muhammadiyah Mamala High School students on how to easily build a website from the ground up using a content management system (CMS) until the website is successfully uploaded to the Internet (hosting), both for free and for a fee. The goal of this community service activity is for students to gain information technology knowledge that is not limited to being able to access information, but also to being able to create a container/information medium in the form of a website and, hopefully, to help the school in developing the school website in the future
Prediction of Life Expectancy in Maluku Province Using Backpropagation Artificial Neural Networks Yopi Andry Lesnussa; Francis Yunito Rumlawang; Endro Risamasu; Charlita Fhilya
Jurnal Matematika Integratif Vol 16, No 2: Oktober 2020
Publisher : Department of Matematics, Universitas Padjadjaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (458.907 KB) | DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v16.n2.26606.75-82

Abstract

Life Expectancy at Birth (LE) is defined as the average estimated number of years a person can live to since their birth. The purpose of LE is to represent the health rate of a community. Backpropagation is an algorithm in artificial neural networks (ANN) used to predict or forecast data. This study aims to predict Life Expectancy in Moluccas. Based on the results of the analysis obtained an average forecasting success of 99.65% with the smallest error MAPE = 0,0035. Forecasting for the next 5 years shows that the Life Expectancy value tends to increase over the next 5 years from 2019-2023 at 65.7828 (2019) increasing to 66.6632 (2023).
Penerapan Metode SVM Untuk Deteksi Dini Penyakit Stroke (Studi Kasus : RSUD Dr. H. Ishak Umarella Maluku Tengah dan RS Sumber Hidup-GPM) Berny Pebo Tomasouw; Francis Yunito Rumlawang
Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Vol 4 No 1 (2023): Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Pattimura University, Ambon, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/tensorvol4iss1pp37-44

Abstract

Stroke is a significant health problem in today's modern society. Early detection of stroke usually takes a long time. To prevent the risk of a significant disabling stroke, it is good to pay attention and recognize the symptoms of a stroke early on. In this study, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method was used to detect stroke based on risk factors for stroke consisting of blood pressure, age, LDL, and blood sugar. Based on the results obtained, the nonlinear SVM method has a better level of accuracy than the linear SVM. This is because of the two data-sharing schemes, the linear SVM only has an accuracy rate of 81.25%, while the nonlinear SVM has an accuracy rate of 84.38%. Especially for the nonlinear SVM, the RBF kernel has a better level of accuracy than the polynomial kernel. This can be seen from the results of testing the two data sharing schemes, the RBF kernel has the best results, namely the highest accuracy rate of 84.38% and 84% respectively