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All Journal Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Jurnal Siger Matematika Jurnal Matematika Integratif Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application
Nusyirwan Nusyirwan
Universitas Lampung
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Transportation

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Aplikasi Metode Sillhouette Coefficient, Metode Elbow dan Metode Gap Staticstic dalam Menentukan K Optimal pada Analisis K-Medoids Hilda Lailatul Ramadhania; Widiarti Widiarti; La Zakaria; Nusyirwan Nusyirwan
Jurnal Siger Matematika Vol 4, No 1 (2023): Jurnal Siger Matematika
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jsm.v4i1.3196

Abstract

The K-Medoids method is a non-hierarchical cluster analysis method where information on the exact number of clusters is required. The data used in this study uses simulation data from reference data on the percentage of households according to drinking water sources. The simulation data used uses a multivariate normal distribution, so that the simulation data allows for negative data. In this study, two options were carried out on negative data results, namely being zero and absolute. The method in determining the optimal number of clusters used the Sillhouette Coefficient method, the Elbow method and the Gap Statistics method. The average Dunn Index value from the data on the zeroed option produces the largest Dunn Index value in determining the optimal number of clusters using the Gap Statistic method, which is 0,125734, while in the second option data, the Dunn Index average is greatest in determining the number of clusters optimally using the Sillhouette Coefficient method, which is 0,113315.
Penerapan Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) Menggunakan Fungsi Keanggotaan Generalized Bell Untuk Peramalan Data Time Series Rachma Adji Ramadanti; Nusyirwan Nusyirwan; Pandri Ferdias; Khoirin Nisa
Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Vol 9, No 2 (2023): JSMS Juli 2023
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/jsms.v9i2.20789

Abstract

Analisis deret waktu merupakan teknik analisis dalam statistika yang menggunakan data observasi dari beberapa periode secara beruntun dalam interval waktu yang tetap.  Dalam analisis ini, model dibangun dan diidentifikasi dari pola data peristiwa dari masa lalu.  ANFIS merupakan salah satu metode yang dapat digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan data time series, ANFIS sendiri merupakan salah satu jenis neural network yang berbasis pada sistem inferensi fuzzy Takagi Sugeno.  Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menerapkan ANFIS untuk meramalkan data time series menggunakan fungsi keanggotaan generalized bell.  Selanjutnya menduga model ANFIS dan memperoleh tingkat akurasi dari model peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) dengan metode ANFIS.  Variabel prediktor yang digunakan adalah inflasi dan uang beredar, untuk variabel respon yang digunakan adalah IHK.  Model terbaik dipilih berdasarkan pada nilai RMSE.  Hasil analisis menunjukan bahwa penggunaan metode ANFIS sudah baik untuk peramalan data karena hasil prediksi sudah cukup mendekati data aktual dan RMSE model ANFIS dengan 2-cluster memberikan tingkat keakuratan yang baik untuk meramalkan IHK dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 5,29907. Kata Kunci:  data time series, ANFIS, indeks harga konsumen, peramalan
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach using the CB-SEM Method: Case Study of Service Quality Putri Meyla Oktavia; Eri Setiawan; Nusyirwan Nusyirwan; Netti Herawati
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol 1 No 2 (2023): JULY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

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Abstract

The purpose of this study to analyze the service level, satisfaction and loyalty of Sariringgung Beach visitors.Covarian based approach to estimatemaximum likelihood method in the service levelto the satisfaction and loyalty of visitorstourism area of Sariringgung Beach is used. The results of this study indicate that the direct effect of service level to satisfaction is 77%, service level to loyalty is 75%. Whereas the indirect effect of service level on loyalty through satisfaction is 38,5%. Then the total effect of service level on customer loyalty through satisfaction is 73,5%.
Forecasting Seasonal Time Series Data Using The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method of Additive Models Nurhamidah Nurhamidah; Nusyirwan Nusyirwan; Ahmad Faisol
Jurnal Matematika Integratif Vol 16, No 2: Oktober 2020
Publisher : Department of Matematics, Universitas Padjadjaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v16.n2.29293.151-157

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to predict seasonal time series data using the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing additive model.  The data used in this study is data on the number of passengers departing at Hasanudin Airport in 2009-2019, the source of the data obtained from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency.  The results showed that the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method on the passenger's number at Hasanudin Airport in 2009 to 2019 contained trend patterns and seasonal patterns, by first determining the initial values and smoothing parameters that could minimize forecasting errors.
Co-Authors Ahmad Faisol Ahmad Faisol Azkia Nadwah Eri Setiawan Hilda Lailatul Ramadhania Khoirin Nisa La Zakaria Netti Herawati Nurhamidah Nurhamidah Pandri Ferdias Putri Meyla Oktavia Rachma Adji Ramadanti Widiarti Widiarti