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METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING EVENT BASED (ESEB) DAN METODE WINTER’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WES) UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG TIBA DI PELABUHAN PENYEBERANGAN GORONTALO Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta; Nurwan, N.
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 13 No 3 (2019): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : MATHEMATIC DEPARTMENT, FACULTY OF MATHEMATICS AND NATURAL SCIENCES, UNIVERSITY OF PATTIMURA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (146.797 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol13iss3pp197-202ar935

Abstract

Forecasting the number of passengers can be a consideration for managers of Gorontalo Crossing Port regarding the provision of tickets. The number of passengers can be influenced by certain seasonal or special events. To see the special events that affect the number of passengers arriving at Gorontalo Crossing Port, the forecasting method used is the Exponential Smoothing Event Based (ESEB) method. The seasonal influences can be known through historical data patterns and using the Winter’s Exponential Smoothing (WES) method. After compared, the ESEB method is a better method of forecasting the number of arriving passengers at Gorontalo Crossing Port because it has a smaller MAPE value than the WES method.
Pendekatan Goal Programming untuk Rute Pengangkutan Sampah Kuka, Fatra; Katili, Muhammad Rifai; Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta
MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology Vol 6, No 1 (2021): JULY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30651/must.v6i1.6349

Abstract

Saat ini masalah sampah telah menjadi masalah serius bagi semua lapisan masyarakat termasuk pemerintah daerah. Hal ini dipengaruhi oleh tingginya produktivitas manusia, pertambahan jumlah penduduk, dan ketersediaan ruang hidup manusia yang terbatas. Meningkatnya jumlah sampah yang dihasilkan dari hari-kehari dapat menimbulkan permasalahan yang serius, karena sampah sering terjadi tanpa disadari oleh penduduknya sendiri. Satu masalah dalam pengelolaan sampah adalah masalah pengangkutan sampah dari Tempat Pembuangan Sementara (TPS) ke Tempat Pembuangan Akhir (TPA). Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengoptimalkan rute pengangkutan sampah di Kota Gorontalo.  Dalam penelitian, digunakan pendekatan Goal Programming untuk memformulasikan model dan mengoptimalkan rute dengan memperhatikan biaya, waktu, jarak, serta banyaknya pelanggan yang dapat terlayani.  Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa rute pengangkutan sampah dapat dioptimalkan dengan pendekatan Goal Programming. Adapun rute optimal dari masing-masing komponen yaitu biaya, waktu, jarak, serta banyaknya pelanggan yang dapat terlayani diperoleh hasil yaitu: 16 rute dengan 131 node, total biaya bahan bakar keseluruhan kendaraan Rp. 1.648.000,  yang membutuhkan waktu 128 jam per hari. Setelah menggunakan Goal Programming, node yang dapat dikunjungi sebanyak 127 node dengan total biaya bahan bakar minimum sebesar 22,10% per hari dengan waktu tempuh perjalanan 11 jam dan total jarak tempuh keseluruhan kendaraan 240,43 KM.
PENDEKATAN MODEL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) UNTUK MERAMALKAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI PROVINSI GORONTALO HARIYATI H. USMAN; ISMAIL DJAKARIA; MUHAMMAD REZKY FRIESTA PAYU
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 1, No 1 (2020): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statictics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v1i1.5408

Abstract

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a simultaneous equation modeling used to construct forecasting systems from interrelated time-series data. This study intends to predict factors that significantly influence inflation in the province of Gorontalo. Moreover, the data used in this study involved inflation data and factors that influence inflation every month in the province in the period of January 2009 - December 2018. The results of inflation forecasting in Gorontalo in 2019 show that at the beginning of 2019, the inflation was considered to be very low at around -0.48% to -0.40%. However, the inflation surged in March with -0.25% (the highest inflation rate). The percentage decreased to -0.30% and -0.33% in April and May. After the decline in April and May, in the middle of the year (June) inflation returned to -0.31% and did not experience a significant change until the end of the year, which was still in the range of -0.32%. The accuracy of the prediction results seen in the MAPE value from out sample data of variables Y1 to Y8 is on the average below 10%, indicating that VAR is a significant forecasting model.
PERBANDINGAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE DAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DARI HOLT DALAM MERAMALKAN NILAI IMPOR DI INDONESIA YULINAR I. AJUNU; NOVIANITA ACHMAD; MUHAMMAD REZKY FRIESTA PAYU
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 1, No 1 (2020): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statictics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v1i1.5393

Abstract

As a form of purchased goods from other state’s imports have impacts both positive and negative to the states’s condition; therefore, prediction is required. Employing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods, this study intends to identify which of the methods is the most accurate to predict Indonesia’s import value.  The ARIMA method stage involved: data ploting, data stasioneriation, temporary model identification, parameter estimation, test residual assumption, and prediction. Moreover, the Holt’s DES method involved: data plotting, initial value determination, optimal parameter identification, Level Lt and Trend Tt value quantification, andprediction. The result shows that ARIMA method is the most accurate method to predict Indonesia’s import value.
METODE SIMULASI HISTORIS UNTUK PERHITUNGAN NILAI VALUE AT RISK PADA PORTOFOLIO DENGAN MODEL MARKOWITZ I Wayan Eka Sultra; Muhammad Rifai Katili; Muhammad Rezky Friesta Payu
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi EULER: Volume 9 Issue 2 December 2021
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/euler.v9i2.11518

Abstract

A portfolio concerns the formation of the composition of multiple assets to obtain optimum results. At the same time, Value at Risk is a technique in risk management to measure and assess parametrically (variant and co-variant), Monte-Carlo, and historical simulation. This research employed historic simulation because normal distribution is not required from returns and is a Value at Risk calculation model that is determined by the past value on produced return asset, in which this research aimed to determine the Markowitz model positive shares and Value at Risk in the portfolio by using historical simulation. The Markowitz model found eight shares with positive expected returns, which are as follows: BBCA, BBRI, BRPT, EXCL, ICBP, INDF, MNCN, and TPIA. The BBCA has the most significant exposure of all the shares with the amount of Rp 2.287.200.440.000, while the TPIA has the smallest exposure of all the shares with the amount of Rp 58.899.375.000. Further, the EXCL has the largest VaR with the amount of Rp 236.189.538.497, while the TPIA and ICBP had no VaR losses because the VaR of TPIA and ICBP is Rp 0 and Rp -1.407.719.893, respectively, along with the INDF as the share with the smallest VaR of Rp 18.513.213.620. The most significant exposure average is Rp 719.246.318.375, while the largest VaR average is Rp 76.827.608.341,3. As long as the VaR did not exceed the exposure value, the investors will be safe and have no loss.
OPTIMASI PENJADWALAN WAKTU KERJA MENGGUNAKAN INTEGER PROGRAMMING Windra Tahir; Djihad Wungguli; Muhamad Rezky Friesta Payu
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi EULER: Volume 7 Issue 2 December 2019
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/euler.v7i2.10343

Abstract

Scheduling workers is one of the problems faced by every company. The regulations set by the company, the availability of the number of workers, and the division of labor are the determining factors in the scheduling system. This worker scheduling problem can be modeled as an Integer Programming problem. Integer Programming is an optimization technique with linear objective functions, linear constraint functions, and integer variables. This paper discusses the formulation of worker scheduling problems in the form of Integer Programming with workers in companies engaged in the production of Crumb Rubber with the objective function of minimizing the number of workers employed. The next model is implemented using the help of LINGO 11.0 software. The implementation results show that the model is able to produce optimal employee schedules.
Pemodelan Pneumonia Berat Menggunakan Regresi Zero Inflated Negative Binomial di Gorontalo Novianita Achmad; Muhammad Rezky Friesta Payu; Yolanda Rahim
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi EULER: Volume 10 Issue 1 June 2022
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/euler.v10i1.13990

Abstract

In certain cases, the response variable has an excess zero that causes overdispersion. Therefore, to overcome overdispersion because excess zero Zero-inflated negative binomial regression can be used. The purpose of this study is to apply Zero inflated negative binomial regression to model the case of severe pneumonia in Bone Bolango and on the city of Gorontalo. Based on the result of ZINB Regression, it was found that there are 3 (three) factors that are significant that is ASI, Vitamin A, and low birth weight.
Implementasi Teori Konstruktivisme Dalam Pembelajaran Matematika Di Rumah Untuk Siswa Menengah Pertama Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Di Desa Huyula Kecamatan Randangan Kabupaten Pohuwato Evi Hulukati; Muhammad Rezky Friesta Payu
Jurnal Sibermas (Sinergi Pemberdayaan Masyarakat) Vol 10, No 2 (2021): Jurnal Sbermas (Sinergi Bersama Masyarakat)
Publisher : Univeristas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/sibermas.v10i2.9214

Abstract

Esensi dari para ahli mengantarkan model pembelajaran konstruktivisme menjadi pilihan yang tepat dalam menjalankan proses pembelajaran matematika di masa pandemi, hal ini dikarenakan konstruktivisme merupakan suatu model pembelajaran yang menjadikan siswa sebagai peserta didik aktif untuk membangun sendiri pengetahuannya. Melatih mahasiswa mengimplementasikan kegiatan Tridharma Perguruan Tinggi yaitu Pendidikan dan Pengajaran, Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat dalam waktu yang bersamaan. Di mana pada kegiatan ini mahasiswa adalah Tutor untuk masyarakat dalam rangka pembuatan media dan pada saat bersamaan mahasiswa melakukan penelitian serta berinteraksi dengan masyarakat melalui kegiatan pendataan dan pelatihan, melatih mahasiswa agar memiliki komitmen terhadap tujuan KKN yang ditujukan untuk memberikan pelayanan yang berkualitas pada individu, keluarga dan komunitas/masyarakat dan mendorong partisipasi mahasiswa untuk mengaplikasikan program pemerintah di masyarakat, Mendorong partisipasi masyarakat agar turut aktif dalam proses pemanfaatan bahan bekas dalam penyediaan media pembelajaran untuk mengenalkan konsep matematika awal pada masa pandemi dan meningkatkan pengetahuan dan pemahaman masyarakat tentang arti penting dari model pembelajaran dalam mengenal konsep matematika. Adapun yang mejadi hasil dari kegiatan ini adalah Luaran praktis Terimplementasinya model pembelajaran konstruktivisme dalam pembelajaran matematika pada siswa di desa Huyula Kab. Pohuwato dan Luaran wajib yaitu laporan hasil pelaksanaan KKN, catatan harian kegiatan, catatan keuangan, laporan kegiatan mahasiswa, Publikasi media massa.
Pendampingan Kesehatan Masyarakat melalui Pembuatan Apotek Hidup Desa Dunggala, Kec. Batudaa, Kab. Gorontalo Muhammad Rezky Friesta Payu; Abdul Wahidin Nuayi
Jurnal Sibermas (Sinergi Pemberdayaan Masyarakat) Vol 11, No 3 (2022): Jurnal Sibermas (Sinergi Bersama Masyarakat)
Publisher : Univeristas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/sibermas.v11i3.12235

Abstract

This KKN-Thematic Activity Program aims as an effort to improve health in the village of Dunggala especially during the Covid-19 pandemic to minimize / reduce and break the chain of spread of Covid-19. In the current pandemic, sufficient and good immunity is needed. Traditional medicine plays a role in maintaining the body's immunity. When compared to chemical drugs, folk remedies tend to be safer because the active substances in folk remedies are lower than those of chemical drugs. Therefore, the cultivation of medicinal plants is considered important. The method used in the KKN-Thematic program is the provision of examples of making live pharmacies and community development through socialization. This activity was held in Dunggala Village, Batudaa Subdistrict, Gorontalo Regency, and was integrated with Real Work Lecture (KKN), Research and Community Service Institute (LPPM) of Gorontalo State University (UNG) in 2021. This activity is supported directly by the Dunggala Village apparatus, led by the Dunggala Village Chief as a partner in this program.
MAX-PLUS ALGEBRA MODEL ON INAPORTNET SYSTEM SHIPS SERVICE SCHEME Nurwan Nurwan; Muhammad Rezky F. Payu
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (735.991 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss1pp147-156

Abstract

Queues are often found in public service providers, including port services. Therefore, the InaPortNet scheme was developed to facilitate and minimize queues in and out of ships. Also, service performance was optimized through behavior analysis and queuing system stability. This study focused on designing the max-plus algebra model and time estimation on the incoming ship service scheme. The results showed that the InaPortNet system is useful for modeling. Furthermore, the max-plus algebra matrix is used to obtain an estimated service time from registration to the ship docking process at the port. However, further study needs to be carried out by scheduling the max-plus algebraic matrix in order to analyze the behavior and stability of the queuing system