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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

bilp
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Published by Kementerian Perdagangan

ISSN : 19799187 EISSN : 25282751 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.

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Search results for , issue "Vol 13 No 2 (2019):" : 7 Documents clear

THE PROGRESSIVE EXPORT TAX AND INDONESIA’S PALM OIL PRODUCT EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS Immanuel; Suharno; Amzul Rifin
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 13 No 2 (2019):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Abstrak Hubungan antara daya saing produk kelapa sawit dan intervensi kebijakan pemerintah di Indonesia masih sering menjadi perdebatan diantara pemangku kepentingan. Terkait dengan hal tersebut, penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara pajak ekspor progresif dengan perubahan pangsa ekspor CPO Crude Palm Oil (CPO) dan Refined Palm Oil (RPO) serta mengkaji daya saing kedua komoditi. Metode yang digunakan adalah Revealed Compared Advantage (RCA) dan Export Product Dynamic (EPD) untuk mengukur perubahan pangsa ekspor serta tingkat daya saing produk CPO dan RPO ke negara tujuan utama ekspor. Untuk melihat dampak kebijakan tersebut, kajian ini membandingkan sebelum dan sesudah diberlakukannya kebijakan pajak ekspor progresif pada akhir tahun 2007 dan menggunakan data bulanan ekspor produk CPO dan RPO periode 1997-2018. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa setelah diberlakukannya pajak ekspor progresif, pada komoditi CPO telah terjadi penurunan pangsa ekspor sebesar 21% dan pergeseran tingkat daya saing produk dari posisi Rising Star ke Lost Opportunity. Sebaliknya pada komoditi RPO terjadi peningkatan pangsa ekspor dan daya saing dari Falling Star ke Rising Star. Peningkatan pangsa ekspor dan daya saing RPO merupakan salah satu pencapaian dari tujuan kebijakan pajak ekspor. Analisis ini memberikan catatan penting bagi pemerintah dalam membuka alternatif pasar baru dengan tetap mempertahankan pangsa ekspor di negara tujuan ekspor utama. Kata Kunci: CPO, Pajak Ekspor, Daya saing, RCA, EPD Abstract The relationship between Indonesia’s palm oil product competitiveness and the government's policy intervention is still disputable among stakeholders. This research analyzes the association between the progressive export tax and the changes in export shares of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Refined Palm Oil (RPO) as well as the competitiveness of both commodities. Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and export product dynamic (EPD) are used to measure the change in the export shares of CPO and RPO as well as of their export competitiveness to the main destination countries. To examine the impact of this policy, this research compares before and after the enactment of a progressive export tax policy at the end of 2007 and uses monthly export data for CPO and RPO products for the period 1997-2018. The result finds that after the enactment of the progressive export tax of CPO , the export share of CPO declined by 21% and the level of competitiveness of CPO products moved from Rising Star to Lost Opportunity compared with the condition during 1997-2007. In contrast, the export share of RPO products increased and its competitiveness level moved to a better position from Falling Star to Rising Star. Although shifting the export value of both CPO and RPO, as one of the objectives of the implementation of the export tax, was achieved, this study is highlighting essential commentary in which policymaker still needs to search for new export markets while maintaining export shares in the main export destinations. Keywords: CPO, Export Tax, Competitiveness, RCA, EPD JEL Classification: Q17, F13, O24

VOLATILITAS HARGA BAWANG MERAH DI INDONESIA Sahara; Mei Hardianti Utari; Zulva Azijah
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 13 No 2 (2019):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Abstrak Bawang merah merupakan salah satu komoditi hortikultura yang strategis dan bernilai ekonomi tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efisiensi pemasaran (transmisi) dan asimetri harga bawang merah di Indonesia. Analisis asimetri harga dilakukan dengan menggunakan pendekatan Error Correction Models (ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa telah terjadi asimetri harga yang berarti bahwa transmisi harga atau harga yang diteruskan antara lembaga pemasaran. Hal ini disebabkan karena transmisi harga berlangsung secara tidak sempurna akibat adanya inefisiensi pasar baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Dalam hal ini produsen tidak mendapat manfaat atas kenaikan harga di tingkat konsumen dan konsumen tidak mendapat manfaat atas penurunan harga di tingkat produsen. Hasil penelitian ini merekomendasikan perlunya campur tangan pemerintah untuk mengawasi rantai pemasaran sampai ke pasar induk. Pemerintah perlu menata distribusi sentra produksi, distribusi hasil panen antar wilayah, serta mengawasi dan mengevaluasi kebijakan harga bawang merah. Kebijakan-kebijakan tersebut bertujuan untuk menjamin kecukupan dan kelancaran distribusi bawang merah. Kata Kunci: Asimetri, Bawang Merah, ECM, Transmisi Harga. Abstract Shallot is one of the strategic horticultural commodities and has a high economic value. This study aims to analyze marketing (transmission) efficiency and asymmetry of the price shallots in Indonesia. Price asymmetry analysis is performed using the Error Correction Models (ECM) approach. The results showed that there had been price asymmetry which meant that the transmission of prices or prices were passed on between marketing institutions. This is due to the imperfect transmission of prices due to market inefficiencies both in the short and long term. In this case producers do not benefit from price increases at the consumer level and consumers do not benefit from price decreases at the producer level. The result of this research recommend the need for government intervention to oversee the marketing chain to the wholesale market. The government needs to organize the distribution of production centres, distribution of harvests between regions, and oversee and evaluate the shallot price policy. These policies aim to ensure the adequacy and smooth distribution of shallots. Key words : Asymmetry, ECM, Price Transmission, Shallot. JEL Classification : Q11, Q12, Q13

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI PEMBELI ONLINE DI INDONESIA Ribut Nurul Tri Wahyuni; Sandra Logaritma
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 13 No 2 (2019):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Abstrak Saat ini, teknologi berkembang pesat di Indonesia. Salah satu bentuk pemanfaatan teknologi adalah perdagangan berbasis online (e-commerce). E-commerce dapat memberikan banyak manfaat jika dapat dilaksanakan dengan baik dan didukung oleh regulasi pemerintah. Perkembangan e-commerce sangat dipengaruhi oleh jumlah pelanggan, tetapi saat ini baru 3,18% penduduk Indonesia yang telah melakukan pembelian secara online. Penelitian ini membahas faktor-faktor yang dapat memengaruhi ‘persentase pembeli online’ di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data cross section, yaitu provinsi-provinsi di Indonesia tahun 2017. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode analisis jalur (path analysis) untuk melihat pengaruh langsung dan tidak langsung dari variabel persentase pengguna internet per jumlah penduduk, pendapatan per kapita, dan rata-rata lama sekolah terhadap persentase pembeli online. Hasilnya adalah persentase pengguna internet berpengaruh langsung terhadap persentase pembeli online. Sedangkan pendapatan per kapita dan rata-rata lama sekolah berpengaruh tidak langsung terhadap persentase pembeli online. Untuk mendukung peningkatan persentase pembeli online di Indonesia, pemerintah perlu meningkatkan anggaran untuk infrastruktur komunikasi, pendidikan, dan sumber daya manusia. Kata Kunci: E-commerce, Pembeli Online, Metode Analisis Jalur Abstract Nowadays, technology grows rapidly in Indonesia. One of the technology utilization is online shopping (e-commerce). E-commerce can provide benefits if it is implemented properly and supported by government regulations. The development of e-commerce is strongly influenced by the number of customers, but the percentage of Indonesians buying online is only 3.18%. This research discusses the influencing factors of online customers in Indonesia by using cross-section data (provinces in Indonesia in 2017). It uses the path analysis method to find the direct and indirect effect of the percentage of internet users per total population, income per capita, and educational attainment to the percentage of online consumers. The percentage of internet users has a direct effect on the percentage of online consumers. Income per capita and educational attainment have an indirect effect on the percentage of online consumers. To increase the percentage of online customers in Indonesia, the government needs to increase the budget on communication infrastructure, education, and human resources. Keywords: E-commerce, Online Customer, Path Analysis JEL Classification: C390, L810, M380

THE EFFECT OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT) ON INDONESIAN BILATERAL TRADE WITH ASEAN COUNTRIES Dyah Titis Kusuma Wardani; Muhammad Azizurrohman; Aliza Hari Tanthowy
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 13 No 2 (2019):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Abstrak Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi (TIK) dan perdagangan memiliki keterkaitan untuk mendukung pencapaian efisiensi pasar melalui pengurangan biaya, peningkatan promosi dan penciptaan kerangka distribusi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak pengembangan TIK pada perdagangan bilateral antara Indonesia dan mitra dagangnya di negara-negara ASEAN. Penelitian ini menggunakan kerangka Model Gravitasi dengan data panel periode 2010-2017, dengan estimasi model random effect. Sampel yang digunakan adalah sembilan negara anggota ASEAN yang merupakan mitra dagang Indonesia. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa, TIK memiliki dampak yang positif dan signifikan terhadap volume ekspor Indonesia ke negara-negara ASEAN. Variabel lain seperti PDB riil Indonesia and mitra dagang ASEAN serta populasi mitra dagang juga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Sementara jarak dan nilai tukar riil memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor Indonesia ke ASEAN. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, beberapa implikasi kebijakan antara lain, Indonesia dapat mengembangkan kemitraan perdagangan strategis dengan negara-negara yang memiliki ukuran ekonomi besar dan telah mencapai pengembangan TIK yang tinggi seperti Singapura dan Malaysia, sehingga dapat meningkatkan volume perdagangan ke ASEAN terutama untuk produk-produk berbasis TIK. Kata Kunci: Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi; Perdagangan Bilateral; Indeks Pengembangan TIK (IPTIK); Model Gravitasi Abstract Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and trade have a relationship to support the achievement of market efficiency through cost reduction, increase promotion and distribution framework creation. This study aims to analyze the impacts of ICT Development on bilateral trade between Indonesia and its trading partners in the ASEAN countries. Using an extended panel gravity model framework and panel data models for the period 2010–2017 employing a random effect model estimator. The sample includes nine ASEAN member countries as Indonesia’s trading partners. Results indicate that ICT Development has positive and significant impacts on Indonesian export volume toward ASEAN countries. Other variables such as Indonesian RGDP, partners’ RGDP and population have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia export to ASEAN. Meanwhile, distance and real exchange rates have a negative and significant effect on Indonesian export. Based on estimation results, some policy implications can be derived. For instance, Indonesia may develop strategic trading partnerships with countries that have a large economic size and have achieved high levels of ICT development such as Singapore and Malaysia, in order to increase Indonesian trade volume to ASEAN countries, especially on ICT based products. Keywords: Information and Communication Technology; Bilateral Trade; ICT Development Index (IDI); Gravity Model JEL Classification: O33; F10; C43; C29

DAMPAK FDI VERTIKAL DAN HORIZONTAL TERHADAP NILAI TAMBAH 18 SUB SEKTOR INDUSTRI MAKANAN DOMESTIK Fitria Yuliani; Hermanto Siregar; Widyastutik; Amzul Rifin
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 13 No 2 (2019):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Abstrak Untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, Indonesia membutuhkan investasi asing langsung/Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) karena tingkat tabungan di Indonesia jauh lebih kecil dibandingkan kebutuhan investasi. FDI diyakini dapat meningkatkan nilai tambah suatu sektor atau industri. FDI terdiri dari dua jenis, yaitu FDI horizontal (intra industri) dan FDI vertikal (inter industri – dengan keterkaitan ke depan dan ke belakang). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak FDI vertikal dan horizontal terhadap nilai tambah di 18 sub sektor industri makanan domestik. Dengan menggunakan metode estimasi fixed effect cross section SUR model dan random effect model, hasil penelitian menunjukkan FDI vertikal dengan keterkaitan ke belakang memberikan dampak paling besar terhadap nilai tambah perusahaan domestik dibandingkan FDI vertikal dengan keterkaitan ke depan dan horizontal. FDI vertikal dengan keterkaitan ke belakang berdampak positif terhadap nilai tambah perusahaan domestik dengan modal rendah dan padat tenaga kerja (padat karya). Oleh karena itu, investasi asing di industri makanan paling hilir, seperti industri minuman tidak beralkohol dan industri makanan lainnya perlu dibuka dengan persyaratan bagi investor asing melakukan kerja sama sub contracting dengan perusahaan domestik di industri makanan hulu. Kata kunci: Industri Makanan Domestik, FDI Horizontal, FDI Vertikal, Keterkaitan ke Belakang, Keterkaitan ke Depan, Nilai Tambah Abstract To boost its economic growth, Indonesia needs Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) since the national savings rate is relatively low compared to the high demand for investments. FDI has been proven to be able to enhance the value-added of a sector or industry. There are 2 types of FDI which are Horizontal FDI (intra-industry) and Vertical FDI (inter industry-with upstream and downstream linkages). This study aimed to analyze the impact of horizontal and vertical FDI on the value added to the 18 subsectors in the domestic food industry. By using the fixed-effect cross-section SUR and random effect model, the results showed that the vertical FDI on downstream linkages gives a more positive effect on value-added than vertical FDI on upstream linkages and horizontal FDI. The vertical FDI on downstream linkages gives a positive impact on local companies with a lower level of capital but higher labor (labor-intensive). Therefore, FDI on downstream linkages (for example other food industry, non-alcoholic beverages, etc) should be opened on conditions that it commits a sub-contracting cooperation with the domestic firms within the food processing industry in upstream sectors. Keywords: Domestic Food Industry, Downstream Linkages, Horizontal FDI, Vertical FDI, Upstream Linkages, Value Added JEL Classification: F21; E22; C23; O33

ANALISIS PEMANGKU KEPENTINGAN RANTAI PASOK RUMPUT LAUT INDONESIA BERBASIS SISTEM RESI GUDANG Sutriono Edi; Hermanto Siregar; Lukman Mohammad Baga; Arif Imam Suroso
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 13 No 2 (2019):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Abstrak Rantai pasok rumput laut nasional meliputi berbagai tahapan dan subsistem yang terkait satu dengan lainnya. Pemahaman keberadaan dan peran para pemangku kepentingan menjadi penting dalam integrasi pengembangan rumput laut nasional dari hulu ke hilir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memetakan pemangku kepentingan dan menganalisis hubungan antara peran, kepentingan dan kerja sama antara pemangku kepentingan dalam rantai pasok rumput laut nasional berbasis Sistem Resi Gudang (SRG). Analisis hubungan dilakukan melalui metode pemetaan kuadran pemangku kepentingan. Hasil analisis terhadap 15 pemangku kepentingan yang terlibat menunjukkan bahwa koordinasi dan kerja sama antara para pemangku kepentingan dalam rantai pasok masih lemah. Perlu beberapa strategi pendekatan untuk menjaga komunikasi dan koordinasi bagi para pemangku kepentingan terutama pada kuadran IV (closely manage/promoter) yang memiliki kepentingan dan pengaruh tinggi. Strategi penting yang dilakukan adalah melibatkan para pemangku kepentingan tersebut dengan intensif dan memengaruhi mereka secara aktif untuk mendukung integrasi hulu sampai dengan hilir rantai pasok rumput laut. Perlu suatu sistem rantai pasok yang integratif termasuk pemasarannya, serta pemanfaatan sistem Informasi Teknologi (IT) untuk dapat memberikan wadah komunikasi guna sinkronisasi, kerja sama, dan koordinasi antar para pemangku kepentingan dalam mengadapi era revolusi industri 4.0 sehingga rantai pasok pengembangan rumput laut dapat berjalan baik, efisien dan adil bagi semua pihak. Kata kunci: Analisis Pemangku Kepentingan, Sistem Resi Gudang, Kerja Sama, Rantai Pasok Rumput Laut. Abstract The national seaweed supply chain includes various stages and subsystems that are related to one another. Thus, understanding of stakeholders’ existence, as well as their role, is important in the integration of national seaweed development from upstream to downstream sides. This paper aims to map the stakeholders and analyze the relationship between roles, interests, and cooperation among stakeholders on the condition of the national seaweed supply chain based on the warehouse receipt system. The relationship analysis among stakeholders used through the stakeholders’ quadrant mapping method. The results of the analysis of the 15 stakeholders involved showed that coordination and cooperation between stakeholders in the supply chain for seaweed development still needs to be improved. It is important to approach this matter through strategies in order to maintain communication and coordination for stakeholders, especially in quadrant IV (closely manage’ or ‘promotors’) where their interests are high, and their power is also high. An essential strategy is to involve these stakeholders intensively and actively influence them to continue to support the integration of upstream to downstream seaweed supply chains. Based on this, an integrated supply chain system is needed including marketing and utilization of Information Technology (IT) systems to provide communication channels for synchronization, collaboration, and coordination among stakeholders in industry revolution 4.0 so that the supply chain for seaweed development can run well, efficient and fairly for all parties. Keywords: Stakeholder Analysis, Warehouse Receipt System, Cooperation, Seaweed Supply Chain JEL Classification: D2, L5, M10, Q13

PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KINERJA EKSPOR UTAMA PERTANIAN INDONESIA Eka Dewi Satriana; Harianto; Dominicus Savio Priyarsono
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 13 No 2 (2019):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Abstrak Nilai tukar merupakan salah satu aspek yang memengaruhi daya saing ekspor. Pada tahun 2013 hingga tahun 2015, volatilitas nilai tukar mengalami kenaikan, khususnya pada triwulan akhir tahun 2015 yaitu sebesar 16,90%. Kondisi ekspor utama pertanian Indonesia pada tahun tersebut rata-rata mengalami penurunan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh volatilitas nilai tukar terhadap kinerja ekspor utama pertanian Indonesia ke negara mitra dagang utama dengan menggunakan gravity model. Ekspor utama pertanian yang dianalisis yaitu karet alam, kopi, udang, dan Crude Palm Oil (CPO). Model ARCH-GARCH digunakan untuk mengukur volatilitas nilai tukar. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif terhadap ekspor karet alam, kopi, dan udang Indonesia. Artinya, semakin fluktuatif nilai tukar rupiah maka akan menurunkan ekspor karet alam, kopi, dan udang Indonesia ke negara mitra dagang utama. Pengaruh negatif tersebut juga menunjukkan adanya penghindaran risiko yang dilakukan oleh pelaku usaha. Beberapa rekomendasi hasil kajian yang dapat dilakukan Pemerintah Indonesia adalah menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, kemudahan akses ke lembaga keuangan, penerapan lindung nilai (hedging), kontrak jangka panjang (longterm contracts), dan menjaga pertumbuhan produksi komoditas. Kata Kunci: Volatilitas Nilai Tukar, Ekspor Utama Pertanian, Model ARCH-GARCH Abstract The exchange rate is one aspect that affects export competitiveness. From 2013 to 2015, exchange rate volatility increased, especially in the final quarter of 2015, which was 16.90%. Indonesia's main agricultural export conditions in the year on average experienced a decline. This paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate volatility on the performance of Indonesia's main agricultural exports to major trading partner countries using the gravity model. The main agricultural exports analyzed were natural rubber, coffee, shrimp, and Crude Palm Oil (CPO). The ARCH-GARCH model is used to measure exchange rate volatility. The analysis shows that exchange rate volatility harms on Indonesia's exports of natural rubber, coffee, and shrimp. This means, the more the rupiah exchange rate fluctuates will reduce Indonesia's natural rubber, coffee and shrimp exports to the main trading partner countries. The negative influence also indicates the existence of risk aversion by business actors. Some recommendations for the Government of Indonesia based on the study findings are maintaining exchange rate stability, easy access to financial institutions, implementing hedging, long-term contracts, and maintaining commodity production growth. Keywords: Exchange Rate Volatility, Main Agricultural Exports, ARCH-GARCH Model JEL Classification: F14, F31, F41, Q17

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