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All Journal FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Pythagoras: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Media Statistika Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi Jurnal Agro Ekonomi JAM : Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) JUITA : Jurnal Informatika Indonesian Journal of Biotechnology Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen (JABM) E-Journal Jurnal Manajemen. AL-ISHLAH: Jurnal Pendidikan International Research Journal of Business Studies (E-Journal) Jurnal Penelitian Pertanian Tanaman Pangan BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications JURNAL AGRONIDA Jurnal Manajemen Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Journal of Data Science and Its Applications Xplore: Journal of Statistics
I Made Sumertajaya
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Institut Pertanian Bogor Kampus Darmaga, Bogor 16680
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Immunology & microbiology Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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PENGGEROMBOLAN DESA/KELURAHAN BERDASARKAN INDIKATOR KEMISKINAN DENGAN MENERAPKAN ALGORITMA TSC DAN K-PROTOTYPES Andrew Donda Munthe; I Made Sumertajaya; Utami Dyah Syafitri
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 2 No 2 (2018)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v2i2.169

Abstract

Statistic Indonesia (BPS) noted that in 2014 there were 3.270 villages in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province. Most of them have a high percentage of poverty. Therefore, the village clustering based on poverty indicators is very important. The clustering algorithm that can be used on large data size and with mixed variables are Two Step Cluster (TSC) and K-Prototypes. The purpose of this research is to compare of TSC and K-Prototypes algorithm for village clustering in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province based on poverty indicators. The data were taken from 2014 village potential data (PODES 2014) collected by BPS. The best selection criteria for the cluster is the minimum ratio between variance within groups and variance between groups. The result showed that the best clustering algorithm was TSC which had the smallest ratio (2.6963). The best clustering showed that villages in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province divided into six groups with different characteristics.
KAJIAN MODEL PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DI BANDARA KUALANAMU MEDAN TANPA DAN DENGAN KOVARIAT Isti Rochayati; Utami Dyah Syafitri; I Made Sumertajaya; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.171

Abstract

Foreign tourist arrivals could be considered as time series data. Modelling these data could make use of internal and external factors. The techniques employed here to model these time series data are SARIMA, SARIMAX, VARIMA, and VARIMAX. SARIMA is a model for seasonal data and VARIMA is a model for multivariate time series data. If some explanatory variables are incorporated and have significant influence on the response, the former two models become SARIMAX and VARIMAX respectively. Three stages of creating the model are model identification, parameter estimation, and model diagnostics. The variables used in this study were foreign tourist visits, international passenger arrivals, inflation rates, currency exchange rates, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) over the period of 2010-2017. All four models fulfill their model assumptions and therefore could be applied. The best model of foreign tourist arrivals was VARIMA with the value of MAPE testing data = 6.123.
A REPEATED CROSS-SECTIONAL MODEL FOR ANALYZING UNEMPLOYMENT DATA IN BOGOR Ulfah Sulistyowati; Khairil Anwar Notodiputro; I Made Sumertajaya
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 2 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i2.513

Abstract

In general, the form of data encountered in statistical problems is panel data and cross-sectional data. There are times in certain conditions, the data formed in the form of a combination of panel data with cross-sectional data, which is commonly referred to as repeated cross-sectional data. Repeated cross-sectional data is often done in research with individual observations. In this study, a repeated cross-sectional analysis was carried out using a fixed influence model with observations in the form of an area (village) in Bogor, West Java to analyze unemployment factors. The results obtained are that ongoing village development affects the unemployment rate in Bogor
PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PERAMALAN SPACE TIME: Studi Kasus: Data Produksi Padi di Sulawesi Selatan Evita Choiriyah; Utami Dyah Syafitri; I Made Sumertajaya
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 4 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i4.584

Abstract

Based on Statistics Indonesia (BPS) South Sulawesi is one of the national rice granary province. There are three regions, Bone, Wajo, and Gowa that contribute to the high production of rice in South Sulawesi. However, rice production in Indonesia especially South Sulawesi often declined sharply due to climate disturbances, such as drought or flood. Therefore, Indonesia's government should provide a forecast related to rice production accurately to ensure the availability of food stocks as an integral part of national food security. Moreover, rainfall as climate factors should be included to produce an appropriate forecast model that can be expected to generate the estimation of the rice production data accurately. This research focused on comparing the forecasting model of rice production data by SARIMAX and GSTARIMAX model and used rainfall as explanatory variables. The SARIMAX model is a multivariate time series forecasting model that can accommodate the seasonal components. In contrast, the GSTARIMAX model, which is equipped with an inverse distance spatial weight matrix, is a space-time forecasting model that involves interconnection between locations. The GSTARIMAX model built for rice production forecasting in Bone, Wajo, and Gowa is GSTARIMAX (2,1,0)(0,1,1)12. Rainfall as an explanatory variable was significant at each location. The comparison of rice production forecasting models for the next six periods in four locations showed that the GSTARIMAX model provided more stable forecasting results than the SARIMAX model, viewed from the average MAPE value of the GSTARIMAX mode in each location.
PENGGEROMBOLAN SUBSEKTOR INDUSTRI BERDASARKAN PERKEMBANGAN INDEKS PRODUKSI MENGGUNAKAN PREDICTION-BASED CLUSTERING Agustin Faradila; Utami Dyah Syafitri; I Made Sumertajaya
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 3 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i3.585

Abstract

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) noted that there has been a decrease in the contribution of the industrial sector to the national GDP even though it had provided a significant multiplier effect on national economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to cluster the industrial subsector based on its growth patterns so that the optimization of development results can be achieved. Prediction-based clustering is part of time series clustering (TSclust) which aims to form clusters based on prediction characteristics so that it can be used to choose a cluster that will become a mainstay industry in the future. This study focused on applying prediction-based clustering in the large and medium industrial sub-sector for a prediction period of 1 month, 1 quarter, and 1 semester. The data used in this study was the production index data from January 2010 to December 2018. The results showed that the best cluster for 1 month consisted of 5 groups, for 1 quarter consisted of 4 groups and for 1 semester consisted of 2 groups. Thus, it was concluded that the food industry; leather industry, leather goods, and footwear; and the pharmaceutical industry, chemical drug products, and traditional medicine could be chosen to be the mainstay industry in the future.
PENGGEROMBOLAN DERET WAKTU DENGAN PENDEKATAN UKURAN KEMIRIPAN PICCOLO UNTUK PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN PROVINSI BANTEN Sarah Fadhlia; I Made Sumertajaya; Anik Djuraidah
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 2 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i2.607

Abstract

Time series data modeling can be done by modeling each object one by one. Monthly rainfall data is an example of time series data. The purpose of time series analysis is to find patterns of past data and then forecast the future characteristics of data. The data used in this study is the Banten Province rainfall data which contained 19 rainfall stations. So it will require 19 models to forecast the rainfall data. The pattern of time series data in Banten Province monthly rainfall data in several locations has similarities. So that the similarity of this pattern can be considered in the clusters. In time series clustering, the idea is to investigate the similarity of time series in a cluster. The accuracy of distance similarity size measurements is performed on the generation data generated from 3 models, namely AR (1), AR (2), and AR (3). The piccolo method has an average accuracy of 0.62. While the maharaj method has an average accuracy of 0.41. This means that the Ward hierarchical clustering method using the Piccolo distance approach has a greater accuracy value than the Maharaj distance approach. Furthermore, the Piccolo method can be used as an alternative to the excellent distance method for grouping time series data in case data. The Banten Province rainfall station has 3 optimal clusters. Modeling individual level and cluster level has accuracy values that are not much different.
KAJIAN VARIANCE MEAN RATIO PADA SIMULASI SEBARAN DATA BINOMIAL NEGATIF Choirun Nisa; Muhammad Nur Aidi; I Made Sumertajaya
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 4 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i4.689

Abstract

The negative binomial distribution is one of the data collection counts that focuses on success and failure events. This study conducted a study of the distribution of negative binomial data to determine the characterization of the distribution based on the value of Variance Mean Ratio (VMR). Simulation data are generated based on negative binomial distribution with a combination of p and n parameters. The results of the VMR study on negative binomial distribution simulation data show that the VMR value will be smaller when the p-value is large and the VMR value is more stable as the sample size increases. Simulation data of negative binomial distribution when p≥0.5 begins to change data distribution to the distribution of Poisson and binomial. The calculation VMR value can be used as a reference for detecting patterns of data count distribution.
ANALISIS INFLASI MENGGUNAKAN DATA GOOGLE TRENDS DENGAN MODEL ARIMAX DI DKI JAKARTA Newton Newton; Anang Kurnia; I Made Sumertajaya
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 3 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i3.694

Abstract

Inflation is an important economic indicator in showing the economic symptoms of a region's price level. DKI Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia chosen as the center of the economic barometer because it can provide the greatest contribution and influence on the Indonesian economy. The ARIMAX model was used for forecasting by adding independent variables in the Google trends data. Google trends data were explored based on seven expenditure groups published by IHK. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of forecast Google trends using BPS inflation data in DKI Jakarta. The result of the exploration of Google Trends data was forecasted to get the best forecast model results. The result of data analysis indicates that the forecast results approached the original BPS data with the best forecast model is ARIMAX (2.0.3) all variables X. Google Trends data can be used as forecasting but cannot be used as a reference policy decision.
Geographically Weighted Regression with Kernel Weighted Function on Poverty Cases in West Java Province: Regresi Terboboti Geografis dengan Fungsi Pembobot Kernel pada Data Kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat Winda Nurpadilah; I Made Sumertajaya; Muhamad Nur Aidi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p173-181

Abstract

Spatial regression analysis is a form of regression model that considers spatial effects. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is the spatial regression methods that can be used to deal with the problem of spatial diversity. This method generates local model parameter estimates for each observation location. The application of spatial statistics can be done in all areas such as the problem of poverty. Poverty can be influenced by factors of proximity between regions, so that in determining the poverty factor, the proximity factor of the region cannot be ignored. West Java Province is a province with the largest population, so this study aims to model the poverty data in West Java Province by incorporating spatial effects. The weighting function used for the GWR model is the function of the fixed and adaptive kernels. The analysis results show that the fixed exponential kernel function has the smallest cross validation (CV) value, so the weighting matrix used in the model is determined by the exponential kernel function. The largest  value and the smallest AIC value are owned by the GWR model with an exponential kernel function. Based on the results obtained by the the ANOVA table to test GWR's global goodness, the GWR model is more effective than global regression. Therefore, the GWR model is the best model when it used in West Java’s poverty cases. The effect of each explanatory variable on the percentage of poverty varies in each district/city in West Java Province.
Study of Clustering Time Series Forecasting Model for Provincial Grouping in Indonesia Based on Rice Price: Kajian Model Peramalan Clustering Time Series untuk Penggerombolan Provinsi Indonesia berdasarkan Harga Beras Muhammad Ulinnuha; Farit M Afendi; I Made Sumertajaya
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 6 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v6i1p50-62

Abstract

Most indonesians consume rice as the main staple. The high low price of rice has an impact on farmers and communities, especially those who cannot afford it. Rice price forecasting is one of the important information to be considered for future rice prices. The data used is secondary data sourced from bps publication, Rural Consumer Price Statistics: Food Group, from January 2008 to December 2019 for 32 provinces in Indonesia. Time series  modeling and forecasting is usually done on a single variable using ARIMA. however, modeling becomes inefficient if there are many variables, so clustering time series analysis is performed using correlation distance with the clustering method of average linkage hierarchy. Cluster level ARIMA modeling with 4 clusters provides high efficiency because only by doing 4 times modeling results in accuracy values not much different from individual level modeling. the results obtained by individual-level ARIMA Modeling resulted in an average MAPE of 3.36%, while cluster-level ARIMA modeling with 4 clusters resulted in an average MAPE value of 4.27%, with a second MAPE difference of -0.91%. Formally conducted z test, the results obtained there is no difference between individual-level MAPE and cluster-level MAPE. This means that cluster-level modeling is relatively good and representative.
Co-Authors A Kurnia A. A. Mattjik AA Mattjik Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Abdu Alifah Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Ade Gusalinda Agustin Faradila Ahmad Anshori Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Matjjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Aidi, Muhammad N Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Alfian Futuhul Hadi Anang Kurnia Andi Setiawan Andrew Donda Munthe Anggraini Sukmawati Anik Djuraidah Aropah, Vina Da'watul ASEP SAEFUDDIN Choirun Nisa Cici Suhaeni Debora Chrisinta Dian Kusumaningrum Doni Suhartono Dwi Yoga Ari Wibowo Dwi Yulianti Emeylia Safitri Erfiani Erfiani Erwina Erwina Evita Choiriyah Farit M Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Faula Arina Fitria Hasanah Fitrianto, Anwar Halimatus Sa'diyah Hari Wijayanto Hari Wijayanto Haryastuti, Rizqi Hilda Zaikarina Huda, Usep Firdaus I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya Ilma Nabila Imam Adiyana Indahwati Indahwati Indahwati Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Iqbal, Teuku Achmad Isti Rochayati Itasia Dina Sulvianti Jamaluddin Rabbani Harahap Jono Mintarto Mundandar K A Notodiputro Kurnia, A Kusman Sadik M. Syamsul Maarif Ma'mun Sarma Manuel Leonard Sirait Manuel Leonard Sirait Manuel Leonard Sirait Mattjik, AA Mohamad Rhesa Adisty Mohammad Syamsul Maarif Muhamad Nur Aidi Muhammad N Aidi Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Ulinnuha Mulianto Raharjo Newton Newton Novi Hidayat Pusponegoro Novia Puspasari Nurus Sabani Pasaribu, Sahat M. Pepi Novianti Pika Silvianti Pudji Muljono Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rizqi Haryastuti Sahat M. Pasaribu Sarah Fadhlia Satria Yudha Herawan SATRIYAS ILYAS Septian Rahardiantoro Setyono Setyono Setyono, Setyono Sirait, Manuel Leonard Sutomo, Valantino A Syella Sumampouw Ulfah Sulistyowati Unggul Sentanu Noercahyo Utami Dyah Syafitri Utami Syafitri Valantino A Sutomo Winda Nurpadilah Windi D.Y Putri Yenni Angraini Zulkarnain, Rizky