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All Journal Media Statistika MATEMATIKA SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA Jurnal Gaussian Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Agus Rusgiyono

Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains Dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro

Author-ID : 366013

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Other

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ANALISIS INTEGRASI PASAR BAWANG MERAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM) (Studi Kasus: Harga Bawang Merah di Provinsi Jawa Tengah) Rizky Aditya Akbar; Agus Rusgiyono; Tarno Tarno
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 5, No 4 (2016): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Spatial market integration is the degree of closeness of relationship between the regional market with other regional market. Vertical market integration is the level of the relationship between a marketing agency with other marketing agencies in the marketing. Spatial market integration in onion prices at the wholesale level for the area of Brebes, Tegal, Pemalang, Semarang, Salatiga, Surakarta and can be analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see where the long-term relationship. Vertical market integration in onion prices in the wholesale and consumer levels for Tegal, Semarang and Surakarta can be analyzed using the Granger Causality. The data used are the monthly time series data from January 2010 until February 2016, where data must be stationary at the first difference. Based on Johansen cointegration test obtained their long-term relationship at all six of the region and can be used to analyze VECM method. Granger Causality used as a test of causality. From this study, it can be concluded the onion market in Central Java is not fully integrated spatial whereby if shocks in Brebes then be transmitted to the market in Pemalang, Semarang, Salatiga and Surakarta whereas if shocks occur in Tegal will be transmitted to Semarang, Salatiga and Surakarta. This occurs because Brebes as the central region producing onion and Tegal as many areas in need of onion. The existence of vertical integration only occurs in Semarang, although only one-way causality. Keywords: Market Integration, Johansen Cointegration Test, VECM, Granger Causality Test.

PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI MERAH MENGGUNAKAN MODEL VARIASI KALENDER REGARIMA DENGAN MOVING HOLIDAY EFFECT (STUDI KASUS: HARGA CABAI MERAH PERIODE JANUARI 2012 SAMPAI DENGAN DESEMBER 2019 DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT) Aulia Rahmatun Nisa; Tarno Tarno; Agus Rusgiyono
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 2 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Chili is one of the vegetable commodities that has high economic value, because of it’s role is large enough to supply domestic needs as an export commodity in the food industry. The price of red chilliesalways increase in the month of Eid al-Fitr. This is due to the large number of people who use Red Chili as food they consume. Shifting the moon during the Eid al-Fitr will form a seasonal system with different periods, which became known as the Moving Holiday Effect. One of the calendar variation models used to eliminate the Moving Holiday Effect and has a simple processing flow is the RegARIMA model. The RegARIMA model is a combination of linear regression with ARIMA. In the regression model the weighting matrix is used as an independent variable and the price of red chili as the dependent variable. The weight value is obtained based on the number of days that affect Eid, which is 14 days. Based on the analysis the red chili price data in West Java Province with the period of January 2012 to December 2018, the RegARIMA model (1.0,0)(0,1,1) 12 is the best model because it has the smallest AIC. Forecasting results in 2020 showed an increase in the price of red chili in West Java occurred in May to coincide with the Eid al-Fitr holiday which fell on May 24, 2020, the sMAPE value obtained by 24.96%. It means, the forecast still in the level of reasonableness.

SIMULASI STOKASTIK MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA GIBBS SAMPLING Anifa Anifa; Moch. Abdul Mukid; Agus Rusgiyono
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 1, No 1 (2012): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

One way to get a random sample is using simulation. Simulation can be done directly or indirectly. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is an indirectly simulation method. MCMC method has some algorithms. In this thesis only discussed about Gibbs Sampling algorithm. Gibbs Sampling is introduced by Geman and Geman at 1984. This algorithm can be used if the conditional distribution of the target distribution is known. It has applied on two casses, these are generation of bivariate normal random data and parameters estimation using Bayesian method. The data used in this research are the death of pulmonary tuberculosis in ASEAN in 2007. The results obtained are and with standard error for and .

IDENTIFIKASI LAMA STUDI BERDASARKAN KARAKTERISTIK MAHASISWA MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA C4.5 (Studi Kasus Lulusan Fakultas Sains dan Matematika Universitas Diponegoro Tahun 2013/2014) Bramaditya Swarasmaradhana; Moch. Abdul Mukid; Agus Rusgiyono
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Based on academics regulation No. 209/PER/UN7/2012, the study period of students in Diponegoro University has been scheduled for 4 years. In this study the graduation status of students that graduate under or equal to 4 years categorized as graduate on time, meanwhile students that graduate over 4 years categorized as graduate out of time. Hence, it is important to understand the profile of students who graduate on time and out of time based on gender, majors, GPA, organizational experience, part time experience, scholarship, students origin and pathways scholar. The purpose of this study is to identify those students profiles using Algorithm C4.5. Algorithm C4.5 contructs a decision tree that able to handle missing values, able to handle continues attribute and able to simplify the trees by pruning. The accuration of the Algorithm C4.5 is 84.475% and the number of the nodes are 20 nodes where 13 nodes are leaf nodes. The students profile that identified graduate on time are students of Physics who had received scholarship and a woman; students of Chemistry with GPA > 3.06; students of Statistics with GPA > 3.43 from SNMPTN also PSSB and students of Mathematics with GPA > 2.96. Keywords: Study Period, Algorithm C4.5, Decision Tree.

ANALISIS DISKRIMINAN FISHER POPULASI GANDA UNTUK KLASIFIKASI NASABAH KREDIT Ungu Siwi Maharunti; Moch. Abdul Mukid; Agus Rusgiyono
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 5, No 3 (2016): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Credit is the biggest asset carried out by a bank and become the most dominant contributor to the bank income. However, the activity to distribute the credit takes a risk which can influence health and continuance of bank business. The credit risk which potentially occurs can be measured and controlled by analyzing directly whichever the credit client categorized to. The credit risk categorized to current credit, in specific concern credit, less current credit, doubtful credit and bad credit based on Bank Indonesia Regulation No.: 7/2/PBI/2005. The independent variables used in this research are nominal credit, principal balance, in time being bank client, time period, and bank interest. Fisher multiple discriminant analysis is a method whose assumption equality of covariance matrices. The result from using the Fisher multiple discriminant analysis in data of credit client from bank “X” in Pati shows that variable principal balance, in time being bank client, time period, and bank interest significant to measure credit risk. The classification using the Fisher multiple discriminant analysis in data of credit client from bank “X” in Pati gives the accurate 64,33%. Keywords: credit, classification, fisher multiple discriminant analysis

PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN FUNGSI TRANSFER PADA PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN KABUPATEN WONOSOBO Siti Lis Ina Atul Hidayah; Agus Rusgiyono; Yuciana Wilandari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 4 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Rainfall is one of the things that affect agricultural production. The highest amount of rainfall will cause perturbation in the pollination of flowers and caused zalacca palm to produce fruits no season of the year. Zalacca palm is growing well in heavy rainfall area.. There are some factors which influence rainfall; those are: humidity, solar energy, wind direction and velocity as well as air temperature. The application of ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and multi input transfer function was intended to model the rainfall which would be forecasted based on the best model chosen. There were two kinds of variables used in this study. Those were rainfall as the output series while humidity and air temperature as the input series during January 2009 to October 2014. The result showed that ARIMA ([3], 1, [12]) had a fewer Schwart’z Bayesian Criterion (SBC) value 293.199 than multi input transfer function model (0,0,0) (0,1,0) with the result 906.9632.Keywords: Rainfall, ARIMA, Transfer Function

ANALISIS PENGELOMPOKAN DAERAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE NON-HIERARCHICAL PARTITIONING K-MEDOIDS DARI HASIL KOMODITAS PERTANIAN TANAMAN PANGAN (Studi Kasus Kabupaten/Kota Se-Jawa Tengah Tahun 2009 – 2013) Etik Setyowati; Agus Rusgiyono; Moch. Abdul Mukid
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 4 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Non-Hierarhical K-Medoids Partitioning is a clstering method for classifying objects based on the characteristics possessed by the object, wherein the object k randomly selected to be medoids is the center of the cluster. After medoids selected then other objects that have similarities with medoids made in one cluster. Medoids is the object which is considered to represent a cluster. Similarity between objects is calculated using euclidean distance. One application grouping method Non-Hierarhical K-Medoids Partitioning is to classify District in Central Java is based on the production of rice and pulses. Grouping Regency / City in Central Java using Non-Hierarhical Partitioning K-Medoids obtained information that rice production by Regency / City in Central Java can be grouped into seven clusters, but because of a case in 2010 and in 2011 the number of clusters that formed are two clusters, while the production of food crops by Regency / City in Central Java can be grouped into two clusters.Keywords: k-medoids, Non-Hierarhical, Euclidean distance, Similarities.

APLIKASI METODE PUNCAK AMBANG BATAS MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN DISTRIBUSI PARETO TERAMPAT DAN ESTIMASI PARAMETER MOMEN-L PADA DATA CURAH HUJAN (Studi Kasus : Data Curah Hujan Kota Semarang Tahun 2004-2013) Tyas Estiningrum; Agus Rusgiyono; Yuciana Wilandari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 1 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

The rainfall with very high intensity cause a lot of problem like flood, landslide and be a factor restricting of flight aircraft at the airport. One of the methods that can be use to analyze such extreme events is Peak Over Threshold (POT) with distribution approach Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) include in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). L-Moment method used for estimation of scale and shape parameter from GPD. In this research, data used is daily rainfall data of the Semarang city in 2004-2013 that recorded at the Meteorological Station of Class II Ahmad Yani Semarang. Daily rainfall data is analyzed each year during the rainy season. Result of analysis of the data shows rainfall there are heavy tail that indicates there is a possibility of occurrence extreme value. Return level obtained indicated occurrence of precipitation with very high intensity for the period of rainy season in 2006/2007, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012, 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 with intensity of rainfall 117,1905730 mm/day, 118,6389421 mm/day, 106,5032441 mm/day, 107,2133094 mm/day, 108,2262353 mm/day dan 111,2356887 mm/day.Keyword : Rainfall, Peak Over Threshold, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Extreme Value Theory, L-Moment, Return level.

PERHITUNGAN DAN ANALISIS PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO (PDRB) KABUPATEN/KOTA BERDASARKAN HARGA KONSTAN (Studi Kasus BPS Kabupaten Kendal) Fitriani Fitriani; Agus Rusgiyono; Triastuti Wuryandari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 2, No 2 (2013): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is technical term that always we heard in the civil government or in the public society. According to Statistics Indonesia, GRDP is total number of added value who producting by effort unit in that domestic area. GRDP is one of economics growth indicator in the domestic area. If GRDP is higher, then people economics prosperity must be high too, and do also that opposite. GRDP contains of 2 methods, that is GRDP at Current Market Prices and GRDP at Constant Prices. In this report will discuss about GRDP at Constant Prices with GRDP the Kendal Regency at 2000 Constant Prices in 2010 for example. Arranging GRDP at Constant Prices has purpose to find out economics condition from year to year by discern the GRDP every year. The methods to arranging GRDP at Constant Prices are revaluasi, ekstrapolasi, and deflasi. After doing the accounting by Statistics Indonesia, we obtainable GRDP the Kendal Regency at Constant Prices in 2010 in million rupiahs is 5.394.079,31. And according the analysis, GRDP from 1983 to 2011 show the linear graph that has model GRDP = -986933 + 220901 (X). This model, can use to forecasting for GRDP the Kendal Regency at Constant Prices over the next years.

ANALISIS MODEL PASIEN RAWAT JALAN RUMAH SAKIT KARIADI DENGAN PENDEKATAN POISSON-EKSPONENSIAL Dwi Ispriyanti; Sugito Sugito; Agus Rusgiyono
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 7, No 1 (2014): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

In daily activities, we often face in a situation of queuing. Most people have experiences in a queuing situation or a waiting situation . The queuing can be found easily in a human life. For example is the queuing in the Kariadi Hospital. The Queuing occur from the registration to the service stage. Similarly, in ambulatory patients of Kariadi Hospital, so it is necessary to analyze the queuing effectivity, whether the queueing system is optimal or not. One of the statistical methods to analyze the things mentioned above are queuing theory. This research is used to analyze the queuing service system at the Kariadi hospital Keywords: Kariadi Hospital, The Queuing

Co-Authors Abdul Hoyi Abdul Hoyyi Agustina Sunarwatiningsih Alan Prahutama Alan Prahutama Andreanto Andreanto Anggita, Esta Dewi Anifa Anifa Anindita Nur Safira ANNISA RAHMAWATI Annisa Rahmawati Arief Rachman Hakim Aulia Putri Andana Aulia Rahmatun Nisa Bagus Arya Saputra Bayu Heryadi Wicaksono Bellina Ayu Rinni Besya Salsabilla Azani Arif Bramaditya Swarasmaradhana Budi Warsito Dede Zumrohtuliyosi Dermawanti Dermawanti Desy Tresnowati Hardi Di Asih I Maruddani Diah Safitri Diah Safitri Dian Mariana L Manullang Dini Anggreani Diyah Rahayu Ningsih Dwi Asti Rakhmawati Dwi Ispriyansti Dwi Ispriyanti Eis Kartika Dewi Ely Fitria Rifkhatussa'diyah Enggar Nur Sasongko Etik Setyowati Etik Setyowati, Etik Farisiyah Fitriani fatimah Fatimah Febriana Sulistya Pratiwi Feby Kurniawati Heru Prabowo Fitriani Fitriani Hana Hayati Hanik Malikhatin Hanik Rosyidah, Hanik Hasbi Yasin Hasbi Yasin Hildawati Hildawati Hindun Habibatul Mubaroroh Ika Chandra Nurhayati Ilham Muhammad Imam Desla Siena Inas Husna Diarsih Iwan Ali Sofwan Kevin Togos Parningotan Marpaung Listifadah Listifadah M. Afif Amirillah M. Atma Adhyaksa Marthin Nosry Mooy Maryam Jamilah An Hasibuan Maulana Taufan Permana Merlia Yustiti Moch. Abdul Mukid Moch. Abdul Mukid Muhammad Rizki Muhammad Taufan Mustafid Mustafid Mustafid Mustafid Mustofa, Achmad Nabila Chairunnisa Nor Hamidah Noveda Mulya Wibowo Novie Eriska Aritonang Nur Khofifah Nur Walidaini Octafinnanda Ummu Fairuzdhiya Puji Retnowati Puspita Kartikasari Putri Fajar Utami Rengganis Purwakinanti Revaldo Mario Ria Sulistyo Yuliani Riana Ikadianti Riszki Bella Primasari Rita Rahmawati Rita Rahmawati Rizal Yunianto Ghofar Rizky Aditya Akbar Rosita Wahyuningtyas Rukun Santoso Salsabila Rizkia Gusman Setiyowati, Eka Shella Faiz Rohmana Siti Lis Ina Atul Hidayah Sudargo Sudargo Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sugito - Sugito Sugito Sugito Sugito Suparti Suparti Suparti Suparti Susi Ekawati sutimin sutimin Tarno Tarno Tarno Tarno Tarno Tarno Tatik Widiharih Tatik Widiharih Tiani Wahyu Utami Tika Dhiyani Mirawati Tika Nur Resa Utami, Tika Nur Resa Titis Nur Utami Tri Ernayanti Tri Yani Elisabeth Nababan Triastuti Wuryandari Triastuti Wuryandari Tyas Ayu Prasanti Tyas Estiningrum Ulfi Nur Alifah Ungu Siwi Maharunti Uswatun Hasanah Vierga Dea Margaretha Sinaga Viliyan Indaka Ardhi Winastiti, Lugas Putranti Yogi Isna Hartanto Yuciana Wilandari Yuciana Wilandari Yuciana Wilandari

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