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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

bilp
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Published by Kementerian Perdagangan

ISSN : 19799187 EISSN : 25282751 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.

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Articles 204 Documents

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ANALISIS PEMECAHAN OVERSUPPLY BAWANG MERAH: KASUS BREBES Henny Sukesi; Ninuk Rahayuningrum; Tjahya Widyanti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 2 No 1 (2008)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

The Onion is a seasional agro product, so it can causes supply fluctuations. While the demand are likely to remain. This condition affect to the fluctuation of onion prices in consumers’ level, while prices at the farmers' level are likely to remain low, even too low at the time of harvest. Lately, onion’ farmers also havíng pressure from onion importation that declining the price at farmers level, beside of the over supply. This over supply needs to be solved through (1) trade arrangements, (2) a warehouse system to get the best price, (3) post-harvest processing, (4) the development of onion processing industry (fried onion, onion flour, onion oil).

TRANSMISI HARGA ASIMETRI DALAM RANTAI PASOK BAWANG MERAH DAN HUBUNGANNYA DENGAN IMPOR DI INDONESIA: STUDI KASUS DI BREBES DAN JAKARTA Januar Arifin Ruslan; Muhammad Firdaus; Suharno .
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10 No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.33

Disparitas harga bawang merah di tingkat petani dan konsumen sangat besar. Penelitian ini menganalisis transmisi harga dalam rantai pasok bawang merah dan menjelaskan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi transmisi harga serta menganalisis hubungan antara harga bawang merah impor terhadap harga produsen dan harga konsumen bawang merah. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Houck dan Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) serta uji kointegrasi dan kausalitas jangka panjang. Data yang digunakan merupakan data bulanan pada petani, pedagang grosir, pengecer di Kabupaten Brebes dan Kota Jakarta serta harga bawang merah impor selama Januari 2008 sampai Desember 2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam hubungan petani-grosir terjadi asimetris harga dalam jangka pendek karena terkait dengan biaya penyesuaian, sedangkan grosir-pengecer terjadi asimetris dalam jangka panjang karena terkait dengan penyalahgunaan kekuatan pasar. Penelitian ini juga menunjukkan pentingnya peran dari harga impor bawang merah dalam penentuan harga bawang merah di tingkat produsen dan konsumen. Kebijakan harga plafon (ceiling price) dan harga dasar (floor price) diharapkan dapat menghindari perilaku eksploitasi yang dilakukan pedagang perantara. Shallot, as a potential commodity in Indonesia, has a large price disparity between the farmer and the consumer prices. The price disparity is also linked to the price of shallots import. This research analyzes the price transmission of shallots during its supply chain, discusses the factors influencing the price transmission, and also investigates the relationship between the price of import and the price of producer-and-consumer.This research uses the Houck Model, Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), cointegration test and longrun causality test.The data were monthly price data of farmers, wholesalers, and retailers in Brebes regency and Jakarta; and prices of shallot import during January 2008 to December 2014.The results showed that the relationship between farmer and wholesale was asymmetric in the short term of price transmission, even in the long term of transmission wholesalers and retailers was also having asymmetric relationship. The asymmetric price transmission in the short term was related to adjusment cost while the asymetric price transmission in the long term indicated the abuse of market power. This study reveals the important role of price import in the farm and retailer prices. It is suggested to set up ceiling price and floor price in order to avoid the exploitative behavior of middlemen.

PENURUNAN PAJAK EKSPOR DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA KE CINA (PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL) Ernawati Munadi
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1 No 3 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

The palm oil Industry is an important sector in the Indonesian economiy as it is one of the country’s major export earners as well as food source for her population.Indonesia is the world second largest producer of palm oil after Malaysia, accounting for about 34% OF The world production in the year 2006. Indonesia is also the largest consumer of palm oil in the developing economies, in 2006. Indonesia consumed a total of 5.5 mn tonnes of palm oil. Of this amount 76.75% is comprised of frying oil. About 55% of the production is exported in the form of crude palm oil mainly to Asian countries primarily to India and China and Eruropean countries. Debate on Indonesia’s palm oil policy was stimulated by the sharp increase in cooking oil prices in 1994-1995 which resulted in the introduction of export tax rate on palm oil in order to maintain a certain level of domestic consumption.Using annual data for the period 1969-2006, an econometric approach mainly the error correction model. Was employed in this study This paper examines the impacts of reduction in export duty onthe import demand of Indonesian palm oil to China. The findings indicate that the quantity of palm oil exported to China is significantly influenced by changes in the soybean oil price, world palm oil price, Industrial Production Index (IPI) exchange rate and lagged of export demand of Indonesian palm oil to China by one year with the elasticity of 1,49, 1.47,0.24, 0.59, and 0.79, respectively. The coefficients for long run variables presented by the ECM are jointly not equal to zero.This result suggests that as a group, the long run variable (ECM) have influenced the changes in the export demand to China which is indicated by the significance of the coefficient. The simulation results suggest that the direct impact of reduction of export duty would increase the quantity exported to China. The Indonesia export to China from 95.36 thousand tones to 118,23 thousand tones.

PENGEMBANGAN SUSU SEGAR DALAM NEGERI UNTUK PEMENUHAN KEBUTUHAN SUSU NASIONAL Miftah Farid; Heny Sukesi
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 5 No 2 (2011)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Milk is one of the important foods for fulfilling nutrition needs. There is a wide gap between milk production and consumption. In 2002-2007, fresh milk production only grew by 2 percent; but the consumption rose by 14percent. This paper uses a descriptive analysis to explain policy and program needed by the government to develop a milk development plan. In addition, it provides material for improving coordination among government institutions. On farm level, farmers need technical assistant through government programs and Corporate social Responsibility (CSR), facilitation grass fields, and import facilitation of cows. On marketing level, government plays a very important role in creating a captive market for spreading domestic fresh milk market, evaluating the possibility of milk processing industry to be obliged to purchase domestic fresh milk, improving capital access, and improving mutual cooperation among farmers, and among milk processing firms.

DAMPAK LIBERALISASI TARIF TERHADAP BEBERAPA PRODUK EKSPOR UTAMA INDONESIA Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 3 No 2 (2009)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Tariff liberalization for Indonesia and European Union (EU) will increase competitiveness, and national welfare for both countries. Liberalization also will increase Indonesia labor demand, but will not significanly increase Indonesia trade value. This study also found that Indonesia private sector need time to adjust with liberal condition. However, it recommends Indonesia to choose long term liberalization, and need more cooperation, and ecofriendly. All of this proposal will increase Indonesia capability to penetrate EU market.

ASEAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT IMPLEMENTATION FOR INDONESIAN TRADING PERFORMANCE: A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH Yuventus Effendi
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 8 No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Salah satu tujuan dari pelaksanaan AFTA adalah untuk mengurangi hambatan perdagangan dengan mengurangi tarif impor antar anggota ASEAN dengan asumsi bahwa jika tarif lebih rendah atau nol, seharusnya terdapat peningkatan nilai perdagangan antara anggota ASEAN. Penelitian ini menguji apakah pelaksanaan AFTA memiliki dampak pada kinerja ekspor Indonesia dan kontribusi kendala di belakang perbatasan (behind the border constraints) terhadap kinerja ekspor Indonesia seperti administrasi bea dan cukai. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan model gravitasi dengan analisis stochastic frontier yang berbeda dari penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya tentang kinerja perdagangan Indonesia yang menggunakan estimasi OLS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, secara empiris, GDP , jarak, populasi, nilai tukar, tarif, dan keanggotaan di ASEAN signifikan mempengaruhi perdagangan Indonesia dengan negara partner. Lebih lanjut, hasil estimasi stochastic frontier menunjukkan bahwa kendala di belakang perbatasan menurun setiap tahunnya. Namun, ekspor Indonesia masih under trade dengan semua negara ASEAN yang mengindikasikan rendahnya pemanfaatan AFTA. Di sisi lain, ekspor Indonesia over trade dengan Cina dan hampir berada di tingkat yang optimal dengan Amerika Serikat, Jepang, dan Belanda. Implikasi dari penelitian ini adalah bahwa pemerintah Indonesia harus mempromosikan lebih banyak ekspor dengan negara-negara ASEAN untuk mencapai tujuan dari deklarasi AFTA dua dekade lalu. One objective of the AFTA implementation is to reduce trading constraints by reducing import tariffs among ASEAN’s members with the assumption that if tariffs are lower or zero, there should be an increase in intra-trading value among ASEAN members. This study examines whether the implementation of the AFTA has had any impact on Indonesia’s export performance and ‘behind the border’ constraints contribution in Indonesia’s exports such as customs administrations. The study uses the gravity model approach with a stochastic frontier analysis which is different from previous research about Indonesia’s trading performance that uses OLS estimation. The results show that, empirically, GDP, distance, population, exchange rate, and membership in ASEAN significantly affect Indonesia’s trading with partner country. Furthermore, stochastic frontier analysis’ results show that ‘behind the border’ constraints decrease overtime. However, Indonesia’s exports is under trade with all ASEAN countries which indicates the low utilisation of AFTA. On the other hand, Indonesia’s exports are over trade with China and almost at optimal level of exports with the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. The implication of this study is that the Indonesian government should promote more exports with ASEAN countries to accomplish the objectives of the AFTA declaration two decades ago.

DAYA SAING DAN PERAN PEMERINTAH DALAM MENINGKATKAN DAYA SAING KOMODITI KAKAO DI SULAWESI TENGAH Siti Yuliaty Chansa Arfah; Harianto .; Suharno .
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 11 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji daya saing komoditi kakao di Sulawesi Tengah dan melihat peran pemerintah dalam meningkatkan daya saing komoditi kakao. Data primer berasal dari observasi, wawancara dan kuesioner, sementara data sekunder berasal dari instansi terkait. Metode analisis menggunakan Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) dan analisis sensitivitas. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa nilai PCR Kabupaten Parigi Moutong 0,589 dan Kabupaten Sigi 0,396. Sedangkan nilai DRC Kabupaten Parigi Moutong 0,387 dan Kabupaten Sigi 0,319. Hal tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa usahatani komoditi kakao di Sulawesi Tengah memiliki daya saing, namun tidak menguntungkan secara ekonomi karena Sulawesi Tengah menghasilkan biji kakao yang tidak difermentasi akibatnya petani menerima harga rendah. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, pemerintah belum memberikan proteksi terhadap harga biji kakao dalam negeri melalui harga referensi biji kakao sehingga harga biji kakao didaerah penelitian masih tergolong rendah jika dibandingkan dengan harga di pasar internasional. Sementara terhadap input, pemerintah telah memberikan kebijakan subsidi kepada petani, namun implementasinya masih perlu perbaikan terutama terkait penyaluran dan pengelolaan bantuan agar merata. Kajian ini merekomendasikan masih diperlukan kebijakan pemerintah baik terhadap input maupun output untuk meningkatkan produktivitas, menurunkan biaya produksi dan menaikkan harga jual biji kakao, sehingga dapat meningkatkan daya saing biji kakao. The purpose of this study is to assess the competitiveness of cocoa in Central Sulawesi and to investigate the role of government in improving the competitiveness of cocoa. The primary data were generated through observation, interviews and some questionnaires. The secondary data were obtained from the agency or the institution related to the research. This study uses the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) and sensitivity analysis. The study found that the PCR value for Parigi Moutong district was 0.589 and Sigi district was 0.396. While, the DRC value for Parigi Moutong district was 0.387 and Sigi district was 0.319. This indicates that cocoa beans farming in Central Sulawesi has competitiveness, but not economically beneficial because Central Sulawesi produces unfermented cocoa beans consequently farmers receive low prices. Based on the results of the government's impact on output analysis, the government did not provide protection for domestic cocoa seed prices through the reference price of cocoa beans, consequently the price of domestic cocoa beans, particularly in the research area, was relatively low compared to the price of cocoa beans at the international market. Seen from the government policy on inputs, the government have provided subsidies to farmers but they need to improve the distribution and management of aid to be evenly distributed. It is necessary to set up good government policy on inputs and outputs in order to increase cocoa seed productivity, decrease production cost and increase the price which simultaneously can improve its competitiveness in the research location.

DAYA SAING, KINERJA PERDAGANGAN, DAN DAMPAK LIBERALISASI PRODUK KEHUTANAN Adrian Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 7 No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Produk kehutanan Indonesia telah diliberalisasi sejak tahun 2007, namun kinerja perdagangannya belum membaik. Hal ini terlihat dari 127 pos tarif produk yang dibina Kementerian Kehutanan, hanya 34 pos tarif yang mengalami surplus perdagangan, 62 pos tarif mengalami defisit. Sebanyak 13 pos tarif dari 62 pos tarif yang defisit merupakan bahan baku yang banyak digunakan oleh industri kehutanan nasional. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan Indeks Intra-Industry Trade dan Indeks Spesialisasi Perdagangan, serta hasil simulasi yang menggunakan GTAP GMig2, produk kehutanan yang memiliki daya saing tinggi adalah Pulp of Wood, jauh diatas daya saing produk Paper and Paper Board serta Woods and Article of Wood. Keterbatasan bahan baku menjadi penyebab utama gagalnya Indonesia untuk memanfaatkan liberalisasi perdagangan. Sebanyak 34 pos tarif yang surplus semenjak liberalisasi sebaiknya tetap diliberalisasi dan dijadikan produk ekspor utama. Adapun 13 pos tarif yang menjadi bahan baku utama industri nasional, meskipun mengalami defisit, sebaiknya tetap diliberalisasi. Sebanyak 49 pos tarif yang defisit dan tidak menjadi bahan baku utama sebaiknya diberlakukan trade remedies dan dijadikan produk sensitif. Since 2007 the forestry product has been liberalized, but its trading performance has not improved yet. From 127 product tariff lines fostered by the Ministry of Forestry, there are only 34 lines which gained trade surplus and 62 lines which experienced trade deficit. Out of 62 products tariff lines which experienced trade deficit, 13 products are raw materials which are widely used by forest industry. Based on the Intra-Industry Trade and Trade Specialization Indexes, as well as simulation results using the GTAP GMig 2, forestry product with high competitiveness is Pulp of Wood, far above the competitiveness of Paper and Paper Board and Woods and Articles of Wood. The limited availability of raw materials is the main cause of Indonesia’s failure to take advantage of trade liberalization. The 34 product tariff lines which experienced surpluses should remain liberalized and become the main export products. Although experiencing deficits, the 13 product tariff lines which are the main raw materials for the industrial sector should be continually liberalized, while the remaining 49 product tariff lines which are not key raw materials should be provided with trade remedies and they should be considered as sensitive products.

PEMASARAN PRODUK-PRODUK UKM PIK (PUSAT/PERKAMPUNGAN INDUSTRI KECIL) PULOGADUNG1 Sukarna Wiranta
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 4 No 2 (2010)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Small businesses in Indonesia have a critical role in national economy, judging from the number of companies and workers involved in the business. Based on the data from the Board of Statistics (CBS) in 2006, has shown that small and medium businesses in Indonesia were 48.9 million principal or 99.9 percent of total business. The number of workers involved in small business was recorded about 50 million or 90 percent of the total employed by 2010. This study aims to evaluate the performances of small scale industries in PIK Pulogadung which uses criteria of effectiveness and efficiency of its owners/managers of the company. Based on the study, most of the respondents where classified as the traders (90%), while the crafter is only 5%. Thus, the PIK is likely the market of textiles and products of textiles (TPT), and footwear products. However, the channel distribution mostly directly from producer to consumers, although there were used big retailer network.

THE IMPACT OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON INDONESIA-US TRADE PERFORMANCE Septika Tri Ardiyanti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini mengkaji dampak volatilitas nilai tukar riil terhadap kinerja perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-Amerika Serikat (AS), dengan menggunakan data periode Q1:1990 sampai dengan Q3:2012. Studi ini menggunakan dua pendekatan untuk mengukur volatilitas nilai tukar riil, yaitu model Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH-1) dan metode Moving Average Standards Deviation (MASD). Untuk menguji hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel penelitian, digunakan prosedur Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif terhadap impor Indonesia dari AS tetapi tidak mempengaruhi ekspor Indonesia ke AS. Dengan demikian, semakin volatile nilai tukar maka volume impor Indonesia dari AS semakin rendah. Jika Indonesia ingin menjaga neraca perdagangan, maka dianjurkan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan nilai tukar yang mengambang dan terkendali. This sudy examines the impact of real exchange value volatilities on bilateral trade performance between Indonesia and the United States utilizing the data period between Q1:1990 to Q3 2012. This study deploys two approach to measure real exchange values volatilities, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH-1) and Moving Average standard Deviation methods. To test the long terms relationship between variables, it uses Autogressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The result shows that real exchange values volatilities has negative influence on Indonesia’s import from the United States but does not affect the Indonesia’s export to the United States. Hence, the more volatile an exchange value leads to a decrease of Indonesia’s import volume from the United States. If Indonesia attempts to balance its trade, it needs to keep intact monetary policies afloat and controllable.

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