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PERAMALAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE TIME SERIES DENGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN HOLT-WINTERS Sulaiman, Agus; Juarna, Asep
Jurnal Ilmiah Informatika Komputer Vol 26, No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Gunadarma

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35760/ik.2021.v26i1.3512

Abstract

Beberapa penyebab terjadinya pengangguran di Indonesia ialah, tingkat urbanisasi, tingkat industrialisasi, proporsi angkatan kerja SLTA dan upah minimum provinsi. Faktor-faktor tersebut turut serta mempengaruhi persentase data terkait tingkat pengangguran menjadi sedikit fluktuatif. Berdasarkan pergerakan persentase data tersebut, diperlukan sebuah prediksi untuk mengetahui persentase tingkat pengangguran di masa depan dengan menggunakan konsep peramalan. Pada penelitian ini, peneliti melakukan analisis peramalan time series menggunakan metode Box-Jenkins dengan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dan metode Exponential Smoothing dengan model Holt-Winters. Pada penelitian ini, peramalan dilakukan dengan menggunakan dataset tingkat pengangguran dari tahun 2005 hingga 2019 per 6 bulan antara Februari hingga Agustus. Peneliti akan melihat evaluasi Range Mean Square Error (RMSE) dan Mean Square Error (MSE) terkecil dari setiap model time series. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, ARIMA(0,1,12) menjadi model yang terbaik untuk metode Box-Jenkins sedangkan Holt-Winters dengan alpha(mean) = 0.3 dan beta(trend) = 0.4 menjadi yang terbaik pada metode Exponential Smoothing. Pemilihan model terbaik dilanjutkan dengan perbandingan nilai akurasi RMSE dan MSE. Pada model ARIMA(0,1,12) nilai RMSE = 1.01 dan MSE = 1.0201, sedangkan model Holt-Winters menghasilkan nilai RMSE = 0.45 dan MSE = 0.2025. Berdasarkan data tersebut terpilih model Holt-Winters sebagai model terbaik untuk peramalan data tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia.
The Meaning of Jihad in Abu Obaida's Oration on The Palestinian Conflict Sulaiman, Agus; Al Anshory, Abdul Muntaqim; Hasaniyah, Nur
Al-Muyassar: Journal of Arabic Education Vol 3, No 2 (2024): Al-Muyassar: Journal of Arabic Education
Publisher : Prodi Pendidikan Bahasa Arab, Universitas Muhammadiyah Tangerang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This article examines the meaning of jihad conveyed in Abu Obaida's oration during the conflict in Palestine. The research background covers the historical and political context of the region, as well as the relevance of Abu Obaida's role in inspiring resistance movements. The purpose of this study is to analyze Abu Obaida's understanding of jihad to Hamas forces, Palestinians, Muslims, Arab leaders, the World Security Council (UN) and Jihad through social media. The oration explained the social and political factors that influenced his views, as well as encouraged the impact of his oration on the movement in Palestine. The research methods used were the analysis of the content of Abu Obaida's oration, the study of related literature, and the opinions of historical and political experts. The data were analyzed qualitatively to understand the context, meaning, and implications of Abu Obaida's oration. The results showed that Abu Obaida interpreted jihad as a struggle for justice, liberation, and the rights of the Palestinian people. This understanding is reflected in the historical context and political conflicts facing Palestine. His oration succeeded in mobilizing and inspiring his audience, strengthening the spirit of resistance. The conclusion of this article presents a comprehensive overview of the meaning of jihad in the context of the Palestinian conflict through Abu Obaida's oration. This understanding provides deep insight into the factors shaping jihadist views in the conflict and can be a foundation for understanding the dynamics of movements in the region.
Skinophile: The Art Of Skincare Selection With Haar Wavelet Wibisono, Giovanni; Setiawan, Johan; Sulaiman, Agus
International Journal of Science, Technology & Management Vol. 4 No. 6 (2023): November 2023
Publisher : Publisher Cv. Inara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46729/ijstm.v4i6.960

Abstract

In this study, a mobile application has been developed with the primary objective of classifying facial skin types to facilitate the selection of appropriate skincare products tailored to individual skin needs. The motivation behind this research stems from the widespread issue of individuals being unaware of their specific skin types, which often leads to suboptimal skincare routines and, in some cases, adverse effects such as skin dullness and damage. To address this challenge, a comprehensive problem-solving approach has been adopted. The methodology encompasses the utilization of the Haar Wavelets method for facial image feature extraction, complemented by the application of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for precise skin type classification. Face Recognition technology has also been integrated to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the classification process.In terms of system development, an Agile methodology has been employed, facilitating swift and cost-effective project completion. This agile approach ensures the development process is efficient, reducing both time and financial resources.The mobile application developed for this purpose utilizes the Python programming language, specifically incorporating the PyWavelets library. The culmination of this research effort is a user-friendly mobile application that enables users to capture their facial images. Subsequently, the application employs advanced algorithms to identify their specific skin type, providing personalized recommendations for suitable skincare products and routines. This innovative solution aims to empower individuals with the knowledge and tools necessary to enhance the effectiveness of their skincare regimen, ultimately promoting healthier and more radiant skin.
COMBINATION OF BAGHDADIYAH AND ADZ-DZIKRA MEDIA IN ARABIC LEARNING MEDIA AT SDPT ULUL ABSHOR SEMARANG Sulaiman, Agus; Al Anshory, Abdul Muntaqim; Hasaniyah, Nur; Hasyim, Muhammad
Abjadia : International Journal of Education Vol 9, No 2 (2024): Abjadia
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/abj.v9i2.27918

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effectiveness of the use of a combination of Baghdadiyah and Adz-Dzikra media in Arabic language learning at SDPT Ulul Abshor Semarang. Baghdadiyah media is used to help students recognize and understand the shape and pronunciation of Arabic letters, while Adz-Dzikra media facilitates students to practice writing Arabic letters, words, and sentences directly. The research method used is a case study with a qualitative approach. Data were collected through observation, interviews, and documentation during the Arabic language learning process at SDPT Ulul Abshor. Data analysis was carried out descriptively to identify the benefits and impacts of using the combination of media. The results of the study showed that the use of a combination of Baghdadiyah and Adz-Dzikra media proved to be effective in increasing the effectiveness of learning, as well as the ability to read and write Arabic sentences in students. Students are not only able to recognize Arabic letters, but also can compose and write simple sentences properly and correctly. In addition, the use of this combination of media also increases students' enthusiasm and motivation to learn Arabic. Based on the results of the study, it was concluded that the combination of Baghdadiyah and Adz-Dzikra media can be optimally utilized to improve the quality of Arabic language teaching at the elementary school level. Schools and teachers need to continue to develop the use of this combination of media in a more systematic Arabic learning plan.
Utilization of Kinemaster Application in Improving Learning Outcomes Sulaiman, Agus; Muklis, Fauzan; Patry, Him
International Journal of Language and Ubiquitous Learning Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Yayasan Pendidikan Islam Daarut Thufulah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70177/ijlul.v1i1.563

Abstract

Background. They are constrained by the network and do not have a HandPhone so that the video displayed during learning in the Zoom Meeting is sent back to the WhatSapp Group of class 3. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to find out what methods or media are suitable for students during the Covid-19 pandemic. Then the technology that can be utilized in the learning process so that educators and students can still meet virtually during the learning process. Method. The technique used in this investigation is an approximation technique by conducting a survey of the school before the online teaching process is carried out with the aim of seeing what kind of methods and media are used by educators at the elementary school. Then pay attention to the reaction of students at the first meeting of learning in this investigation. After that, analyze and find solutions so that learning runs effectively without discomfort and disinterest of students in the learning process. Results. In the first part, it can be recapitulated that 90% of learners cannot understand the learning provided through WhatSapp Group. In the second part, it can be recapitulated that 96% of students can understand the learning well, the learning process takes place through the Zoom Meeting application by displaying learning media in the form of videos created and edited using the KineMaster application. 4% of the learners experienced problems during the learning process. Conclusion. This investigation is detailed into 2 parts, in the first part, the application and the way of learning that is applied are not effective, in the second part all obstacles are corrected so that it can be concluded that the learning media created through the KineMaster application in the form of videos and shared through the Zoom Meeting application really causes a positive reaction to students.
Measuring ERP System Readiness with COBIT 2019 at IT Vendor Industry Putra, Muhamad Calvin Syah; Wiratama, Jansen; Sulaiman, Agus
G-Tech: Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Vol 8 No 3 (2024): G-Tech, Vol. 8 No. 3 Juli 2024
Publisher : Universitas Islam Raden Rahmat, Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33379/gtech.v8i3.4676

Abstract

The application of information technology that supports company business activities in IT services can be assessed for its IT governance capabilities using the COBIT 2019 framework, including security aspects. This research aims to determine the company's IT governance capabilities in the Managed Risk (APO12), Managed Security (APO13), and Managed Configuration (BAI10) domains to overcome security risks and provide recommendations for achieving a higher level of capability. This qualitative research uses data obtained through interviews and literature studies. Based on the results of capability measurements, the company received a score at level 2 to target levels 3 and 4, which indicates a gap of 1 to 2 levels. Recommendations include improving risk understanding, security awareness, security controls, and configuration management. Additionally, recommendations for ERP modules such as risk management, information security management, project management, configuration management, and quality management are proposed to address the identified issues.
Web-Based Assignment Information System Serves to Improve Economic Research at Universities and Public Services Susanto, Meitio; Johan, Monika Evelin; Sulaiman, Agus; Fianty, Melissa Indah
Jurnal Informatika Ekonomi Bisnis Vol. 6, No. 1 (March 2024)
Publisher : SAFE-Network

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37034/infeb.v6i1.824

Abstract

Community Outreach is one of the Tridharma of Higher Education which is the obligation of lecturers in Indonesia. The Institute for Research and Community Outreach (LPPM) at Universitas Multimedia Nusantara (UMN) is an institution that supports and facilitates Community Outreach activities, starting from submitting proposals, monitoring implementation, assignment letters, and completion reports. There are several procedures such as filling in data on a form which can be accessed using the Linktree link. This makes it difficult for LPPM admins to manually recap data by checking the forms that have been submitted. Even though there is a Research and Community Outreach (RCOS) website, there is no feature for Community Outreach services yet. This research develops the RCOS LPPM website at UMN by adding features for Community Outreach services. By using the Agile development method which focuses on developers, existing software, customers, and change requirements, the web-based information system created is expected to further complement the digitalization and automation of LPPM UMN service features, making it easier for both lecturers and admins in the process.
Argumentasi Saksi Ahli dalam Sidang Penistaan Agama oleh Basuki Tjahaja Purnama di Kepulauan Seribu Subuki, Makyun; Erowati, Rosida; Sulaiman, Agus
Dialektika: Jurnal Bahasa, Sastra, dan Pendidikan Bahasa dan Sastra Indonesia Vol 10, No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Department of Indonesia Language and Literature Teaching, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/dialektika.v10i2.31595

Abstract

Ahok's controversial statements on the Thousand Islands seem not only led to massive and repeated demonstrations, but also linguistic debates in the courtroom. This study aims to examine the arguments of linguists who give statements in the courtroom in response to Ahok's statement. As a qualitative study using discourse analysis as a method of analysis, this study uses a critical argumentation approach developed by Walton (2002 and 2006) to examine how the argument was constructed and evaluate the quality of the argument. The analysis in this study indicates that the opinion of linguists presented by public prosecutors is often inconsistent and not based on adequate linguistic evidence, not only inconsistent with other expert statements, but also with his own statement as a scientist. Conversely, the linguist presented by Ahok's counsel is more consistent and more able to present linguistic evidence more adequately.