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Sukarna Sukarna
Universitas Negeri Makassar
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Journal : Inferensi

 1 
Factors Affecting the Covid-19 Risk in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia: A Bayesian Spatial Model Aswi Aswi; Sukarna Sukarna
Inferensi Vol 5, No 1 (2022): Inferensi
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v5i1.12527

Abstract

The transmission of Coronavirus diseases 2019 (Covid-19) grows continuously around the world. Although a number of researches of modelling Covid-19 cases have been conducted, there was limited research implementing the Bayesian Spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model. Factors affecting the Covid-19 risk especially population density and distance to the capital city have been studied, but the results are inconsistent and limited research has been done in Indonesia. This study aims to assess the most appropriate Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux models and examine factors that affect the risk of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi Province. Data on the number of Covid-19 cases (19 March 2020 - 31 January 2022), population density, and distance to the capital city were used for every 24 districts. Several criteria were used in choosing the most appropriate model. The results depict that Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux with hyperprior IG (1, 0.01) model with the inclusion of population density were preferred. It is concluded that a factor that significantly affects the number of Covid-19 cases is population density. There was a positive correlation between the population density and Covid-19 risk. Makassar city has the highest relative risk (RR) among other districts while Bone has the lowest RR of Covid-19.
Co-Authors Abdul Rahman Ahmad Zaki Aleytha Ilahnugrah Kurnadipare Alimuddin Tampa Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andin P Anggi Ananda Putri Aswi, Aswi Awi Awi Awi Awi Awi, Awi Bagus Sartono Bobby Poewanto Elma Selviana Darwis Farah Putri Firdausa Gita Tri Asfarina Hafilah Hardiono Harpiani Harpiani Hisyam Ihsan Irham Aryandi Basir Irma S Irwan Irwan J. Jusriadi Maya Sari Wahyuni Muh Nahdi Alim Asyhari Muh Tawil Muh. Hidayatullah Dwi Putra Muh. Ilham Muh. Irham Rosadi Muh. Irham Rosadi Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Ammar Naufal Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Fahmuddin N Nurwakia N. Nurhilaliyah N. Nurmah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nur Harisahani Nur Ridiawati Nur Wahidin Ashari Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurkaila Kaito Nurmah Nurmah Nurul Fadilah Syahrul Nurwan Nurwan Oktaviana Oktaviana R. Rahmat R. Rusli Rahmah Abubakar Rahman, Abdul Rahmat Syam Rahmat Syam Raihana Nurfitrah Rusli Sahlan Sidjara Serly Diliyanti Restu Ningsih Sitti Hasna Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Supriadi Yusuf Susanna Cramb Susanna Cramb Sutamrin Sutamrin Syafruddin s Syafruddin Side Syamsuddin Mas'ud Wahidah Sanusi Wahidah Sanusi Wahyudin Wahyudin Wahyudin