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The Effect of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Indonesia Stock Market Performance Darmawan, Indra; Siregar, Hermanto; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Manurung, Adler Haymans
Jurnal Organisasi dan Manajemen Vol. 16 No. 1 (2020)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Terbuka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (502.301 KB) | DOI: 10.33830/jom.v16i1.785.2020

Abstract

The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of crude oil price shocks on Indonesia stock market performance, represented by the composite index (IHSG). We used a vector error correction model (VECM) approach to observe the relationship between Brent crude oil price (BPO) and the seven stock market indices, including IHSG, and the relationship between IHSG and the six global stock market indices. Findings. The results show that the Brent crude oil prices cointegrated to the seven stock market indices, including IHSG, and IHSG cointegrated to the six global stock market indices. This finding proves that crude oil price shocks affect the Indonesia stock market performance directly through the co-integration mechanism between the crude oil price and IHSG and indirectly transmitted through the co-integration mechanism between IHSG and the global stock market indices.
Integrasi Pasar Kakao Biji Perdesaan Sulawesi Tengah dengan Pasar Dunia Yantu, M. R.; Juanda, Bambang; Siregar, Hermanto; Gonarsyah, Isang; Hadi, Setia
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 28, No 2 (2010): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jae.v28n2.2010.201-225

Abstract

EnglishThis study aims (i) to estimate transmission elasticity of cocoa bean prices at the world market to the rural markets in Central Sulawesi Province; (ii) to analyze the integration of cocoa beans markets; and (iii) to analyze the degree integration. Data used were time-series data from 1985 to 2008, and primary data from the farmers and the traders. The results showed that the transmission of cocoa beans prices was unstable.  Integration of cocoa bean price at rural markets to those in regency level was very weak and segmented.  Conversely, integration degree of the market at regency level with that of export was highly significant, especially in the long run.IndonesianPenelitian ini ditujukan untuk (i) mengestimasi elastisitas transmisi harga kakao biji dari pasar internasional sampai ke tingkat petani di perdesaan Sulawesi Tengah, (ii) menganalisis integrasi pasar kakao biji, dan (iii) menganalisis derajat integrasi tersebut.  Estimasi parameter ditempuh dengan pendekatan ekonometrik. Data yang digunakan berupa data panel dengan deret waktu 1985 – 2008 dan data primer dari hasil survei sampel rumah tangga petani dan pedagang kakao. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa  transmisi harga kakao biji berlangsung secara fluktuatif. Diperoleh pula temuan bahwa pasar kakao biji tingkat petani hingga ke kabupaten ternyata memiliki integrasi sangat lemah dan cenderung tersegmentasi. Di sisi lain, derajat integrasi pasar kakao biji tingkat kabupaten ke eksportir ternyata  cukup tinggi, terutama untuk integrasi pasar jangka panjang.
Dampak Kebijakan Harga Pangan dan Kebijakan Moneter terhadap Stabilitas Ekonomi Makro Ilham, Nyak; Siregar, Hermanto
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 25, No 1 (2007): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jae.v25n1.2007.55-83

Abstract

EnglishThe relatively high share of food expenses in household expenditure indicates that contribution of food prices to the inflation rate is still quite high.  Inflation and its fluctuations are important variables affecting macroeconomic stability. Therefore, stabilizing food prices, which could lead to a more stable inflation, might potentially result in a more stable macroeconomy.  Food price policy might play important role in stabilizing food prices; but could also disturb the stability if implemented improperly.  This paper aims at analyzing effects of food price as well as monetary policies on macroeconomic indicators.  For this analysis, quarterly data of the period 1980.1 to 2004.4 were utilized. The study used a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), from which Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyzes were carried out.  The results suggest that: (1) food price policy could not cause instability  of macroeconomy, and (2) food price policy could not affect the unemployment rate, while monetary policy could do.IndonesianMasih besarnya pangsa pengeluaran pangan pada sebagian besar kelompok masyarakat berarti bobot inflasi kelompok pangan terhadap inflasi masih cukup besar. Inflasi dan fluktuasinya dapat mempengaruhi stabilitas ekonomi makro. Jadi stabilitas harga pangan dan harga-harga di tingkat makro secara potensial dapat dilakukan dengan menerapkan kebijakan harga pangan. Namun, kebijakan harga pangan yang tidak tepat dapat juga menyebabkan ketidakstabilan ekonomi makro. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan harga pangan dan kebijakan moneter terhadap keseimbangan dan stabilitas indikator-indikator ekonomi makro. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder deret waktu triwulanan untuk periode 1980.1 - 2004.4. Analisis data menggunakan model VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) dan teknik IRF (Impulse Response Function). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan harga pangan tidak menyebabkan instabilitas ekonomi makro, sedangkan kebijakan moneter menyebabkan peningkatan angka pengangguran.
Factors Influencing Dividend Policy on Mining Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2011-2015 Ingrit, Ingrit; Siregar, Hermanto; Syarifuddin, Ferry
BISNIS & BIROKRASI: Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi dan Organisasi
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

The mining sector has an important role in economic development in Indonesia. Mining company has to have good responsibility to make investors trust in investing, especially in dividend policy. The dividend policy influenced by many factors such as micro and macroeconomics variables which influence investors to invest in mining companies. This research aims to examine the analysis of the current ratio, debt to equity ratio, return on assets, investment credit interest rate, exchange rate, mining stock price index and industrial production index toward the dividend policy. The samples used in this study are 10 mining companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2011 to 2015. The significance influence test of independent variables is using panel data regression model with significant level (α) of 1%. 5% and 10%. Classic assumptions testing are conducted in order to obtain the best results including normality test, multicolinearity test, and heterocedasticity test. The result shows that the current ratio, debt to equity ratio, return on assets, investment credit interest rate, mining stock price index and industrial production index significantly toward dividend payout ratio. The results also show that the exchange rate is not a significant toward dividend payout ratio.
Abnormal Returns and Trading Volume in the Indonesian Stock Market in Relation to the Presidential Elections in 2004, 2009, and 2014 Imelda, Imelda; Siregar, Hermanto; Anggraeni, Lukytawati
BISNIS & BIROKRASI: Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi dan Organisasi
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

Presidential election is considered as relevant information for stock market’s investors to make investment decision. The objective of this study is to examine differences in average abnormal return and trading volume activity on sectoral indices’ stocks before and after the presidential elections in 2004, 2009, and 2014. The research uses the event study method. The data are collected from the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The daily closing prices on sectoral indices used in this study consist of 120 days preceding and 30 days succeeding the elections. There is a strong evidence of differences in average abnormal return on Indonesian’s sectoral stock market before and after the presidential elections especially for the mining sector. However, the trading volume activities of the Indonesian’s sectoral stock market before and after the elections were statistically the same. The litigation from the last election results had no impact on most Indonesian’s sectoral stock, except for the financial as well basic industry and chemical sectors. The analysis concludes that the trade, services, and investment are the most stable sectors, while mining is the opposite one.
Asymmetric volatility and macroeconomic factors on Indonesian government bond returns Megasari, Debbie; Siregar, Hermanto; Syarifuddin, Ferry
Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan Vol 23, No 3 (2019): July 2019
Publisher : University of Merdeka Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26905/jkdp.v23i3.2613

Abstract

Macroeconomic are important variables influencing volatility in the bond market. Some of the challenges faced such as default risk, liquidity risk, interest rate risk, inflation risk, and exchange rate risk. This study is aimed at examining asymmetric volatility using the EGARCH model and at estimating macroeconomic variables which influence the return of Indonesian Government bonds. The asymmetric volatility can be measured by determining the best order value of the EGARCH model. Based on the findings of the study, EGARCH (2.1) is the best model for assessing volatility in short-term SUN returns, EGARCH (3.1) for medium-term SUN and EGARCH (2.3) for the long term. The asymmetric volatility pertains in the returns of short, medium and long-term government bonds. In addition, the negative information has a greater impact than positive information in the short, medium and long term. The deposit rate and return of the Composite Stock Price Index have a significant positive effect on short, medium and long term bond returns. The effective federal funds rate or FED interest rate has a significant positive effect on the return of short and long-term SUN bonds while in the medium term it has no effect. Exchange rates have a significant negative effect on short, medium and long term bond returns.JEL Classification: D13, I31, J22DOI: https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v23i3.2613
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP ADOPSI VARIETAS UNGGUL JAGUNG PUTIH DI KABUPATEN GROBOGAN-JAWA TENGAH Kadar, Laila; Siregar, Hermanto; Kumala Putri, Eka Intan
Informatika Pertanian Vol 25, No 2 (2016): Desember 2016
Publisher : Sekretariat Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (362.362 KB) | DOI: 10.21082/ip.v25n2.2016.p215-220

Abstract

Maize is the second basic food need after rice that is potential and has high economic value in increasing income of farmers and food diversification program. White maize, in particular, is an alternative staple food in Grobogan Regency. The superior variety is a component of technology that plays a prominent role to increase productivity, disease resistant, and environmentally suitable (specific location). The aim of the study was to determine the influential factors in the adoption of superior variety of white maize in order to achieve transfer of technology. The study was carried out in three villages of Grobogan Regency, Central Java: namely Sumber Jatipohon, Godan, and Karangasem. The locations were determined with purposive sampling and the number of respondents interviewed was 120 farmers (40 farmers in each village) between September-December 2015. Analyses of the data were descriptively and quantitatively using percentages, charts and tables with logistic regression. The results of this study showed that the interest of farmers to adopt new superior variety of white maize was quite good around 66.7 percent. Farmers’ interest toward superior variety may be considered high. While factors significantly influencing the adoption included income, knowledge or information on technology, agriculture extension support, pest, and availability of seeds. On the other hand, factors which were not significantly affecting the adoption included age, formal education, farmers’ experience, and land size.
STRATEGI PEMUNGUTAN PENERIMAAN PAJAK REKLAME KOTA BEKASI Ichsan, Aulia; Siregar, Hermanto; Soetarto, Endriatmo
Jurnal Manajemen Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 10 (2018): Edisi Khusus "Tatakelola Keuangan dan Investasi Daerah"
Publisher : Program Studi Manajemen Pembangunan Daerah. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen. IPB

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (362.739 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jurnal_mpd.v10i-.22697

Abstract

One of the efforts of Local Government in financing regional development is through local taxes. Bekasi City is a cross-trade City and its strategic location has great potential to be able to maximize local revenue through the local tax sector, e.g. advertisement tax. The purpose of this research was to determine the growth rate and the contribution of advertisement tax to local taxes, measure the effectiveness and efficiency of advertisement tax, and determine the strategy in the implementation of revenue advertisement tax collections. Analysis methods of this research includes calculation of growth and contribution ratio as well as effectiveness and efficiency ratio and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Results of this research show that the growth rate of advertisement tax in Bekasi City average 20.65% and its contribution to local taxes average of 3.52% with the average effectiveness rate 82.20% (“quite effective”) and the efficiency level 6.31% (“highly efficient”). It is suggested from the AHP results that the Local Government of Bekasi City should implement a strategy of improving the quality and quantity of human resources as well as a strategy of improving technical guidelines on advertisement tax collection.Keywords : advertisement tax, growth and contribution, effectiveness and  efficiency, strategy, Bekasi City.
STRATEGI PEMBIAYAAN TERHADAP PENGEMBANGAN PARIWISATA BERBASIS MASYARAKAT DI KOTA AMBON Latuconsina, Olivia CH; Syaukat, Yusman; Siregar, Hermanto
Jurnal Manajemen Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 5 No. 2 (2013)
Publisher : Program Studi Manajemen Pembangunan Daerah. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen. IPB

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (438.334 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jurnal_mpd.v5i2.24640

Abstract

Community-based tourism could increase local income and at the same time maintain the culture, arts and way of life of surrounding communities. The purpose of this research is to study the financing of community based tourism development in Ambon City. Methods used in this reseach are descriptive quantitative analysis, SWOT analysis, and QSPM analysis. Findings of the analysis are: 1) The role of government shoud be increased through friendly investment policy and sufficient government budget; 2) Increase in private financing done through the public private partnerships; 3) Communication, coordination and cooperation among local government and tourism entepreneurs are need to be improved; 4) Communities around the tourist objects can not yet utilize the potential of tourism as a source of their income so capacity building for them is a must; 5) Community can take advantage of the national program of tourism self empowerment (PNPM Mandiri Pariwisata) and “Kredit Usaha Rakyat” program to increase their welfare, and 6) There are six financing strategies for community-based tourism development in Ambon City that can be implemented in 2011-2016.Keywords: Ambon, Community-based tourism, Financing, Policy, Public Private PartnershipsABSTRAK Pariwisata berbasis kominitas dapat meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat setempat dan sekitarnya sekaligus memelihara budaya, kesenian dan cara hidup masyarakat di sekitarnya. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk mengkaji pembiayaan pengembangan pariwisata berbasis masyarakat di Kota Ambon. Metode yang digunakan yaitu analisis deskriptif kuantitatif, analisis SWOT, dan analisis QSPM. Hasil analisis yang ditemukan antara lain: 1) Perlu peningkatan peran pemerintah melalui kebijakan investasi dan anggaran yang cukup; 2) Peningkatan pembiayaan swasta melalui kemitraan sektor publik-swasta perlu dilakukan; 3) Komunikasi, koordinasi serta kerjasama antara pemerintah dan wirausaha pariwisata perlu ditingkatkan; 4) Komunitas di sekitar obyek wisata belum bisa memanfaatkan potensi pariwisata sebagai sumber pendapatan sehingga kapasitas pembangunan bagi komunitas perlu dilakukan; 5) Komunitas dapat mengambil keuntungan dari program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat pariwisata (PNPM Mandiri Pariwisata) dan program “Kredit Usaha Rakyat” untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat; dan 6) Terdapat 6 strategi pembiayaan terkait pengembangan pariwisata berbasis komunitas di Kota Ambon yang dapat diterapkan pada 2011-2016.Kata kunci: Ambon, Pariwisata Berbasis Komunitas, Pembiayaan, Kebijakan, Kemitraan Sektor Publik-Swasta
STRATEGI PENINGKATAN KUALITAS LAPORAN KEUANGAN BADAN LITBANG DAN INOVASI (KANTOR JAKARTA DAN BOGOR) Permadi, Hengki; Siregar, Hermanto; Ristiyanto, Nirwan
Jurnal Manajemen Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 8 No. 2 (2016)
Publisher : Program Studi Manajemen Pembangunan Daerah. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen. IPB

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (349.181 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jurnal_mpd.v8i2.24818

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe good quality of financial statements of the government can describe the good performance of governance management. The purpose of this study was to obtain a policy strategy to improve the quality of financial reports of Research, Development and Innovation Agency (RDIA) and to determine factors that influence the quality of financial report, and in the end could be hoped to get the better opinions of BPK. This study used questionnaires that distributed to respondents from technical unit of RDIA throughout Indonesia. SWOT and QSPM analysis methods were used in this study. The results of the study with SWOT analysis produced some priority strategy in the form of Strength-Opportunities combinations (SO). To get a better strategy, QSPM analysis was used with the results that RDIA should improve human resources capacity, especially for operator staffs that appropriate with educational background and enhancement of role and responsibilities of the leaders division on the financial statements as well. ABSTRAKLaporan keuangan pemerintah yang berkualitas baik dapat menggambarkan kinerja pengelolaan kepemerintahan yang baik. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh strategi kebijakan untuk meningkatkan kualitas laporan keuangan Badan Litbang dan Inovasi dan menentukan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kualitas laporan keuangan. Strategi peningkatan kualitas laporan keuangan dapat menghasilkan opini BPK RI yang lebih baik. Penelitian ini menggunakan kuesioner kepada responden dari satuan kerja lingkup Badan Litbang dan Inovasi seluruh Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis SWOT dan analisis QSPM. Hasil penelitian dengan metode SWOT menghasilkan beberapa strategi prioritas dari kombinasi Kekuatan-Peluang (SO). Untuk mendapatkan strategi yang lebih baik digunakan analisis QSPM dengan hasil strategi yang perlu dilakukan Badan Litbang dan Inovasi yaitu peningkatan sumber daya manusia terutama petugas operator sesuai kriteria dan pendidikan serta peningkatan peran dan tanggung jawab pimpinan terhadap laporan keuangan.
Co-Authors . Mahyuddin ., Harianto Abitur Asianto Adhitya Wardhana Adis Imam Munandar Adler H. Manurung Adler Haymans Manurung Affendi Anwar Agus Lukman Hakim Ahmad Aris, Ahmad Akhmadi Akhmadi Amzul Rifin Anak Agung Ketut Sudharmawan Andam Dewi Anny Ratnawati Aprilia Sukmawati Apriyana, Alfin Ardina Puspitasari Arham Rivai Ari Binuko Arief Darjanto Arief Daryanto Arief Daryanto Arif Imam Suroso Arif Imam Suroso Arif Naldi Astoeti Wahjoe Widiarti Aviliani Aviliani Azizah B D Nasendi Baida Soraya Bambang Juanda Basyid Ahmad Benar Darius Ginting Benny Kurniawan Bonar M Sinaga Bonar M Sinaga Bonar M. Sinaga Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Bronson Marpaung Bunasor Sanim Bungaran Saragih Bungaran Saragih D. S. Priyarsono D. S. Priyarsono Dahri Dahri Darmawan, Indra Darsono . Dedi Budiman Hakim Desi Maryanti Diana Septiningrum Diana Septiningrum, Diana Dodik Ridho Nurrochmat Dominicus Savio Priyarsono Dudi S. Hendrawan Dwi Haryono Dwi Suprastyo DWI SURYANTO Dyan Vidyatmoko Dyan Vidyatmoko E. Gumbira-Sa’id Eddi Wahyudi, Eddi Eduart Wolok Edwin Mahatir Muhammad Ramadhan Eka Intan Kumala Putri Eko Wahyu Nugrahadi Endah Murniningtyas Endah Murniningtyas Endang Suhendang Endriatmo Soetarto Eriyatno . Erlina Erlina Ernan Rustiadi Ervina Mela Dewi, Yandra Arkeman, Erliza Noor, Noer Azam Achsani Erwin Susanto Sadirsan Evi Lisna Evita H. Legowo Fahriyah Fahriyah Faizal Irvansyah Faizul Mubarok Fazri, Muhammad Ferry Syarifuddin Fitria Yuliani Gonarsyah, Isang Gustiyan Taufik Mahardika Hadi, Setia Hani Laksono Harahap, Muhammad Syafril Hardinsyah . Harianto . Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Hastori, . Hendro Sasongko Hendro Sasongko Heni Hasanah Hery Setiawan Heti Mulyati I Gusti Putu Wigena Ichsan, Aulia Idqan Fahmi Ilham, Nyak Ilham, Nyak Illah Sailah Iman Sugema Iman Widhiyanto Indra Gunawan Ingrit, Ingrit Joko S. Usman Joyo Winoto Kadar, Laila Kodrat Wibowo Kusnadi - Kustanto, Heru Kustanto, Heru Lala M Kolopaking Latuconsina, Olivia CH Limetry Liana Lukman M. Baga Lukytawati Anggraeni M Parulian Hutagaol M Parulian Hutagaol M. Ilham Riyadh M. Machfud M. Parulian Hutagaol M. Said Didu M. Syamsul Maarif Machmud, Musdhalifah MANGARA TAMBUNAN Mangara Tambunan Mangasa Augustinus Sipahutar, Mangasa Augustinus Manuwoto, Manuwoto Maulana, Tubagus NA Megasari, Debbie Minesa, Punti Moch Hadi Santoso Mohammad Nur Hadi Mudinillah, Adam Muhammad Arief Dirgantoro Muhammad Fazri Muhammad Fazri muhammad Firdaus Mulya E. Siregar Nadiah Hidayati Nancy Megawati Hariandja Nashwari, Inti Pertiwi nFN Sudradjat Nila Rifai Nugroho Setyo Utomo Nunung Nuryartono Nurlaila Firdani Fajri Nyak Ilham Oktovianus Pantjar Simatupang Parulian Hutagaol Perdana Wahyu Santoso Permadi, Hengki Petrus F.T.P. Tampubolon Pratikto Winardi Bakhram Prima Puspita Indra Murti Prima, Ghaniy Ridha R Marsuki Iswandi R Susila, Wayan Rachmad Hermawan Rahmanta Rahmanta, Rahmanta Rina Oktaviani Rina Oktaviani Rina Oktaviani Rina Oktaviani Rini Dwiyani Hadiwidjaja Riny Kusumawati Ristianto Pribadi Ristiyanto, Nirwan Ristiyanto, Nirwan Riyanto Riyanto Rizavia Mardhika Putri Roy Sembel Roy Sembel Safrida . Sahruddin Nasution Santun R.P. Sitorus Satria Prawira Dirga Setia Hadi Setiadi Djohar Setiawan, Andi Siti Aida Adha Taridala Sjafri Mangkuprawira Sri Hartoyo Sri Hartoyo Sri Mulatsih Stephen Thenu Sugeng Budiharsono Sugimin Pranoto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Suprehatin Surjono H. Sutjahjo Surya Abadi Sembiring Surya Abadi Sembiring Sutikno, Renaldo Prima Sutriono Edi Suwarno Suwarno Suwinto Johan Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu Syamsul Ma'arif Syarifuddin, Ferry Syarifuddin, Ferry Syauqi, Muhamad Sylvia Sandyazmara Devi Tambunan, Martua Eliakim Tanti Novianti Tanti Novianti TB Nur Ahmad Maulana Tb. N Ahmad Maulana, Tb. N Ahmad Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Tubagus Nur Ahmad Maulana Tubagus Nur Ahmad Maulana Tubagus Nur Ahmad Maulana Tutut Sunarminto Usman - Vidyatmoko, Dyan Widhiyanto, Iman Widyastutik Winardi Winardi Winardi, Winardi Winoto, Joyo Wiwiek Rindayati Wonny A. Ridwan Yantu, M. R. Yati Nuryati Yenna Sri Mardiana Yulismi, Yulismi Yusman Syaukat Yusman Syaukat