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All Journal Jurnal Sosio Ekonomika Bisnis Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Bimbingan & Konseling Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Pendidikan Guru Sekolah Dasar BUAH HATI Jurnal Dedikasi Pendidikan Pesona Dasar : Jurnal Pendidikan Dasar dan Humaniora Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat) Journal of Medical Science; Jurnal Ilmu Medis Rumah Sakit Umum Daerah dr. Zainoel Abidin, Banda Aceh
Aida Fitri
Universitas Syiah Kuala
Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Public Health Other

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Journal : Jurnal Sosio Ekonomika Bisnis

 1 
PERAMALAN LAJU INFLASI BULANAN KOTA PADANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Aida Fitri; Samsul Anwar; Aja Fatimah Zohra; Muhammad Haikal Nasution
Jurnal Ilmiah Sosio-Ekonomika Bisnis Vol. 21 No. 2 (2018): Jurnal Ilmiah Sosio-Ekonomika Bisnis
Publisher : Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (375.105 KB) | DOI: 10.22437/jiseb.v21i2.6050

Abstract

The objective of this study is to predict the inflation rate (monthly) in Padang City for periods January 2018 to December 2020. In 2017, Padang City got an award as the city with the best TPID (Tim Pengendali Inflasi Daerah) performance in Indonesia followed by Kediri, Samarinda, Makassar and Ternate City. In order to help the TPID team in maintenance a low inflation rate, prediction of possible inflation that will be achieved in the following years is needed. Accordingly, the TPID team would have enough time to prepare several alternative actions to face an increasing inflation problem. We employ Triple Exponential Smoothing method, more known as Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing to predict the inflation rate in Padang City. We build 6 tentative models with various parameter combinations and choose the one that has the lowest MSE and RMSE values as the final model. The final model has three parameters: α, β and γ with different values of 0.06, 0.08 and 0.33 respectively. Using this final model, we predict that the monthly inflation rate in Padang City for periods January 2018 to December 2020 would be in the interval in between -1 to 1 which is considered low. More detail, the inflation in 2018, 2019 and 2020 are predicted being in the interval in between -0.51 to 0.64, -0.72 to 0.42 and -0.94 to 0.21 respectively.
Co-Authors Aja Fatimah Zohra Alfiati Syafrina Bukhari Bukhari Crystin Aysera Manullang Cut Nirmala Hayati Darmawati Darnius Said Diana Febrita Dila Syafira Ramadhini Edy Fradinata Fajriani Fajriani Fithria Hasniyati Hasniyati Hayati Hayati Intan Safiah Linda Vitoria Masyithah Audina Mislinawati Mislinawati Muhammad Haikal Nasution Mutiara Ara Ini Nova maulita sari Novia Erwandi Putri Nur Yasmin Rizki Kurniawati Rizkina Maulisa Samsul Anwar Suci Fitriani Syaiful Bahri Taat Kurnita Y Taat Kurnita Yeniningsih ZURNILA MARLI KESUMA