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Sukarna Sukarna
Universitas Negeri Makassar
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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

 1 
Pemodelan Spasial Bayesian dalam Menentukan Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kejadian Stunting di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Aswi Aswi; Sukarna Sukarna
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022): Volume 05 Nomor 01 (April 2022)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

Indonesia is a country with a high prevalence of stunting. One of the provinces in Indonesia that has a fairly high number of stunting cases is South Sulawesi Province. Research on stunting cases and their causes has been done. However, these researches have not implemented the Bayesian Spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model. This study aims to determine the factors that influence the incidence of stunting in South Sulawesi Province by implementing various Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux models with and without covariates included in the model. The results showed that the best model for modeling stunting cases in South Sulawesi Province in 2020 is the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux model with hyperprior Inverse-Gamma IG (0.5;0.0005) by including the covariates of the percentage of poverty and the percentage of children under five 0-59 months of malnutrition. The percentage of poverty and the percentage of children under five 0-59 months of malnutrition have a positive effect on the incidence of stunting. The higher the percentage of poverty and the percentage of children aged 0-59 months with malnutrition in an area, the higher the risk of stunting in that area. 50% of districts/cities in South Sulawesi Province are in the high-risk category of stunting. Parepare City is the city with the highest Relative Risk (RR) value for stunting, followed by Toraja and Enrekang Regencies. On the other hand, Wajo Regency is the district with the lowest RR, followed by Luwu Timur and Bone Regencies.
Solusi Model Perubahan Garis Pantai dengan Metode Transformasi Elzaki Maya Sari Wahyuni; Sukarna Sukarna; Muh. Irham Rosadi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 4 No. 2 (2021): Volume 04 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2021)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

The beach is a region that is often used for various human activities, however often these utilization efforts cause beach problems so that the shoreline changes. One way that can be used to determine changes in shoreline is to make a mathematical model. The shoreline change model shaped of partial differential equation can be solved analytically by using the Elzaki transform method. The Elzaki transform method is a form of integral transform obtained from the Fourier integral so that the Elzaki transform and its basic properties are obtained. Shoreline change in this research were affected by groyne. Solution of shoreline change model using Elzaki transform method is carried by applying the Elzaki transform to the shoreline change model to obtain a new shoreline change model, then applying the boundary value, then applying the inverse of Elzaki transform so obtained a solution shoreline change model. Based on the research result, it was found that there was a similiarity between the graphic patterns generated from the solution of shoreline change model using Elzaki transform method and the solution of shoreline change model using numerical method.
Pemetaan Kasus Tuberkulosis di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Tahun 2020 Menggunakan Model Bayesian Spasial BYM dan Leroux Aswi Aswi; Sukarna Sukarna; Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 4 No. 2 (2021): Volume 04 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2021)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that is one of the ten leading causes of death in the world. Indonesia is a country with the second-highest number of TB sufferers in the world. This study aims to identify areas with a high and low relative risk (RR) of TB by using the Bayesian Spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Besag-York-Molliѐ (BYM) and Leroux models. TB case data in every 24 districts/cities in South Sulawesi province in 2020 is used. The best model was selected based on three criteria, namely Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) and Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC). The results show that the Bayesian Spatial CAR BYM and CAR Leroux with hyperprior IG (0.5; 0.0005) are the best models that have the same RR value. Makassar City is the area with the highest RR value (1.70) which indicates that Makassar City has a TB risk 70% higher than the average. On the other hand, the Toraja district has the lowest TB risk (0.43) which indicates that Toraja has a TB risk 43% lower than the average.
Analisis Tingkat Kesejahteraan Masyarakat di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat Menggunakan Model Regresi Multivariat Rahmat Syam; Sukarna Sukarna; Nurmah Nurmah
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 3 No. 2 (2020): Volume 03 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2020)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

This study aims to determine the model of the relationship between the rate of economic growth, the level of Gross Domestic Product Regional each capita, and the Human Development Index for supporting variables base on multivariate regression analysis to analyze the level of public welfare in West Nusa Tenggara Province by selecting the best model using the KICC method. The supporting variables were life expectancy, unemployment rate, expenditure each capita, poverty level, and local income. The data was published by the Central Bureau of Statistics of West Nusa Tenggara Province on 2018. The result shows that there are three variables which have shown a positive impact on the public welfare in West Nusa Tenggara Province, namely life expectancy, expenditure each capita, and local income. However, the others have shown a negative impact. The relation between predictors and response simultaneously is = 0.999990324, it means that the data is explainable 99.99% by the model.
Co-Authors Abdul Rahman Ahmad Zaki Aleytha Ilahnugrah Kurnadipare Alimuddin Tampa Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andin P Anggi Ananda Putri Aswi, Aswi Awi Awi Awi Awi Awi, Awi Bagus Sartono Bobby Poewanto Elma Selviana Darwis Farah Putri Firdausa Gita Tri Asfarina Hafilah Hardiono Harpiani Harpiani Hisyam Ihsan Irham Aryandi Basir Irma S Irwan Irwan J. Jusriadi Maya Sari Wahyuni Muh Nahdi Alim Asyhari Muh Tawil Muh. Hidayatullah Dwi Putra Muh. Ilham Muh. Irham Rosadi Muh. Irham Rosadi Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Ammar Naufal Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Fahmuddin N Nurwakia N. Nurhilaliyah N. Nurmah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nur Harisahani Nur Ridiawati Nur Wahidin Ashari Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurhilaliyah Nurkaila Kaito Nurmah Nurmah Nurul Fadilah Syahrul Nurwan Nurwan Oktaviana Oktaviana R. Rahmat R. Rusli Rahmah Abubakar Rahman, Abdul Rahmat Syam Rahmat Syam Raihana Nurfitrah Rusli Sahlan Sidjara Serly Diliyanti Restu Ningsih Sitti Hasna Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Sudarmin Supriadi Yusuf Susanna Cramb Susanna Cramb Sutamrin Sutamrin Syafruddin s Syafruddin Side Syamsuddin Mas'ud Wahidah Sanusi Wahidah Sanusi Wahyudin Wahyudin Wahyudin